Transient response of severe thunderstorm forcing to elevated greenhouse gas concentrations

Trapp, Robert J.; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Gluhovsky, Alexander

doi:10.1029/2008gl036203

Cited by 128 publications

(135 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…Most climate change studies have focused on trends in environments favorable to severe thunderstorms, generally finding upward trends over the U.S. [Trapp et al, 2009;Diffenbaugh et al, 2013]. Sander et al [2013] did find an increase in the variance of both large loss events and environments favorable to severe thunderstorms between the periods 1970-1989 and 1990-2009, with convective available potential energy playing an important role.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changing volatility of U.S. annual tornado reports

Tippett

2014

Geophysical Research Letters

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United States (U.S.) tornado activity results in substantial loss of life and property damage each year. A simple measure of the U.S. tornado climatology is the average number of tornadoes per year. However, even this statistic is elusive because of nonstationary behavior due in large part to changes in reporting practices. Differencing of the annual report data results in a quantity without mean trends and whose standard deviation we denote as volatility, since it is an indication of the likely year-to-year variation in the number of tornadoes reported. While volatility changes detected prior to 2000 can be associated with known reporting practice changes, an increase in volatility in the 2000s across intensity levels cannot. A volatility increase is also seen in a tornado environment index which measures the favorability of atmospheric conditions to tornado activity, providing evidence that the recent increase in tornado report volatility is related to the physical environment.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changing volatility of U.S. annual tornado reports

Tippett

2014

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…flash floods, hail storms, tempest storms, tornados, and lightning, deserve closer attention since these are likely to be particularly affected by future global warming (Trapp et al 2007(Trapp et al , 2009Botzen et al 2009) and there is some evidence that past climatic changes already affected severe thunderstorm activity in some regions (Dessens 1995;Kunz et al 2009). Figure 7a shows that there is no significant trend in global insured losses for these peril types.…”

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confidence: 99%

A trend analysis of normalized insured damage from natural disasters

2011

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“…Injection of additional monoterpenes into the surface layer of the free troposphere as a result of storms may help explain enhanced levels of secondary organic aerosol observed in other studies (Heald et al, 2005). This aspect is particularly important as the frequency and intensity of severe thunderstorms is predicted to increase over time in response to climate change, with an additional two strong event days per year by the end of the century (Trapp et al, 2007(Trapp et al, , 2009.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 96%

Changes in monoterpene mixing ratios during summer storms in rural New Hampshire (USA)

et al. 2011

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Abstract.Monoterpenes are an important class of biogenic hydrocarbons that influence ambient air quality and are a principle source of secondary organic aerosol (SOA). Emitted from vegetation, monoterpenes are a product of photosynthesis and act as a response to a variety of environmental factors. Most parameterizations of monoterpene emissions are based on clear weather models that do not take into account episodic conditions that can drastically change production and release rates into the atmosphere. Here, the monoterpene dataset from the rural Thompson Farm measurement site in Durham, New Hampshire is examined in the context of a set of known severe storm events. While some storm systems had a negligible influence on ambient monoterpene mixing ratios, the average storm event increased mixing ratios by 0.59 ± 0.21 ppbv, a factor of 93 % above pre-storm levels. In some events, mixing ratios reached the 10's of ppbv range and persisted overnight. These mixing ratios correspond to increases in the monoterpene emission rate, ranging from 120 to 1240 g km −2 h −1 compared to an estimated clear weather rate of 116 to 193 g km −2 h −1 . Considering the regularity of storm events over most forested areas, this could be an important factor to consider when modeling global monoterpene emissions and their resulting influence on the formation of organic aerosols.

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Transient response of severe thunderstorm forcing to elevated greenhouse gas concentrations

Cited by 128 publications

References 29 publications

Changing volatility of U.S. annual tornado reports

Changing volatility of U.S. annual tornado reports

A trend analysis of normalized insured damage from natural disasters

Changes in monoterpene mixing ratios during summer storms in rural New Hampshire (USA)

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