Unsupervised analysis of COVID-19 pandemic evolution in brazilian states: Vaccination Scenario

Cassão, Victor; Alves, Domingos; Mioto, Ana Clara de Andrade; Mozini, Mariana Tavares; Segamarchi, Renan Barbieri; Miyoshi, Newton Shydeo Brandão

doi:10.1016/j.procs.2023.01.435

Cited by 1 publication

(1 citation statement)

References 11 publications

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“…This work uses daily historical data from each state for the number of cases (infections), deaths (absolute number of deaths), and number of vaccinated individuals available at https://github.com/wcota/covid19br 31 which aggregates data from at least two main sources 2 : the Ministry of Health 1 and Brasil.IO 32 . Previous works use the same data source in their analysis (see, for example, Araújo et al 33 , Badr et al 34 , Cassão et al 35 , Aragão et al 36 , and Almeida et al 37 ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Preventable COVID-19 cases and deaths by alternative vaccination and non-pharmacological intervention policies in Brazil

Araújo,

Almeida,

Rodrigues

et al. 2023

Rev. bras. epidemiol.

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Objective: This work aimed to estimate the avoidable COVID-19 cases and deaths with the anticipation of vaccination, additional doses, and effective non-pharmacological interventions in Brazil. Methods: We developed a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered-susceptible model based on epidemiological indicators of morbidity and mortality derived from data obtained from the Health Information System of the Ministry of Health of Brazil. The number of cases and deaths was estimated for different scenarios of vaccination programs and non-pharmacological interventions in the states of Brazil (from March 8, 2020, to June 5, 2022). Results: The model-based estimate showed that 40 days of vaccination anticipation, additional vaccine doses, and a higher level the nonpharmacological interventions would reduce and delay the pandemic peak. The country would have 17,121,749 fewer COVID-19 cases and 391,647 avoidable deaths Conclusion: The results suggest that if 80% of the Brazilian population had been vaccinated by May 2021, 59.83% of deaths would have been avoided in Brazil.

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