Transmission risk of infectious droplets in physical spreading process at different times: A review

Abstract

Droplets provide a well-known transmission media in the COVID-19 epidemic, and the particle size is closely related to the classification of the transmission route. However, the term “aerosol” covers most particle sizes of suspended particulates because of information asymmetry in different disciplines, which may lead to misunderstandings in the selection of epidemic prevention and control strategies for the public. In this review, the time when these droplets are exhaled by a patient was taken as the initial time. Then, all available viral loads and numerical distribution of the exhaled droplets was analyzed, and the evaporation model of droplets in the air was combined with the deposition model of droplet nuclei in the respiratory tract. Lastly, the perspective that physical spread affects the transmission risk of different size droplets at different times was summarized for the first time. The results showed that although the distribution of exhaled droplets was dominated by small droplets, droplet volume was proportional to the third power of particle diameter, meaning that the viral load of a 100 μm droplet was approximately 10 6 times that of a 1 μm droplet at the initial time. Furthermore, the exhaled droplets are affected by heat and mass transfer of evaporation, water fraction, salt concentration, and acid-base balance (the water fraction > 98%), which lead them to change rapidly, and the viral survival condition also deteriorates dramatically. The time required for the initial diameter (d o ) of a droplet to shrink to the equilibrium diameter (d e , about 30% of d o ) is approximately proportional to the second power of the particle diameter, taking only a few milliseconds for a 1 μm droplet but hundreds of milliseconds for a 10 μm droplet; in other words, the viruses carried by the large droplets can be preserved as much as possible. Finally, the infectious droplet nuclei maybe inhaled by the susceptible population through different and random contact routes, and the droplet nuclei with larger d e decompose more easily into tiny particles on account of the accelerated collision in a complex airway, which can be deposited in the higher risk alveolar region. During disease transmission, the infectious droplet particle size varies widely, and the transmission risk varies significantly at different time nodes; therefore, the fuzzy term “aerosol” is not conducive to analyzing disease exposure risk. Recommendations for epidemic prevention and control strategies are: 1) Large droplets are the main conflict in disease transmission; thus, even if they are blocked by a homemade mask initially, it significantly contains the epidemic. 2) The early phase of contact, such as close-contact and short-range transmission, has the highest infection risk; therefore, social distancing can effectively keep the susceptible population from inhaling active viruses. 3) The risk of the fomite route depends on ...

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