Transition pathways to fully automated driving and its implications for the sociotechnical system of automobility

Abstract

The advent of fully automated road vehicles is a topic currently getting attention in the field of transport as well as futures research: the technology is assumed to radically change the way we move in the future as well as to expand and differentiate existing mobility concepts. Still, the implications of automated driving are first and foremost discussed from a technological point of view and uncertainty about how this transition might take place remains. The embedding in the system of automobility respectively the transport system as a whole, currently lacks analytical as well as empirical examination. In our paper, we will discuss the topic in relation to three possible sociotechnical transition scenarios: (1) evolution, (2) revolution and (3) transformation. We will extrapolate different scenarios of automated driving based on current technical, economic, infrastructural, spatial, and transport developments and discuss its consequences for the transport system and mobility concepts.

Autonomous driving, the built environment and policy implications

“…In line with previous studies that emphasized the need to specify and differentiate autonomous driving in relation to different development paths (see Fraedrich et al, 2015;Heinrichs, 2016;Wachenfeld et al, 2016), four different uses cases of autonomous driving 1 Though there has been an ongoing discussion for decades whether the often differing methodological, epistemological/theoretical paradigms of quantitative and qualitative approaches actually allow it to combine them (see Tashakkori and Teddlie, 2003) we decided to use a rather pragmatic but nevertheless also very common approach (see Johnson and Omwuegbuzie, 2004). 2 As this is the entire population of transport city planning authorities dedicated to automatization in Germany, the responses are not treated as a sample but as a census of a small population.…”

“…While this does not mean that uncertainty about the future would be dissolved for good, such a proactive approach could be the basis to "develop business models and policy paths that are flexible and resilient" to uncertainties (Lyons, 2016). With respect to autonomous driving and its relation to the built environment, dealing with this uncertainty first of all requires a common and transparent understanding about plausible use cases and scenarios (including their development pathways) of the technology and its implications (Heinrichs, 2016;Fraedrich et al, 2015). The specific effects on the built environment and -what might be of even greater importance in this regard -how this could inform and support urban policy interventions and planning have not been sufficiently explored so far.…”

“…However, the four use cases are not mutually exclusive in two ways: first, they could as well evolve parallel to each other and therefore be complementary rather than competitive (seeFraedrich et al 2015). Second, they only present a small selection of possible scenarios of autonomous driving -there are in fact many more that are conceivable, but the ones that were chosen for this study should present likely developments of AV in the city by having been widely discussed in the current literature on autonomous driving at the same time.…”

Understanding smart mobility experiments in the Dutch automobility system: Who is involved and what do they promise?

“…Some scholars have focused on the possibility for smart mobility to trigger larger changes in automobility by analyzing future scenarios (Epprecht et al, 2014;Fraedrich, Beiker, & Lenz, 2015). They have nevertheless not considered the specific role of experimentation in achieving such changes.…”

Shifts, turning points and inertia exploring long-term industry trends in European transport

“…The relation between the Boldâ utomobile socio-technical system and the Bnew^autono-mous motor vehicles is, for instance, addressed, among other topics, by the articles written by Thomopoulos and Givoni for this topical collection, who stress the persistency of the transport culture. In addition, Fraedrich, Beiker and Lenz [12] in their contribution urge us to take care of the social acceptance of new culture as a fundamental step for innovation.…”