Using national data to model the New Zealand radiation oncology workforce

Abstract

Introduction Demand for radiation therapy is expected to increase over time. In Aotearoa/New Zealand, the radiation oncology workforce experiences high numbers of clinical hours but an intervention rate that is lower than in comparable countries, suggesting unmet treatment need. Accurate models on the supply and demand for radiation oncologists (ROs) are needed to ensure adequate staffing levels. Methods We developed a demand model that predicted the future number of ROs required, using national data from the Radiation Oncology Collection (ROC) and a survey of ROs. Radiation therapy intervention and retreatment rates (IR/RTRs), and benign and non‐cancer conditions being treated, were derived from the ROC and applied to Census population projections. Survey data provided definitions of treatment by complexity, time spent in different activities and time available for work. Results were linked to radiation oncology workforce forecasts from a supply model developed by the Ministry of Health. Results The demand model showed that 85 ROs would be needed in 2031, if current IR/RTRs were maintained, an increase from 68 in 2021. The supply model predicted a decrease in ROs over time, leaving a significant shortfall. Model parameters could be modified to assess the impact of workforce or practice changes; more ROs would be needed if average working hours reduced or IR/RTRs increased. Conclusion Workforce models based on robust data collections are an important tool for workforce planning. The RO demand model presented here combines detailed information on treatment and work activities to provide credible estimates that can be used to inform actions on training, recruitment and retention.

Methods for health workforce projection model: systematic review and recommended good practice reporting guideline

“…Over 70 percent of studies concentrated in high-income countries. Single-country studies represented a range of countries, including Australia ( n = 3) [ 14 – 16 ], Canada ( n = 6) [ 17 – 22 ], Germany ( n = 1) [ 23 ], Ghana ( n = 2) [ 24 , 25 ], Guinea ( n = 1) [ 26 ], Ireland ( n = 1) [ 27 ], Jamaica ( n = 1) [ 28 ], Japan ( n = 1) [ 29 ], Kazakhstan ( n = 1) [ 30 ], Korea ( n = 1) [ 31 ], Lesotho ( n = 1) [ 32 ], Malawi ( n = 1) [ 33 ], New Zealand ( n = 2) [ 34 , 35 ], Portugal ( n = 1) [ 36 ], Saudi Arabia ( n = 1) [ 37 ], Serbia ( n = 1) [ 38 ], Singapore ( n = 2) [ 39 , 40 ], Spain ( n = 1) [ 41 ], Thailand ( n = 3) [ 42 – 44 ], the United Kingdom ( n = 2) [ 45 , 46 ], and the United States ( n = 6) [ 47 – 52 ]. The multiple-country study focused on 32 OECD countries [ 53 ].…”

Use of Novel National Data Sets to Monitor Chemotherapy Use and Outcomes: A Retrospective Cohort Study of Non–Small-Cell Lung Cancer in Aotearoa New Zealand

“…ACT-NOW will support medical oncology service improvements in a similar way to its radiation oncology counterpart. The national Radiation Oncology Collection 36 has modeled workforce requirements 37 and has potential to model changes to models of care and the placement of new radiation facilities. ACT-NOW can provide strategic support for contemporary cancer services planning of new models of SACT care 38 by understanding regional demand for SACT and patient travel to inform facility expansion or new treatment facility placement.…”

Radiotherapy-specific quality indicators at national level: How to make it happen

“…This increased interest for QIs is also evident in the field of oncology and even more specifically the field of radiation oncology (RO) [5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12]. RO involves a complex and multi-step process that calls for the development of a thorough quality assurance program within a quality management system that promotes continuous quality improvement through audits, risk assessment and quality indicators [13,14].…”