Toward a Better Understanding of Wildfire Behavior in the Wildland‐Urban Interface: A Case Study of the 2021 Marshall Fire

Juliano, Timothy W.; Lareau, Neil P.; Frediani, M. E.; Shamsaei, Kasra; Eghdami, Masih; Kosiba, Karen; Wurman, Joshua; DeCastro, Amy; Kosović, Branko; Ebrahimian, Hamed

doi:10.1029/2022gl101557

Cited by 9 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 69 publications

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“…Similar processes appear to have been at play during the Marshall fire, wherein the location of the hydraulic jump may have impacted the fire spread characteristics (Juliano et al, 2023). Another similarity with the Marshall fire is the close proximity of the ignition to the town, leaving little warning time before the fire spread into the community, which contrasts with other cases where the fire burns inside the wildland for an appreciable time before reaching a WUI area (e.g., Tubbs and Camp Fires in California).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 90%

“…WRF and SWUIFT are, respectively, well-validated models for simulating downslope windstorm-driven fires and WUI fire spread. The models' capabilities have been recently demonstrated simulating the Marshall Fire (Juliano et al, 2023), the Tubbs Fire (Masoudvaziri et al, 2023), and the Camp Fire (Shamsaei et al, 2023;Szasdi-Bardales et al, 2023), to name a few. The fire spread simulation does not consider the effects of structure hardening and suppression.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Brief communication: The Lahaina Fire disaster: How models can be used to understand and predict wildfires

Juliano,

Szasdi-Bardales,

Lareau

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Abstract. Following the destructive Lahaina Fire in Hawaii, our team has modeled the wind and fire spread processes to understand the drivers of this devastating event. The results are in good agreement with observations recorded during the event. Extreme winds with high variability, a fire ignition close to the community, and construction characteristics led to continued fire spread in multiple directions. Our results suggest that available modeling capabilities can provide vital information to guide decision-making and emergency response management during wildfire events.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 90%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Brief communication: The Lahaina Fire disaster: How models can be used to understand and predict wildfires

Juliano,

Szasdi-Bardales,

Lareau

et al. 2023

Preprint

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“…Mountain waves, topographic channeling of airflow, lee slope jets and hydraulic jumps also create conditions favorable for extreme wind driven bushfire behavior by increasing surface wind speeds. These conditions have not previously been documented in SEQ but are well known to increase the speed of bushfire spread, the risk of ember attack and spotting elsewhere (Abatzoglou et al, 2023;Juliano et al, 2023;Mass and Ovens, 2019).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 96%

Subtropical Foehn Winds, Southeast Queensland, Australia

Wiesner,

McGowan,

Sturman

et al. 2024

JGR Atmospheres

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Foehn winds have been a focus of research in mid‐latitude mountainous regions for more than 150 years, where their onset is typically associated with warm, dry, and gusty winds. This research has now extended into high latitude regions, yet research of foehn winds in subtropical and tropical regions remains scarce. Here we present results from the first investigation of foehn winds in the subtropics of Southeast Queensland (SEQ), Australia. Analysis of meteorological records found that foehn winds occur throughout the year with peak frequency and duration in late winter (August) associated with the passage of shortwave troughs over southern Australia. Modeling of wind fields and atmospheric boundary layer conditions for three case studies was conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Results showed foehn events in SEQ can be associated with mountain waves and hydraulic jump features in the lee of topographic barriers. Over lee slopes, acceleration of wind speeds and topographic channeling of foehn winds was found to occur, along with substantial increases in air temperature, and decreases in relative humidity. Warming of the foehn airstream is believed to occur primarily through isentropic drawdown with a likely contribution from surface sensible heat flux. Recommendations for future research are made in light of the importance of foehn winds to wildfire management and mitigation in SEQ.

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“…Its flexibility in configuration allows researchers to tailor the model to specific scenarios, incorporating various physical parameterizations. Noteworthy is its integration with fire spread models, facilitating a comprehensive understanding of the interplay between atmospheric conditions and fire behavior, especially in the context of wildlandurban interface (WUI) fires (Kumar, 2022;Kumar et al, 2022;Juliano et al, 2023). The WRF model stands out for its extensive validation and verification, a testament to its performance in atmospheric simulations, and its widespread adoption within the research community.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating the performance of WRF in simulating winds and surface meteorology during a Southern California wildfire event

Kumar,

Kosović,

Nayak

et al. 2024

Front. Earth Sci.

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The intensity and frequency of wildfires in California (CA) have increased in recent years, causing significant damage to human health and property. In October 2007, a number of small fire events, collectively referred to as the Witch Creek Fire or Witch Fire started in Southern CA and intensified under strong Santa Ana winds. As a test of current mesoscale modeling capabilities, we use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to simulate the 2007 wildfire event in terms of meteorological conditions. The main objectives of the present study are to investigate the impact of horizontal grid resolution and planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme on the model simulation of meteorological conditions associated with a Mega fire. We evaluate the predictive capability of the WRF model to simulate key meteorological and fire-weather forecast parameters such as wind, moisture, and temperature. Results of this study suggest that more accurate predictions of temperature and wind speed relevant for better prediction of wildfire spread can be achieved by downscaling regional numerical weather prediction products to 1 km resolution. Furthermore, accurate prediction of near-surface conditions depends on the choice of the planetary boundary layer parameterization. The MYNN parameterization yields more accurate prediction as compared to the YSU parameterization. WRF simulations at 1 km resolution result in better predictions of temperature and wind speed than relative humidity during the 2007 Witch Fire. In summary, the MYNN PBL parameterization scheme with finer grid resolution simulations improves the prediction of near-surface meteorological conditions during a wildfire event.

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Toward a Better Understanding of Wildfire Behavior in the Wildland‐Urban Interface: A Case Study of the 2021 Marshall Fire

Abstract: Wildfire activity in the United States (U.S.) and across the globe has increased markedly over the last several decades (e.g.,

Cited by 9 publications

References 69 publications

Brief communication: The Lahaina Fire disaster: How models can be used to understand and predict wildfires

Brief communication: The Lahaina Fire disaster: How models can be used to understand and predict wildfires

Subtropical Foehn Winds, Southeast Queensland, Australia

Evaluating the performance of WRF in simulating winds and surface meteorology during a Southern California wildfire event

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