Transport mode use during the COVID-19 lockdown period in Germany: The car became more important, public transport lost ground

Travel Demand Prediction during COVID-19 Pandemic: Educational and Working Trips at the University of Padova

“…Many authors reported significant changes in users' travel habits worldwide [7,8,21,22], with variations in the frequency of trips, travel purposes and modal split [12], which may have varied in accordance with country-specific factors [23,24] and socio-economic characteristics of citizens [25]. As regards European nations, comparing trip statistics before and after the pandemic: in Germany, about 60% of persons changed transport mode [14], in particular, the number of people performing monomodal trips rose from 68% to 83% [26]; in Greece, the average number of daily trips decreased by 50% [12]; in the Netherlands, about 80% of people reduced their out-of-home activities and the number of trips decreased by 55% compared to 2019 [9]; in Poland, 50% of people reduced their travel time by more than two thirds [20]; commuting trips dropped by 80% in Spain [13]; in Italy, the number of people reporting no daily trips increased by 27% [24] and the number of internal trips decreased by 50% [27,28], while commuting trips were reduced by 69% [8]; even in Sweden, where restrictions were voluntary, 86% of the population changed their commuting trips with 66% of people who commuted for 5 days a week prior to the pandemic deciding not to travel [29]. In particular, public transport, despite its fundamental role in everyday mobility needs, was the most affected travel mode [8,30] since it was often perceived as a high-risk environment for contagion [31].…”

“…In particular, public transport, despite its fundamental role in everyday mobility needs, was the most affected travel mode [8,30] since it was often perceived as a high-risk environment for contagion [31]. In many countries, a shift from public transport to car and active modes was reported [7]; comparing the pre-COVID-19 period with the pandemic period, in Germany, the number of young adults using public transport dropped from 47% to 19% [26]; in Norway, the number of people stating to never use buses increased by 19% [24]; in Sweden, the modal share of public transport for commuting trips was reduced from 45% to 10% [8]. In Italy, the High Institute for Transport Education and Research (ISFORT) estimated that [28], in 2019, 25% of trips were performed by active modes, 63% by private motorized means and 12% by public transport means; whereas, during the lockdown, the corresponding values became 35%, 61% and 4%, respectively; lastly, after the relaxation of restrictions, 31% of trips by active modes, 61% by private motorized means and 8% on public transport modes were reported.…”

“…Nevertheless, besides the analysis about past changes due to the COVID-19 outbreak, the prediction of future travel habits in "new normal" conditions, when strict measures are relaxed and citizens can decide whether to perform a trip or not and are having to live with the virus [13,23], is fundamental for future transport system planning and policymaking [4,9]. Indeed, many variations in the travel behaviour of users are likely to be maintained in the future [4,14,26,47], thus defining a significantly different travel demand with respect to the pre-pandemic period [12,19,30]. Following this perspective, travel demand prediction is important, since, as previously described, a new greener mobility can effectively foster the sustainable development of cities [37].…”

Predicting the effects of COVID-19 related interventions in urban settings by combining activity-based modelling, agent-based simulation, and mobile phone data

“…Eisenmann et al [32] use a representative travel survey in Germany to find out whether the pandemic has influenced transport mode choice. Their results show that use of individual modes like car have increased during the lockdown in April whereas the use of public transport has declined.…”

Making the COVID-19 crisis a real opportunity for environmental sustainability

“…A ten-country survey by Barbieri et al ( 2021 ) found that, while mobility was reduced across all transport modes, the decline was most pronounced for public transport and least pronounced for cars. Similarly, several other studies show that the share of car usage in the modal split has increased in several countries (Bucsky 2020 ; Eisenmann et al 2021 ; Molloy et al 2021 ; Przybylowski et al 2021 ).…”