Understanding the future of lithium: Part 1, resource model

Abstract

Lithium is a critical energy material in part due to an array of emerging technologies from electric vehicles to renewable energy systems that rely on large‐format lithium ion batteries. Recent growth in demand for lithium is primarily from increased use in batteries, which comprised 46% of total lithium by end use in 2017. These technologies are often deployed to improve environmental sustainability, yet the environmental effects and sustainability of the resources they rely on are often not well understood, especially as demand increases over time. This is the first in a two part article series that together quantify the lithium resource use and its environmental effects over time by coupling a resource production model and life cycle assessment model. In this first part, a novel resource production model is developed to create scenarios of future lithium demand and production characteristics (e.g., timing, location, and ore type). These scenarios are then used to create a life cycle assessment in part two that captures temporal and spatial changes in production systems over time. Results of the resource production model show global lithium resources range from 293 to 527 million metric tons (Mt) of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE). Global production will likely increase from 237,000 metric tons LCE in 2018 to 4.4–7.5 Mt LCE/year by 2100. Even with rapidly increasing demand, production from high‐grade brines may satisfy most lithium demand through 2035. Though resources can meet demand through 2100, development of lower grade and unfavorable deposits is likely required after 2050.

Understanding the future of lithium: Part 2, temporally and spatially resolved life‐cycle assessment modeling

“…The methods used to develop the resource model are available in part one of this article series (Ambrose & Kendall ); here, we discuss the development of the LCA model.…”

“…Two key issues for LIBs and emerging technologies that rely on lithium batteries are resource constraints and environmental impacts that occur during production. Growth in demand for LIBs across a number of sectors is already placing strains on current lithium production capabilities, and will likely move production to increasingly low‐grade resources over time (Ambrose & Kendall, ; Helbig, Bradshaw, Wietschel, Thorenz, & Tuma, ). It is unclear how the dynamics of supply and demand will affect the life‐cycle environmental impacts of lithium, and thereby, the environmental impacts of technologies that rely on LIBs.…”

“…This article is the second in a two‐part series. Part one (Ambrose & Kendall, ) developed a forecast of lithium demand and coupled it with a spatially resolved resource model to predict, at the resolution of identified deposits, the primary lithium resource production over time from 2018 to 2100. Part two uses the results presented in part one to develop a temporally and spatially resolved life‐cycle assessment (LCA) of lithium that reflects the changing sources of lithium expected to be dispatched over time.…”

“…In the conservative scenario, global production increases from 237 thousand metric tons LCE in 2018, to 4.4 million metric tons LCE/year by 2100. The results of the resource model suggest that production from high‐grade brines could be sufficient to satisfy the majority of demand through 2035, but sustained future demand will require the development of lower grade and unfavorable deposits (Ambrose & Kendall, ).…”

Bringing a life cycle perspective to emerging technology development

“…There are a set of papers that investigate the specific challenges of conducting LCA of emerging technologies related to novel materials through a set of case studies. There is a two‐part set of papers titled “Understanding the future of lithium: Part 1, resource model” (Ambrose & Kendall, ) and “Understanding the future of lithium: Part 2, temporally and spatially resolved life‐cycle assessment modeling” (Ambrose & Kendall, ). These papers investigate the increasing role that lithium could play in the economy in the future using a novel resource model to generate scenarios of demand including location, production method, and grade of the lithium produced.…”