Using a delphi technique to determine the likelihood and tourism impact of a Chikungunya outbreak in the United States

Basurto-Cedeño, Estefania; Pennington‐Gray, Lori; Court, Christa D.; Ferreira, João Pedro

doi:10.1080/13683500.2023.2177833

Cited by 3 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…Finally, Zika is a credible proxy for a hypothetical CHIKV outbreak. According to Basurto-Cedeño et al (2023), in the U.S. and its territories, outbreaks of CHIKV and Zika viruses have been reported frequently from 2004 to 2018, and experts suggest that CHIKV outbreak consequences might be similar to previous experiences with Zika outbreaks.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Both Zika and CHIKV are linked to the spread of the same mosquito. According to Basurto-Cedeño et al (2023), both diseases are expected to occur during summertime in Florida when the weather is warmer and humidity levels are high. This has important consequences on our impact analysis as it means that the outbreak is expected to happen off-season in the Miami area.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…While CHIKV cases remain rare in the U.S., locally acquired cases were reported between 2014 and 2016 in both Florida and Texas. According to Basurto-Cedeño et al (2023), experts agree that CHIKV outbreaks are highly likely to happen in the future, but the extent and duration of such an outbreak will depend on environmental factors and mitigation strategies that are put in place.…”

Section: Chikungunya Virusmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this work, we simulate the local economic impacts of a hypothetical CHIKV outbreak in South Florida to provide information and insights for emergency response exercises and for decision-making processes related to public health and tourism. To establish our assumptions, we estimate the lodging-related impacts of the Zika outbreak that occurred in the Wynwood area of Miami, Florida in 2016, which is assumed to be a credible proxy for a CHIKV outbreak (Basurto-Cedeño et al, 2023). Then, we assume a similar decline in the average occupancy rate for three geographic areas in Florida, the Wynwood neighborhood of Miami, Miami-Dade County, and Orlando, following a hypothetical CHIKV outbreak.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…According to Khan et al (2014), Miami is a destination with one of the highest levels of air travelers from origins where CHIKV is endemic (e.g., Jamaica, Saint Martin, Honduras). Together, all these factors suggest that there is a high likelihood in Miami (or any other important tourism destination in the Southeast U.S.) of the importation of CHIKV via international travel with the possibility of such an incident resulting in a local outbreak (Basurto-Cedeño et al, 2023).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Using the 2016 Zika outbreak to estimate the potential tourism impacts of a Chikungunya event in Florida

et al. 2023

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Chikungunya virus (CHIKV), a mosquito-borne illness, is increasing in prevalence worldwide, and experts have warned of the imminence of an outbreak in the Southern Gulf Region of the United States (U.S.). Tourist destinations such as Miami and Orlando in Florida are among the most likely places for an outbreak to occur. The decline in attractiveness of a destination due to the outbreak, combined with the restrictive measures implemented to combat the outbreak, have the potential to significantly impact tourism-dependent local economies. This study is unique in that it estimates the potential economic impacts on tourism of an unprecedented outbreak, in this case CHIKV events in the U.S. For this, declines in tourism that followed the 2016 Zika virus outbreak in the Wynwood area of Miami, Florida are assessed to provide insights on the potential size and scope of the shock on tourism resulting from a CHIKV event. Results suggest that a CHIKV outbreak can lead to losses of approximately US$ 30 million in sales and nearly 250 jobs in the Wynwood area alone. Other popular tourist destinations such as Orlando could suffer significant losses of more than 2,500 jobs and US$ 300 million in sales. Estimating the potential losses associated with tourism declines resulting from a CHIKV outbreak provides data and insights to decision-makers that are considering policy measures aimed at preventing, preparing for, or mitigating the impacts of such events. This is particularly relevant as new advances are being made in the development of a CHIKV vaccine.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Chikungunya Virusmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Using the 2016 Zika outbreak to estimate the potential tourism impacts of a Chikungunya event in Florida

et al. 2023

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Development of ice and snow tourism destinations in China: ecological security assessment and obstacle degree analysis

Yu,

Kong,

Yang

et al. 2024

Current Issues in Tourism

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Vaccine Hesitancy Among Us Travelers

Pennington-Gray,

Basurto-Cedeno,

Court

et al. 2024

Tourism Analysis

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Diseases are increasing in prevalence around the world. American travelers are at greater risk of contracting the disease when traveling outside the country to an endemic region. The safety of visitors to mosquito-endemic destinations is more important than ever. Because a vaccine does not exist for prevention or as a prophylactic, tourists are in jeopardy of fatal sicknesses. Thus, if a vaccine existed, it would be important to understand the likelihood of taking such a vaccine. This study sought to identify specific demographic and attitudinal variables which may be the best predictors of the likelihood of getting a chikungunya vaccine. An online survey of U.S. travelers intending to travel to the Caribbean in the next 3-5 years was asked to respond to questions related to personal protection motivations, behaviors, and knowledge of chikungunya. Hierarchical logistic regression was used to determine the best predictor of getting a CHIK vaccine. Results suggested that the best predictor of getting the vaccine was Trust. Using scenarios and predicting the use of vaccines in today's environment are effective ways of determining vaccine support and the likelihood of engaging in this personal protective behavior. Such efforts can improve ways to manage, control, and message regarding chikungunya.

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Using a delphi technique to determine the likelihood and tourism impact of a Chikungunya outbreak in the United States

Cited by 3 publications

References 8 publications

Using the 2016 Zika outbreak to estimate the potential tourism impacts of a Chikungunya event in Florida

Using the 2016 Zika outbreak to estimate the potential tourism impacts of a Chikungunya event in Florida

Development of ice and snow tourism destinations in China: ecological security assessment and obstacle degree analysis

Vaccine Hesitancy Among Us Travelers

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