Trends and Cycles in the Net Barter Terms of Trade: A New Approach

Cuddington, John T.; Urzúa, Carlos M.

doi:10.2307/2234034

Cited by 154 publications

(103 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…Past studies that have analyzed trends assumed that the underlying data series is trend-stationary. While Sapsford (1985), Grilli and Yang (1988), Helg (1991), and Ardeni and Wright (1992) among others have advocated for commodity prices to follow a trend stationary model, Cuddington and Urzua (1989), Cuddington (1992), Bleaney and Greenaway (1993), and Newbold et al (2005) recognized that commodity prices may be difference-stationary. The evidence on the trend function has been mixed.…”

Section: Theoretical Background and Previous Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Underlying Trends and International Price Transmission of Agricultural Commodities

Ghoshray

2011

SSRN Journal

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Atanu Ghoshray is a Lecturer in Economics at the University of Bath. The author thanks M.S. Gochoco-Bautista, S. Jha, and E. San Andres for insightful comments on an earlier version of the draft, and P. Quising for providing the data. This paper represents the views of the author, who accepts responsibility for any errors in the paper. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the Asian Development Bank. Terms of use: Documents in Asian DevelopmentThe ADB Economics Working Paper Series is a forum for stimulating discussion and eliciting feedback on ongoing and recently completed research and policy studies undertaken by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) staff, consultants, or resource persons. The series deals with key economic and development problems, particularly those facing the Asia and Pacific region; as well as conceptual, analytical, or methodological issues relating to project/program economic analysis, and statistical data and measurement. The series aims to enhance the knowledge on Asia's development and policy challenges; strengthen analytical rigor and quality of ADB's country partnership strategies, and its subregional and country operations; and improve the quality and availability of statistical data and development indicators for monitoring development effectiveness.

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Section: Theoretical Background and Previous Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Underlying Trends and International Price Transmission of Agricultural Commodities

Ghoshray

2011

SSRN Journal

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“…Good examples of the former approach include Maxwell (1999); Heap (2005) and (2007); Radetzki (2006);and Tilton (2006). Examples of times series econometrics approaches include Cuddington and Urzu´a (1989); Deaton and Miller (1995); Cashin and McDermott (2002) ;Cuddington, Ludema, and Jayasuriya (2007); and Gilbert (2007). A number of authors have analyzed the movement of metal prices over the business cycle as well as co-movements among commodity prices (see Labys, Achouch, and Terraza, 1999;McDermott, Cashin, and Scott, 1999;and Pindyck and Rotemberg, 1990).…”

Section: Motivation and Backgroundmentioning

confidence: 99%

Super Cycles in Real Metals Prices?

Cuddington¹,

Jerrett²

2008

IMF Staff Pap

151

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“…Commodity policy research has been characterized by less than perfect agreement over the long run trend of prices, as well as over its volatility over time. The detection of a downward trend in prices has been hotly disputed, primarily due to weaknesses in the statistical tests for trend (Grilli and Yang 1988, Cuddington and Urzua 1989, Powell 1991, Gilbert 2003, Leon and Soto 1997, Cashin and McDermott 2001, Cashin, et al 2003. Similarly, while the detection of commodity price volatility in the literature is not controversial, debate does exist over whether that volatility has been increasing over time or not, as well as its underlying causes (see, for example, Cashin, et al 2001;Varangis, et al 2003c, Gilbert 2003Hazell, Jaramillo, and Williamson 1990;Scandizzo and Diakosawas 1987).…”

Section: Agricultural Commodities In Crisismentioning

confidence: 99%

Fairtrade And Market Failures In Agricultural Commodity Markets

Ronchi¹

2006

Policy Research Working Papers

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This paper concerns an NGO intervention in agricultural commodity markets known as "Fairtrade". Fairtrade pays producers a minimum unit price and provides capacity building support to member cooperative organizations. Fairtrade's organizational capacity support targets those factors believed to reduce the commodity producer's share of returns. Specifically, Fairtrade justifies its intervention in markets like coffee by claiming that market power and a lack of capacity in producer organizations 'marks down' the prices producers receive. As the market share of Fairtrade coffee grows in importance, its intervention in commodity markets is of increasing interest. Using an original data set collected from fieldwork in Costa Rica, this paper assesses the role of Fairtrade in overcoming the market factors it claims limits producer returns. Features of the Costa Rican input market for coffee permit a generalization of the results. The empirical results find that market power is a limiting factor in the Costa Rican market and that Fairtrade does improve the efficiency of cooperatives, thereby increasing the returns to producers. These results do not depend on the minimum price policy of Fairtrade and therefore can inform on its organizational support activities. Finally, the results also suggest that producers selling to vertically integrated, multinational coffee mills face lower producer price 'mark-downs' compared with domestically owned non-cooperative mills. This result contradicts the popular view that the increasing concentration of vertically integrated multinational firms accounts for a decline in producers' share of coffee returns.

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Trends and Cycles in the Net Barter Terms of Trade: A New Approach

Cited by 154 publications

References 17 publications

Underlying Trends and International Price Transmission of Agricultural Commodities

Underlying Trends and International Price Transmission of Agricultural Commodities

Super Cycles in Real Metals Prices?

Fairtrade And Market Failures In Agricultural Commodity Markets

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