Uniform global deforestation patterns — An empirical analysis

Köthke, Margret; Leischner, Bettina; Elsasser, Peter

doi:10.1016/j.forpol.2013.01.001

Cited by 43 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 56 publications

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“…Increases in human population densities up to about 30 km −2 are associated with reductions in tree cover down to about 50% (Figure 12), in line with the regression line established at national scale by Köthke et al (2013). The highest population densities can have a tree cover of around 20% while the lowest tree cover is found with lower population densities (probably in intensively used agricultural areas).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 75%

“…A spatial pattern of trees close to and far away from settlements was interpreted by Von Thünen (1842) on the basis of distance-dependent costs of maintenance and protection versus value of the resource as a Theory of Place (ToP). Common versions use time, population density or distance to cities as the X-axis (Van Noordwijk et al 1997;Angelsen and Rudel 2013;Köthke et al 2013;Matthews et al 2014;Minang et al 2014a;Jouvet and Wolfersberger 2015). The theory provides a unified scheme for the multiplicity of changes (including in direction and rate of change) of tree cover that can take place at local and national scales.…”

Section: Forest-transition Theorymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Expanding on existing analyses of forest-transition theory at national scale (Köthke et al 2013(Köthke et al , 2014, we changed the unit of analysis from country to sub-basin scale, which aligned with ecosystem services and local land governance within nested subnational, national and global systems. We conducted a cluster analysis of subbasins based on two main factors: (1) land-use/cover composition and (2) forest configuration.…”

Section: An Operational Forest-transition Typologymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Globally, there is no statistical relationship ( Figure 1) between an aggregated Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) performance metric (Sachs et al 2016) and forest cover, once the latter is adjusted for human population density on the basis of a global relationship (Köthke et al 2013). On one hand, this indicates that forest conservation is not essential for achieving the SDG; on the other, that it isn't a hindrance either.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Extrapolation errors from 'case study' data can affect the three dimensions of usable knowledge (Clark, van Kerkhoff, et al 2016;Clark, Tomich, et al 2016): (1) salience of the underlying research (not being relevant to decisions in the actual context); (2) credibility (underlying data or system descriptions might appear to be unrelated to Figure 1. Relationship between the aggregated Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) score (Sachs et al 2016) and the difference in forest cover between what is reported and expected on the basis of human population density (Köthke et al 2013); SL indicates countries included in the sentinel landscape portfolio.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Tropical forest-transition landscapes: a portfolio for studying people, tree crops and agro-ecological change in context

Dewi

Noordwijk

Zulkarnain

et al. 2017

International Journal of Biodiversity Science, Ecosystem Servic

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Nudging the development trajectory of tropical landscapes towards sustainability requires a global commitment and policies that take diverse contexts and forest transitions into account. Out-scaling and upscaling landscape-level actions to achieve sustainable development goals globally need to be based on understanding of extrapolation domains and interconnectivity of products and services. We evaluated three portfolios of tropical landscape observatories and quantified extrapolation domains across ecological zones, stages of forest transition, human development index (HDI), population density and potential prominence of four dominant tropical tree crops (arabica coffee, cacao, rubber and oil palm). The ASB Partnership for Tropical Forest Margins portfolio was focussed on active humid forest margins and the Poverty and Environment Network on early stages of forest transition. The portfolio of sentinel landscapes of the Forests, Trees and Agroforestry (FTA) research programme provides a 5% sample of pantropical area, 8% of people, 9% of tree cover and 10-12% of potential tree crop presence, with quantified biases across zones, transition stages and HDI. In the 'water tower' configuration, relatively high population density coincides with biodiversity, coffee expansion and contested ecosystem services. The extrapolation domain of the FTA portfolio includes trade-off (tree loss) and synergy (restoration) phases of tropical forest transition. ARTICLE HISTORY

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 75%

Section: Forest-transition Theorymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: An Operational Forest-transition Typologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Tropical forest-transition landscapes: a portfolio for studying people, tree crops and agro-ecological change in context

Dewi

Noordwijk

Zulkarnain

et al. 2017

International Journal of Biodiversity Science, Ecosystem Servic

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Bioenergy and Biodiversity: Key Lessons from the Pan American Region

Kline

Martinelli

Mayer

et al. 2015

Environmental Management

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Understanding how large-scale bioenergy production can affect biodiversity and ecosystems is important if society is to meet current and future sustainable development goals. A variety of bioenergy production systems have been established within different contexts throughout the Pan American region, with wide-ranging results in terms of documented and projected effects on biodiversity and ecosystems. The Pan American region is home to the majority of commercial bioenergy production and therefore the region offers a broad set of experiences and insights on both conflicts and opportunities for biodiversity and bioenergy. This paper synthesizes lessons learned focusing on experiences in Canada, the United States, and Brazil regarding the conflicts that can arise between bioenergy production and ecological conservation, and benefits that can be derived when bioenergy policies promote planning and more sustainable land-management systems. We propose a research agenda to address priority information gaps that are relevant to biodiversity concerns and related policy challenges in the Pan American region.

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