Towards an Agent-based Simulation of Building Stock Development for the City of Hamburg

Abstract

Abstract-In the context of European climate goals municipalities have an increasing interest in an accurate estimation of current and future energy demand in buildings, as the domestic energy consumption is one of the major adjusting screws for the reduction of electrical and thermal energy consumption, whereas the demand for space heating has the highest impact. As part of the ongoing GEWISS project it is planned to create a geographical information system (GIS) to visualize domestic and industrial heat consumption in the city of Hamburg (Germany) to support political decision making by linking the development of urban areas and the district heating grid. Additionally, it is planned to provide simulation capabilities to offer planning assistance for future development. This paper will present the underlying agent-based simulation system that is used to simulate the development of the building stock. Thereby, the simulation approach and first results regarding the development of the renovation state of the building stock based on a study about the renovation behavior of different types of home-owners of detached and terraced houses will be presented.

Agent-Based Modelling of Urban District Energy System Decarbonisation – A Systematic Literature Review

“…user learning (i.e. energy saving) after authoritative smart meter adoption [68], building 55 renovation behaviour [69], weatherisation (i.e. making apartments weather-proof) [70],…”

Proposing Multiple-Criteria Ranking to Simulate Building Renovation in Cities

“…The GEWISS simulation team followed the rapid prototyping methodology and started with mock-ups based on multi-agent simulation tools [2]. The current approach is to rank all buildings in the data model and stochastically renovate ranked buildings in order according to a global renovation rate, for every year of the simulation run.…”

“…Renovation of building stock to national standards such as the German energy saving ordinance (EnEV 2014) is critical to reducing Germany's carbon footprint and energy usage. The GEWISS 1 (Geographical Heat Information and Simulation System, 2014 -2019) project aims to analyse and visualise heating demand and CO2 emissions based on the existing building stock of cities and to construct an expert tool that would help decision makers to simulate different scenarios and find the ones that would have the maximum cost effectiveness in reducing emissions and heating demand [2]. As can be seen from its contribution to the Hamburg Wärmekataster 2 , the GEWISS project approaches the problem in a spatial context, effectively making it a GIS tool with additional simulation support.…”

Proposing Multiple-Criteria Ranking to Simulate Building Renovation in Cities

“…Renovation of building stock to national standards such as the German energy saving ordinance (EnEV 2014) is critical to reducing Germany's carbon footprint and energy usage. The GEWISS (Geographical Heat Information and Simulation System, 2014-2019, (http://gewiss.haw-hamburg.de/)) project aims to analyse and visualise heating demand and CO2 emissions based on the existing building stock of cities and to construct an expert tool that would help decision makers to simulate different scenarios and find the ones that would have the maximum cost effectiveness in reducing emissions and heating demand [2].…”

“…The GEWISS simulation team followed the rapid prototyping methodology and started with mock-ups based on multi-agent simulation tools [2]. The current approach is to rank all buildings in the data model and stochastically renovate ranked buildings in order according to a global renovation rate, for every year of the • Building type factor, maps the impact factor for different building types (IWU for residential and an Ecofys typology for non-residential buildings (Ecofys.com is GEWISS project partner)) for each year of the simulation.…”