Using adaptive processes and adverse outcome pathways to develop meaningful, robust, and actionable environmental monitoring programs

Abstract

The primary goals of environmental monitoring are to indicate whether unexpected changes related to development are occurring in the physical, chemical, and biological attributes of ecosystems and to inform meaningful management intervention. Although achieving these objectives is conceptually simple, varying scientific and social challenges often result in their breakdown. Conceptualizing, designing, and operating programs that better delineate monitoring, management, and risk assessment processes supported by hypothesis-driven approaches, strong inference,

Increased size and relative abundance of migratory fishes observed near the Athabasca oil sands

“…Where a baseline data set is missing or deficient, the capability to detect change is compromised and alternative approaches are required. Here, techniques to evaluate environmental change used statistically defined and adaptive thresholds (Arciszewski et al 2017). Based on an adaptive baseline range of data, white sucker and walleye in the oil sands area of the .…”

“…Although these changes in the relative abundances during the non-spawning seasons may be important, the influence of low relative abundances observed during many sampling campaigns between 1987 and 2006 on the calculation of the bootstrapped thresholds affects their clear interpretation. Corresponding to the difficulty of identifying real change in monitoring data (Arciszewski et al 2017), some changes in the relative abundances of some species in some seasons at some locations may also be statistical anomalies or may be due to the minor influence of juveniles of these species.…”

“…In place of a robust estimate of an undisturbed baseline, an initial estimate can be derived, often from the first three years of data at a site. The initial estimate is made without assuming the existing conditions are acceptable, but does assume organisms can respond in measurable ways to new, modified, or progressively influential stressors Arciszewski et al 2017). This initial estimate of existing data, commonly set at 95%, is used to define a range of values predicted to occur in the future, assuming conditions influencing the biological attributes have remained stable over time.…”

“…In addition to confirmation, supporting evidence from parallel studies or more detailed, specific, and future studies may also be initiated to explore any hypothesized causes of the changes observed. In contrast, if no likely differences are observed, a new estimate of an expected range of observations is derived, including the new information (Arciszewski et al 2017).…”

An Adaptive Environmental Effects Monitoring Framework for Assessing the Influences of Liquid Effluents on Benthos, Water, and Sediments in Aquatic Receiving Environments

“…When implemented appropriately, EEM is a powerful approach and can (and should) be used to test the predictions made in environmental impact assessments (EIA) related to new projects (Duinker 1989;Buckley 1991;Smith 1991;Dipper et al 1998;Wood et al 2000). However, the integration of EEM with EIA is currently not common (Arciszewski et al 2017). Consequently, EEM has the potential to provide feedback to a project in an adaptive management context and to inform and improve future EIAs for similar and related projects.…”