Use of earth observation-derived hydrometeorological variables to model and predict rotavirus infection (MAL-ED): a multisite cohort study

Colston, Josh M.; Zaitchik, Benjamin F.; Kang, Gagandeep; Yori, Pablo Peñataro; Ahmed, Tahmeed; Lima, Aldo A. M.; Turab, Ali; Mduma, Esto; Shrestha, Prakash; Bessong, Pascal; Peng, Roger D.; Black, Robert E.; Moulton, Lawrence H.; Kosek, Margaret

doi:10.1016/s2542-5196(19)30084-1

Cited by 23 publications

(47 citation statements)

References 38 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Considering that infectious virus persists not only on surfaces but also in aerosolization of virus-laden dust particles 26 , it is logical to deduce that viral survival in the air can be reduced by these factors, thus resulting in the decreased detection. These findings are also in agreement with previous modeling results that rotavirus transmission is enhanced when aerosols are able to linger in slow-moving air and inhibited by stronger winds that transport particles away from susceptible individuals 27 .…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

Etiological, epidemiological, and clinical features of acute diarrhea in China

et al. 2021

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

National-based prospective surveillance of all-age patients with acute diarrhea was conducted in China between 2009‒2018. Here we report the etiological, epidemiological, and clinical features of the 152,792 eligible patients enrolled in this analysis. Rotavirus A and norovirus are the two leading viral pathogens detected in the patients, followed by adenovirus and astrovirus. Diarrheagenic Escherichia coli and nontyphoidal Salmonella are the two leading bacterial pathogens, followed by Shigella and Vibrio parahaemolyticus. Patients aged <5 years had higher overall positive rate of viral pathogens, while bacterial pathogens were more common in patients aged 18‒45 years. A joinpoint analysis revealed the age-specific positivity rate and how this varied for individual pathogens. Our findings fill crucial gaps of how the distributions of enteropathogens change across China in patients with diarrhea. This allows enhanced identification of the predominant diarrheal pathogen candidates for diagnosis in clinical practice and more targeted application of prevention and control measures.

show abstract

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

Etiological, epidemiological, and clinical features of acute diarrhea in China

et al. 2021

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…A second binary dummy variable was therefore introduced corresponding to whether the subject was in the 'treatment' (Peru) or 'control' cohorts (the other seven sites) [37]. To adjust for background cyclical trends due to disease seasonality, terms for the interactions between annual and biannual Fourier-series sine and cosine functions terms and indicator variables for the eight sites were included in the model with the terms for the main effect omitted, thus allowing for up to two annual peaks and differences in their site-specific timing and magnitude [39,40]. In addition, the non-linear effect of age was modeled using linear, quadratic and cubic terms for the child's age in continuous months.…”

Section: Exposure Variablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pathogen-Specific Impacts of the 2011–2012 La Niña-Associated Floods on Enteric Infections in the MAL-ED Peru Cohort: A Comparative Interrupted Time Series Analysis

Colston

Olórtegui

Zaitchik

et al. 2020

IJERPH

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Extreme floods pose multiple direct and indirect health risks. These risks include contamination of water, food, and the environment, often causing outbreaks of diarrheal disease. Evidence regarding the effects of flooding on individual diarrhea-causing pathogens is limited, but is urgently needed in order to plan and implement interventions and prioritize resources before climate-related disasters strike. This study applied a causal inference approach to data from a multisite study that deployed broadly inclusive diagnostics for numerous high-burden common enteropathogens. Relative risks (RRs) of infection with each pathogen during a flooding disaster that occurred at one of the sites—Loreto, Peru—were calculated from generalized linear models using a comparative interrupted time series framework with the other sites as a comparison group and adjusting for background seasonality. During the early period of the flood, increased risk of heat-stable enterotoxigenic E. coli (ST-ETEC) was identified (RR = 1.73 [1.10, 2.71]) along with a decreased risk of enteric adenovirus (RR = 0.36 [0.23, 0.58]). During the later period of the flood, sharp increases in the risk of rotavirus (RR = 5.30 [2.70, 10.40]) and sapovirus (RR = 2.47 [1.79, 3.41]) were observed, in addition to increases in transmission of Shigella spp. (RR = 2.86 [1.81, 4.52]) and Campylobacter spp. (RR = 1.41 (1.01, 1.07). Genotype-specific exploratory analysis reveals that the rise in rotavirus transmission during the flood was likely due to the introduction of a locally atypical, non-vaccine (G2P[4]) strain of the virus. Policy-makers should target interventions towards these pathogens—including vaccines as they become available—in settings where vulnerability to flooding is high as part of disaster preparedness strategies, while investments in radical, transformative, community-wide, and locally-tailored water and sanitation interventions are also needed.

show abstract

“…As rotavirus cases are reduced through widespread vaccination, the overall positive association between temperature and diarrhea could strengthen, as cases of rotavirus diarrhea may be averted during cooler periods. Other studies have demonstrated rotavirus vaccination shifting or diminishing the seasonality of rotavirus infections [ 24 – 26 ] and that the association between meteorologic factors and rotavirus infections varies between settings with and without ongoing rotavirus vaccination [ 27 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Meteorological factors and childhood diarrhea in Peru, 2005–2015: a time series analysis of historic associations, with implications for climate change

et al. 2021

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Background Global temperatures are projected to rise by ≥2 °C by the end of the century, with expected impacts on infectious disease incidence. Establishing the historic relationship between temperature and childhood diarrhea is important to inform future vulnerability under projected climate change scenarios. Methods We compiled a national dataset from Peruvian government data sources, including weekly diarrhea surveillance records, annual administered doses of rotavirus vaccination, annual piped water access estimates, and daily temperature estimates. We used generalized estimating equations to quantify the association between ambient temperature and childhood (< 5 years) weekly reported clinic visits for diarrhea from 2005 to 2015 in 194 of 195 Peruvian provinces. We estimated the combined effect of the mean daily high temperature lagged 1, 2, and 3 weeks, in the eras before (2005–2009) and after (2010–2015) widespread rotavirus vaccination in Peru and examined the influence of varying levels of piped water access. Results Nationally, an increase of 1 °C in the temperature across the three prior weeks was associated with a 3.8% higher rate of childhood clinic visits for diarrhea [incidence rate ratio (IRR): 1.04, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.03–1.04]. Controlling for temperature, there was a significantly higher incidence rate of childhood diarrhea clinic visits during moderate/strong El Niño events (IRR: 1.03, 95% CI: 1.01–1.04) and during the dry season (IRR: 1.01, 95% CI: 1.00–1.03). Nationally, there was no evidence that the association between temperature and the childhood diarrhea rate changed between the pre- and post-rotavirus vaccine eras, or that higher levels of access to piped water mitigated the effects of temperature on the childhood diarrhea rate. Conclusions Higher temperatures and intensifying El Niño events that may result from climate change could increase clinic visits for childhood diarrhea in Peru. Findings underscore the importance of considering climate in assessments of childhood diarrhea in Peru and globally, and can inform regional vulnerability assessments and mitigation planning efforts.

show abstract

Use of earth observation-derived hydrometeorological variables to model and predict rotavirus infection (MAL-ED): a multisite cohort study

Cited by 23 publications

References 38 publications

Etiological, epidemiological, and clinical features of acute diarrhea in China

Etiological, epidemiological, and clinical features of acute diarrhea in China

Pathogen-Specific Impacts of the 2011–2012 La Niña-Associated Floods on Enteric Infections in the MAL-ED Peru Cohort: A Comparative Interrupted Time Series Analysis

Meteorological factors and childhood diarrhea in Peru, 2005–2015: a time series analysis of historic associations, with implications for climate change

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About