Uncertainties and sensitivities in the quantification of future tropical cyclone risk

Meiler, Simona; Ciullo, Alessio; Kropf, Chahan M.; Emanuel, Kerry; Bresch, David N.

doi:10.1038/s43247-023-00998-w

Cited by 4 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 56 publications

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“…These aspects also influence the sensitivity analysis. In a previous study, we interpreted the importance of the GCM choice for MIT-based TC risk change estimates as an indication of the relatively advanced state of modeling of TC hazard, and a consequence of the greater complexity of the MIT model, compared to the exposure and vulnerability models (28). However, our current findings suggest a different narrative, especially when comparing the MIT model with CHAZ.…”

Section: Implications For Interpretation Of Results Model Development...mentioning

confidence: 60%

“…This difference is particularly notable when contrasting results from the two statistical-dynamical TC hazard models CHAZ and MIT. In a previous study solely based on MIT TC hazards, we discovered a positive relationship between the climate sensitivity of GCMs used to downscale TCs and the corresponding increase in TC risk (28). This increase is linked to the scaling of TC potential intensity with global warming (48), which in turn is a strong predictor for TC genesis potential indices (49)(50)(51).…”

Section: Hazard Model-specific Findingsmentioning

confidence: 76%

“…We systematically quantify uncertainties and sensitivities in future TC risk change estimates in the middle and at the end of the century, encompassing uncertainties in all risk model components: hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Contrasting results from two previous studies assessing uncertainties and sensitivities in the quantification of future TC risks, each using a different TC hazard model, show that the results of such uncertainty and sensitivity quantification depend on the scope of the study, which is defined a priori by investigator choice -in other words, uncertainty assessment is itself uncertain (16,28,29).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 73%

“…4 and Supplementary Fig. (28). Thus while the choice of vulnerability function is highly influential on the total risk that we calculate, this influence is much less apparent when we compare changes in risk calculated with the same vulnerability function.…”

Section: Sensitivity Of Future Tc Risk Change Across Hazard Modelsmentioning

confidence: 97%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Navigating uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of future tropical cyclone risk estimates

Meiler,

Kropf,

McCaughey

et al. 2024

Preprint

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Future tropical cyclone risks will evolve depending on climate change and socio-economic development, entailing significant uncertainties. An uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of future tropical cyclone risks is thus vital for robust decision-making and model improvement. However, the outcomes of such uncertainty and sensitivity analyses are tied to the chosen model setup, warranting caution in interpretation and extrapolation. Our study investigates how four distinct tropical cyclone hazard models and alternate representations of socio-economic development influence future tropical cyclone risk. We find that average tropical cyclone risk will increase 1-5 % by 2050 across all models and global study regions. The estimated maximum risk increases by 2100, in contrast, ranging from 10-400 % depending on the hazard model choice. The dominant source of uncertainty in these risk estimates changes with the specific risk model setup. Finally, we differentiate between aleatory, epistemic, and normative uncertainties, offering guidance to reduce these uncertainties and provide better-informed decision-making.

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Section: Implications For Interpretation Of Results Model Development...mentioning

confidence: 60%

Section: Hazard Model-specific Findingsmentioning

confidence: 76%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 73%

Section: Sensitivity Of Future Tc Risk Change Across Hazard Modelsmentioning

confidence: 97%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Navigating uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of future tropical cyclone risk estimates

Meiler,

Kropf,

McCaughey

et al. 2024

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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Investigating the link between Mainland-Indochina monsoon onset dates and cyclones over the Bay of Bengal basin

Oo,

Chen,

Dong

et al. 2024

Clim Dyn

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Typhoon and flooding occurrences on Chongming Island, Changjiang Estuary, as revealed by a newly acquired sedimentary record

Zhao,

Yang,

Jia

et al. 2024

Front. Mar. Sci.

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Typhoon-induced storms surges and river flooding events represent two types of natural disasters that affect a wide range, occurring with high frequency and causing serious societal losses. Due to the limited duration of instrumental records, there is an inadequate understanding of the patterns and mechanisms underlying the variations in typhoons and floods. The interpretation of sedimentary records aptly compensates for these deficiencies in terms of the temporal scale, becoming a crucial medium for extending the temporal span of typhoon and flood records. Previous studies in this field have primarily focused on the identification of single types of extreme events. The Changjiang Estuary, particularly Chongming Island, is significantly affected by both typhoons and river floods, making it an excellent area for synchronous comparative studies of these two types of extreme events. Based on the analysis of a core sample, ZP02, collected from Chongming Island, in terms of chronological, sedimentological, and geochemical characteristics, specific tracing fingerprints for event deposits from typhoon and flood events are established. Sediments from typhoon events generally exhibit erosive contact surfaces, coarser grain sizes, and a tendency to become finer upwards, often featuring layers mixed with coarse sand and shell fragments. In contrast, flood event deposits vary in grain size, either coarser or finer, with abrupt contact surfaces compared to normal sediment layers, and are predominantly brownish-yellow in color. The fingerprint tracing results indicate that the typhoon event layers are characterized by high values in principal component 2 (PC2) of the elements, Zr/Fe and Sr/Fe ratios, with low values in principal component 1 (PC1) the elements and Ti/Ca ratio. Flood event deposits are marked by high values in PC1 and Ti/Ca ratio, low values in PC2 and Sr/Fe ratio, and an increase in Zr/Fe ratio in coarser flood layers but no significant change in finer layers. Based on these fingerprints, 19 layers of typhoon and the same number of flood events were identified in core ZP02, which correspond well with documentary records. The establishment of tracing fingerprints for typhoon and flood event deposits provides methodological support for the identification and interpretation of various extreme event deposits.

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Uncertainties and sensitivities in the quantification of future tropical cyclone risk

Cited by 4 publications

References 56 publications

Navigating uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of future tropical cyclone risk estimates

Navigating uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of future tropical cyclone risk estimates

Investigating the link between Mainland-Indochina monsoon onset dates and cyclones over the Bay of Bengal basin

Typhoon and flooding occurrences on Chongming Island, Changjiang Estuary, as revealed by a newly acquired sedimentary record

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