Towards Adaptation of Water Resource Systems to Climatic and Socio-Economic Change

Abstract

Climate change is viewed as the major threat to the security of water supplies in most parts of the world in the coming decades, and the water resources literature continues to be dominated by impact and risk assessments based on the latest climate projections from General Circulation Models (GCMs). However, the evidence for anthropogenic changes in precipitation and streamflow records continues to be elusive which, together with the known high uncertainty in GCM ensemble projections, has led to the development of risk assessment methods which are not driven exclusively by GCMs. It is argued that a baseline risk assessment should retain the assumption of climatic stationarity, and be based on the modelling of observed interannual variability as a dominant process in determining water resource system reliability, augmented where justifiable by reliable information from GCMs. However, irrespective of what the climate does in the future, globalization and socio-economic changes are the major drivers for increases in water demand and threats to water security, as exemplified by the burgeoning economies of the BRIC and MINT countries, and the large population increases and economic growth seen in many developing countries. It is suggested that more attention needs to be paid to adaptation to socio-economic change which is arguably more predictable than climatic change, based on what is already known about population and economic growth, lifestyle changes and human choices. More focus is needed on economic analyses that can inform the major investments in water use efficiency measures which can deliver the water savings needed to avert widespread water scarcity. The effectiveness of water use efficiency measures is largely determined by (a) the potential of modern information technology to achieve more efficient water resources management and water use and (b) human responses and choices in the uptake of measures. To assess the potential efficiency gains, it is argued that water resource systems modelling needs to evolve to incorporate the human dimension more explicitly, through Coupled Human and Natural Systems (CHANS) modelling. A CHANS modelling framework is outlined which incorporates agent-based Water Resour Manage

Drought Stress Impacts on Plants and Different Approaches to Alleviate Its Adverse Effects

“…As a result, some consider drought as the main environmental stress for different plants, particularly in drought prone areas [ 3 , 4 ], the single most critical threat to world food security in the future and the catalyst of important famines in the past [ 5 ]. The effects of drought in agriculture are aggravated due to the depletion of water resources and the increased food demand from an alarming world population growth [ 6 ]. The unpredictable nature of the drought is dependent upon various factors such as uneven and undependable distribution of rainfall, evapotranspiration, and water holding capacity around the rhizosphere [ 7 , 8 ].…”

Satellite Remote Sensing for Water Resources Management: Potential for Supporting Sustainable Development in Data‐Poor Regions

“…Precipitation is expected to come in fewer but more intense storms and has the potential to increase flood risk (Hirabayashi et al, ). On the demand side, population increase, rapid urbanization, and increased demands from agriculture and energy production are expected to lead to challenges for water quality and allocation of resources (O'Connell, ) that may outweigh the uncertain impacts of climate change.…”

Assessing Surface Water Quality in the Serbian Part of the Tisa River Basin

“…The Begej River originates from the Old Begej and the Begej Canal, both flowing from Romania to Serbia. The average amount of water brought by the Tisa into the Danube is 25.4 billion m 3 •year −1 [32].…”