Trends in Canadian streamflow

Zhang, Xuebin; Harvey, K.; Hogg, W. D.; Yuzyk, Ted R.

doi:10.1029/2000wr900357

Cited by 647 publications

(521 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…These include work in the US (Lins and Slack, 1999;Douglas et al, 2000), Scandinavia (Lindstrom and Bergstrom, 2004), Canada (Zhang et al, 2001;Burn and Hag Elnur, 2002;Yue and Wang, 2002) and more recently, a global assessment by Svensson et al (2005). These studies present evidence of significant variability, but there are many inherent obstacles to attributing observed trends to climate change.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For this reason, trend studies in the US (Lins andSlack, 1999, Douglas et al, 2000) and Canada (Adamowski and Bocci, 2001;Zhang et al, 2001;Burn and Hag Elnur, 2002;Yue and Wang, 2002) have capitalised on networks of undisturbed, natural catchments, such as the representative hydrometric basin network (RHBN) of Canada. The scope for such an approach in much of Europe is limited and in the UK, the task of identifying and interpreting trends in river flow regimes is particularly challenging because of the high degree of heterogeneity in catchment geology, land use and climate -and the pervasive impact of anthropogenic disturbances on flow regimes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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An assessment of trends in UK runoff and low flows using a network of undisturbed catchments

2006

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In many parts of the world attempts to discern climatic-driven changes in river flow patterns are hindered by the combined impact of other, more direct anthropogenic disturbances such as abstraction and impoundments. This study capitalises on a newly defined 'benchmark' network of natural catchments in the UK to discern natural variability in flow regimes. Trend tests were applied to time series of runoff and indicators of low-flow magnitude and duration for two study periods to assess the sensitivity of trends to the frame of reference over which tests were conducted. Notwithstanding the volatility of the recent past, the results demonstrate a general stability in runoff and low flows since the early 1960s. The strongest signal to emerge from the study is a positive runoff trend for catchments in Scotland, which was resilient to the effect of the study periods. There was also some indication of increasing runoff in maritime western areas of England and Wales. These increases in maritime areas are likely to reflect the dominance of westerly airflows in the recent past, associated with an increase in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index. For low flows, there were no compelling trends -significant positive trends over the 1973-2002 period are influenced by a sequence of notably dry years at the start of the period and were not observed over a 40-year time-frame. There are some indications of a tendency towards decreasing low flows in some eastern catchments, but this is supported by few significant results. The results of this study provide a baseline against which to assess longer-term change from historical flow time series and to monitor future change in the benchmark network.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An assessment of trends in UK runoff and low flows using a network of undisturbed catchments

2006

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“…Regional streamflow trend analyses will provide useful information for both policy makers and practitioners to undertake effective water resources planning and management at a regional scale. The studies addressing this topic include Lettenmaier et al (1994), Douglas et al (2000), Zhang et al (2001), Burn and Hag Elnur (2001), and others.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional streamflow trend detection with consideration of both temporal and spatial correlation

Yue

Wang

2002

Intl Journal of Climatology

166

124

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It is known that serial correlation within time series at sites and cross-correlation among sites in a specific region will influence the ability of statistical tests to assess the field significance of trends over the region. However, serial and/or cross-correlation has been ignored in field trend-analyses. This study attempts to develop a methodology that takes into account both serial and cross-correlation in the assessment of the field significance of trends. The regional average Mann-Kendall (RAMK) statistic is used to represent the regional properties of trends at a regional scale. The null distribution of the RAMK statistic is derived on the basis that the joint probability distribution of m independent normal variables is also normally distributed. The variance of the RAMK statistic is then modified by serial and cross-correlation. The applicability of the method was demonstrated by applying it to assess the field significance of trends in annual mean, annual maximum, and annual minimum daily streamflow from 1967 to 1996 in ten major homogeneous climate regions of Canada. The results indicate that the method developed provides more accurate assessment of the field significance of trends than that without consideration of serial and cross-correlation.At the significance level of 0.10, annual mean daily flow increased significantly in the region of Yukon and northern BC mountains whereas it decreased significantly in the Pacific and the Prairie regions. Annual maximum daily flow decreased significantly across southern Canada, except in the Pacific region. Annual minimum daily flow decreased significantly in the Pacific region and in southeastern Canada, with the exception of the region of Great Lakes and St Lawrence river basin, whereas it increased significantly in the region of Yukon and northern BC mountains.

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“…Lins and Slack (1999) applied the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test to study temporal trends of streamflow at 395 gauging stations across the USA and suggested that streamflow increased in most regions, except for the northwest and the southeast Pacific. Zhang et al (2001) pointed out that streamflow decreased significantly in most months, especially in August and September from 1947-1996 in southern Canada. Xu et al (2010) analyzed the trends of major hydroclimatic variables from in the Tarim River Basin of China and concluded that the impacts of increasing air temperature on streamflow showed different characteristics, depending on location and seasons.…”

Section: S L Sun Et Al: Past and Future Changes Of Streamflow In Pmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In addition, climate change may even be speeded up in the future, consequently leading to an increase in probabilities of floods and droughts. Therefore, changes in water resources and the underlying driving forces due to climate changes have become research focuses (Andréasson et al, 2004;Christensen and Lettenmaier, 2007;Frederick and Major, 1997;Gül et al, 2010;Lins and Slack, 1999;Liu and Cui, 2009;Null et al, 2010;Piao et al, 2007;Thodsen, 2007;Vörösmarty et al, 2000;Xu et al, 2010;Zhang et al, 2001). Andréasson et al (2004) discussed the impacts of climate change on streamflow under three anthropogenic CO 2 emission scenarios with a hydrology model (HBV) and concluded that the influences of climate change based on hydrology cycle varied geographically.…”

Section: S L Sun Et Al: Past and Future Changes Of Streamflow In Pmentioning

confidence: 99%

Past and future changes of streamflow in Poyang Lake Basin, Southeastern China

Sun

Chen

et al. 2012

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract.To understand the causes of the past water cycle variations and the influence of climate variability on the streamflow, lake storage, and flood potential, we analyze the changes in streamflow and the underlying drivers in four typical watersheds (Gaosha, Meigang, Saitang, and Xiashan) within the Poyang Lake Basin, based on the meteorological observations at 79 weather stations, and datasets of streamflow and river level at four hydrological stations for the period of 1961-2000. The contribution of different climate factors to the change in streamflow in each watershed is estimated quantitatively using the water balance equations. Results show that in each watershed, the annual streamflow exhibits an increasing trend from 1961-2000. The increases in streamflow by 4.80 m 3 s −1 yr −1 and 1.29 m 3 s −1 yr −1 at Meigang and Gaosha, respectively, are statistically significant at the 5 % level. The increase in precipitation is the biggest contributor to the streamflow increment in Meigang (3.79 m 3 s −1 yr −1 ), Gaosha (1.12 m 3 s −1 yr −1 ), and Xiashan (1.34 m 3 s −1 yr −1 ), while the decrease in evapotranspiration is the major factor controlling the streamflow increment in Saitang (0.19 m 3 s −1 yr −1 ). In addition, radiation and wind contribute more than actual vapor pressure and mean temperature to the changes in evapotranspiration and streamflow for the four watersheds.For revealing the possible change of streamflow due to the future climate change, we also investigate the projected precipitation and evapotranspiration from of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) under three greenhouse gases emission scenarios (SRESA1B, SRESA2 and SRESB1) for the period of 2061-2100. When the future changes in the soil water storage changes are assumed ignorable, the streamflow shows an uptrend with the projected increases in both precipitation and evapotranspiration (except for the SRESB1 scenario in Xiashan watershed) relative to the observed mean during 1961-2000. Furthermore, the largest increase in the streamflow is found at Meigang (+4.31 %) and Xiashan (+3.84 %) under the SRESA1B scenario, while the increases will occur at Saitang (+6.87 %) and Gaosha (+5.15 %) under the SRESB1 scenario.

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Trends in Canadian streamflow

Cited by 647 publications

References 21 publications

An assessment of trends in UK runoff and low flows using a network of undisturbed catchments

An assessment of trends in UK runoff and low flows using a network of undisturbed catchments

Regional streamflow trend detection with consideration of both temporal and spatial correlation

Past and future changes of streamflow in Poyang Lake Basin, Southeastern China

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