Tropical cyclone characteristics associated with extreme precipitation in the northern Philippines

Racoma, Bernard Alan B.; Klingaman, Nicholas P.; Holloway, Christopher E.; Schiemann, R.; Bagtasa, Gerry

doi:10.1002/joc.7416

Cited by 12 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 52 publications

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“…Stronger TCs making landfall in Luzon have higher chances of causing extreme precipitation [5]. As shown in the results of our study, mechanical uplifts caused by stronger winds blowing up steeper slopes results in higher amounts of precipitation along the CMR (Figures 12d and 13).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 71%

“…The landfall dates and landfall intensities of these TCs are listed in Table 2. These TCs caused extreme precipitation based on the criteria defined by Racoma et al [5], where extreme precipitation is the area mean of precipitation over Luzon exceeding the local 95th percentile precipitation threshold. Additionally, in the initial model simulations, these TCs intensified along the Pacific Ocean, tracked from east to west, made landfall along Luzon, and then crossed the CMR in a westerly movement.…”

Section: Weather Research and Forecast Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Different TC tracks have different windward sides where precipitation could be orographically enhanced [4]. Using observations, another study by Racoma et al [5] confirmed that stronger TCs tend to produce more precipitation along the mountainous regions of Luzon. They investigated the overall statistical relationships between TC rainfall and TC characteristics (cyclogenesis, track, and intensity), and other environmental factors such as environmental moisture and seasonality.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Effect of the Cordillera Mountain Range on Tropical Cyclone Rainfall in the Northern Philippines

et al. 2023

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In this study, we examined the sensitivity of tropical cyclone (TC) characteristics and precipitation to the Cordillera Mountain Range (CMR) in Luzon, Philippines. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, we simulated eight TCs with four different CMR orographic elevations: Control, Flat, Reduced, and Enhanced. We found that at significance level α=0.05, TC intensity significantly weakened as early as 21 h prior to landfall in the Enhanced experiment relative to the Control, whereas there was little change in the Flat and Reduced experiments. However, throughout the period when the TC crossed Luzon, we found no significant differences for TC movement speed and position in the different orographic elevations. When a TC made landfall, associated precipitation over the CMR increased as the mountain height increased. We further investigated the underpinning processes relevant to the effect of the CMR on precipitation by examining the effects of mountain slope, incoming perpendicular wind speed, and the moist Froude Number (Fw). Compared with other factors, TC precipitation was most strongly correlated with the strength of approaching winds multiplied by the mountain slope, i.e., stronger winds blowing up steeper mountain slopes caused higher amounts of precipitation. We also found that individually, Fw, mountain height, and upslope wind speeds were poor indicators of orographically induced precipitation. The effects of mountain range on TC rainfall varied with TC cases, highlighting the complexity of the mountain, wind, and rainfall relationship.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 71%

Section: Weather Research and Forecast Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Effect of the Cordillera Mountain Range on Tropical Cyclone Rainfall in the Northern Philippines

et al. 2023

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“…No correlation was found between TC rainfall volume and TC minimum pressure or intensity, even if only landfalling TCs were considered. This despite TC minimum pressure has been shown to be inversely related to mean and extreme rainfall intensity (Bagtasa, 2021; Racoma et al ., 2021).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Variability of tropical cyclone rainfall volume in the Philippines

Bagtasa

2022

Intl Journal of Climatology

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This study investigates the variability of tropical cyclone (TC)-induced rainfall volume and its relation to the total rainfall in the Philippines. Of the total 1,843 TCs that formed in the western North Pacific (WNP) basin from 1951 to 2020, 983 (53%) and 1,253 (68%) TCs directly and indirectly, respectively, contributed 23.3% of the total rainfall on Philippine landmass. Total seasonal rainfall is negatively correlated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (February-May [FMAM] r = −0.71 and October-January [ONDJ] r = −0.77) except for the boreal summer months of June-September (JJAS) where no correlation was observed. Similarly, TC rain also shows a negative but weaker correlation with ENSO (FMAM r = −0.23 and ONDJ r = −0.33) except for JJAS, despite JJAS season having the highest TC rain contribution. Nevertheless, all top 90th percentile TC rain years occurred during La Niña and ENSO-neutral years, similar to the total rain. Rainfall volume from individual TCs depends mainly on its rain duration and the area of land affected. There are no significant trends found in annual and seasonal TC rainfall, but the frequency of extreme TCs with rainfall volume in the upper 95th percentile is dropping by 10%Ádecade −1 . Annual TC rain volume is most correlated with TC landfall frequency (r = 0.81). Despite the influence of ENSO on TC activity and tracks in the NWP region, the results in this study suggest that the use of the ENSO Niño3.4 index alone may not be enough for seasonal TC rainfall forecasts.

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“…The variability of the WPSH is closely related to the onset of both the Southwest Monsoon season -which happens in the months of June, July, August, and September -and the Northeast Monsoon season -which happens in the months of October, November, and December. Evaluating the cyclogenesis of typhoons between 1985-2010 reveal that typhoons, which are wetter, form closer to the Philippines during the Southwest Monsoon season while typhoons, which are drier, originate farther at sea during the Northeast Monsoon season [17]. Typhoons tend to move peripherally with respect to the southern and western sections of WPSH.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating the Increasing Trend of Strength and Severe Wind Hazard of Philippine Typhoons Using the Holland-B parameter and Regional Cyclonic Wind Field Modeling

Agar¹

2022

Preprint

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For the Philippines, a country exposed to multiple natural hazards like severe wind, sustainable development includes resiliency. Severe wind hazard is brought by tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific, known as typhoons, that frequent the Philippines. Therefore, adequately evaluating the wind hazard and its impact is crucial for sustainable building design. Acknowledging the impacts of climate change on said hazards would require adaptation to its consequences which necessitate a deeper understanding on the changing behavior of typhoons in recent years. For this study, detailed wind information from the Japan Meteorological Agency from 1977-2021, the Holland-B parameter, and the radius of maximum wind speed for each typhoon, are determined for simulation of the regional cyclonic wind field. The analysis of the Holland-B parameters, which represent the steepness of the pressure gradient and tropical cyclone convection, suggest that the Holland-B parameters have been increasing since 2011. The regional wind fields caused by the typhoons also suggest an increasing trend in severe wind hazard. Seasonality for the location of severe wind hazard is also observed, with the Southern Philippines experiencing an increase (decrease) during the Northeast (Southwest) Monsoon season, and the Northern Philippines experiencing an increase (decrease) during the Southwest (Northeast) Monsoon season.

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Tropical cyclone characteristics associated with extreme precipitation in the northern Philippines

Cited by 12 publications

References 52 publications

The Effect of the Cordillera Mountain Range on Tropical Cyclone Rainfall in the Northern Philippines

The Effect of the Cordillera Mountain Range on Tropical Cyclone Rainfall in the Northern Philippines

Variability of tropical cyclone rainfall volume in the Philippines

Evaluating the Increasing Trend of Strength and Severe Wind Hazard of Philippine Typhoons Using the Holland-B parameter and Regional Cyclonic Wind Field Modeling

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