Using prediction market data for measuring the expected closeness in electoral research

Strijbis, Oliver; Arnesen, Sveinung; Bernhard, Laurent

doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2016.07.006

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

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“…Rhode and Strumpf (2004) highlight this characteristic of the data stating that "another indication of the predictive power of the betting markets is that they were highly successful in identifying those elections […] that would be very close." Others have also previously used prediction market data as a measure of closeness (Strijbis, Arnesen, and Bernhard 2016;Wall, Costello, and Lindsay 2017) or to similarly capture people's expectations on election outcomes (Erikson 2016). Wall, Costello, and Lindsay (2017) use betting odds data to identify shifts in the behavior of the electorate prior to the election.…”

Section: How Historical Election Betting Markets Produced Accurate Fo...mentioning

confidence: 99%

How the American Public Perceived Electoral Competition in the States during the Pre-poll Era: A Prediction Market Data Analysis of the 1896 Presidential Election

Perez

2022

State Politics Policy Q.

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This study uses prediction market data from the nation’s historical election betting markets to measure electoral competition in the American states during the era before the advent of scientific polling. Betting odds data capture ex ante expectations of electoral closeness in the aggregate, and as such improve upon existing measures of competition based on election returns data. Situated in an analysis of the 1896 presidential election and its associated realignment, I argue that the market odds data show that people were able to anticipate the realignment and that expectations on the outcome in the states influenced voter turnout. Findings show that a month ahead of the election betting markets accurately forecast a McKinley victory in most states. This study further demonstrates that the market predictions identify those states where electoral competition would increase or decline that year and the consequences of these expected partisanship shifts on turnout. In places where the anticipation was for a close race voter expectations account for a turnout increase of as much as 6%. Participation dropped by 1%–6% in states perceived as becoming electorally uncompetitive. The results support the conversion and dealignment theories from the realignment literature.

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Section: How Historical Election Betting Markets Produced Accurate Fo...mentioning

confidence: 99%

How the American Public Perceived Electoral Competition in the States during the Pre-poll Era: A Prediction Market Data Analysis of the 1896 Presidential Election

Perez

2022

State Politics Policy Q.

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Downs Wettbewerbs-These im Test: Eine Studie zu den österreichischen Bürgermeisterdirektwahlen

Mühlböck,

Mitter,

Obermair

2023

Z Vgl Polit Wiss

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Does the expectation of a close race drive more people to vote? Despite increasingly intensified electoral competition and hardened fronts at all political levels over the last decades, a decline in turnout rates can be observed representing a puzzling development. Though there are anomalies, previous studies show a clear trend towards a positive association between a close race and an increase in turnout. Based on the idea of the “rational choice” theory, the prospect of a close or undecided race increases the subjective weight of the individual vote, which drives more voters to the ballot box. In fact, ‘expected Closeness’ is one of the most frequently tested independent variables in voter turnout research. However, the factor is only measured ex-post in most cases. Such measurements use the results of the actual election to infer the ‘Closeness’ of the race. However, these measurement methods are less valid because they do not measure ‘Closeness’ in the decisive period before the election takes place. We want to contribute a test of the effect by analysing all runoff elections in Austrian direct mayoral elections since 1991 as they allow for ex-ante measurement. The first ballots and the runoffs are temporally close. Thus, the first vote results serve as a direct indicator of the ‘expected Closeness’ in the second round of voting. The electorate changes, if at all, only insignificantly between the ballots. In addition, socio-economic factors influencing voter turnout can be kept constant, increasing the validity of the test. The results of this study underline the positive and independent effect of ‘Closeness’ on the turnout of the election. The closer a mayoral race in Austria is in the first round, the higher is the turnout in the following runoff elections. The study also presents the independent and strong effects of socioeconomic factors on turnout. Our research not only provides a valid test of the effect of ‘expected Closeness’ on voter turnout, it also constitutes pioneering work in complete data collection on all direct mayoral elections in Austria.

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Explaining variance in the accuracy of prediction markets

Strijbis

Arnesen

2019

International Journal of Forecasting

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Using prediction market data for measuring the expected closeness in electoral research

Cited by 3 publications

References 36 publications

How the American Public Perceived Electoral Competition in the States during the Pre-poll Era: A Prediction Market Data Analysis of the 1896 Presidential Election

How the American Public Perceived Electoral Competition in the States during the Pre-poll Era: A Prediction Market Data Analysis of the 1896 Presidential Election

Downs Wettbewerbs-These im Test: Eine Studie zu den österreichischen Bürgermeisterdirektwahlen

Explaining variance in the accuracy of prediction markets

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