Understanding Epidemic Data and Statistics: A Case Study of COVID-19

Dehkordi, Amirhoshang Hoseinpour; Alizadeh, Majid; Derakhshan, Pegah; Babazadeh, Peyman; Jahandideh, Arash

doi:10.1101/2020.03.15.20036418

Cited by 25 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…This article provides a quantitative measure for the impact of health care capacity on CFR. For this purpose, our previous method for CFR estimation [4] was leveraged to compare the fatality rate for critical cases who did and did not receive intensive care. Further, this work addresses the inconsistencies observed in COVID-19 CFR reported in different geographical regions.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The estimated CFRs were calculated using the regression method described in [4]. Briefly, an optimum phase lag for the number of deaths is calculated for which the distribution of daily confirmed cases and number of deaths have linear relationship.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Optimum phase lag is calculated by minimizing an error for the regression line namely, absolute minimum error (MAE), while changing the phase lag. Using this regression method, optimum phase lags and in turn CFRs were calculated for different COVID-19 hotspots [4].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In their work, optimum phase lag was calculated by minimizing the error for the regression line while changing the phase lag. Then, CFR for that region was corrected by dividing the number of deaths on a specific date by the total number of confirmed cases on a shifted date (based on the optimum phase lag) Dehkordi et al [4].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Such infected population ratio will then be used to estimate the number of positive cases in other age groups. Furthermore, using corrected estimated CFR (based on our previous work [4]), we provide a new perspective on the importance of healthcare system capacity. Importantly, a quantitative measure for comparing the access vs no access to ICU beds for critical cases, in terms of fatality rate, will be provided.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A deeper look at COVID-19 CFR: health care impact and roots of discrepancy

Dehkordi

Nemati

Tavousi

2020

Preprint

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A Intensive care capacity and proper testing play a paramount role in the COVID-19 Case Fatality Rate (CFR). Nevertheless, the real impact of such important measures has not been appreciated due to the lack of proper metrics. In this work, we have proposed a method for estimating a lower bound for the number of positive cases by using the reported data on the oldest age group and the regions' population distributions. The proposed estimation method improved the expected similarity between the age-distribution of positive cases and regions' population. Further, we have provided a quantitative measure for the impact of intensive care on the critical cases by comparing the CFR among those who did and did not receive intensive care. Our findings showed that the chance of living among non-ICU receivers is less than half of ICU receivers (∼24% vs ∼60%).

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A deeper look at COVID-19 CFR: health care impact and roots of discrepancy

Dehkordi

Nemati

Tavousi

2020

Preprint

Self Cite

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The association between the incidence of COVID-19 and the distance from the virus epicenter in Iran

et al. 2020

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Since the first official report of the spread of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the city of Qom in mid-February, Iran has become the country most affected by the COVID-19 epidemic in the Middle East. All Iranian provinces are now affected, although to a different extent. The aim of the present study was to evaluate whether the distance from the epicenter of the infection (Qom) or demographic factors such as population density and the ratio of the elderly population are associated with the incidence of COVID-19 in different Iranian provinces. For the purpose of determining whether the distance from the virus epicenter could be associated with the spread of infection, linear regression analysis was performed using STATA 12.0 software. The association of the incidence of COVID-19 with the population density and the ratio of the population over 65 years old in 31 Iranian provinces was also evaluated. According to our results, a strong association was found between the incidence of COVID-19 in Iranian provinces and their respective distance from Qom (p < 0.001; C =-0.68). The incidence of COVID-19 in Iranian provinces was also positively associated with the ratio of the population over 65 years old (p = 0.002; C = 0.53), while no significant association with population density was found (p = 0.39; C = 0.16). These results suggest that the implementation of travel restrictions from highly affected areas to other provinces could considerably reduce the rate of transmission of the disease throughout the country. Also, provinces with a higher proportion of elderly people (over 65) were identified as particularly at risk for the spread of SARS-CoV-2 infections. These results will contribute to better management of the COVID-19 outbreak in Iran, taking into account demographic and geographic characteristics of different provinces.

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Qualitative analysis of a mathematical model with presymptomatic individuals and two SARS-CoV-2 variants

González-Parra

Arenas

2021

Comp. Appl. Math.

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The SARS-CoV-2 continues to spread across the world. During this COVID-19 pandemic, several variants of the SARS-CoV-2 have been found. Some of these new variants like the VOC-202012/01 of lineage B.1.1.7 or the most recently B.1.617 emerging in India have a higher infectiousness than those previously prevalent. We propose a mathematical model based on ordinary differential equations to investigate potential consequences of the appearance of a new more transmissible SARS-CoV-2 strain in a given region. The proposed mathematical model incorporates the presymptomatic and asymptomatic subpopulations in addition to the more usual susceptible, exposed, infected, and recovered subpopulations. This is important from a realistic point of view since it has been found recently that presymptomatic and asymptomatic individuals are relevant spreaders of the SARS-CoV-2. Using the next-generation matrix method, we find the basic reproduction number, , an important threshold parameter that provides insight regarding the evolution and outcome of a certain instance of the COVID-19 pandemic. The local and global stability of system equilibria are also presented. In particular, for the global stability we construct a Lyapunov functional and use the LaSalle invariant principle to prove that if the basic reproduction ratio is less than unity, the infection-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. On the other hand, if the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. Finally, we present numerical simulations to numerically support the analytic results and to show the impact of the introduction of a new more contagious SARS-CoV-2 variant in a population.

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Understanding Epidemic Data and Statistics: A Case Study of COVID-19

Cited by 25 publications

References 19 publications

A deeper look at COVID-19 CFR: health care impact and roots of discrepancy

A deeper look at COVID-19 CFR: health care impact and roots of discrepancy

The association between the incidence of COVID-19 and the distance from the virus epicenter in Iran

Qualitative analysis of a mathematical model with presymptomatic individuals and two SARS-CoV-2 variants

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