Tourism Qualitative Forecasting Scenario Building Through the Delphi Technique

Abstract

Los análisis de futuros y los ejercicios de construcción de escenarios han recibido escasa atención de la literatura científica sobre la planificación y gestión de destinos turísticos. Este artículo enfatiza la importancia de una estrategia de previsión territorial y de la creación de escenarios en la planificación y gestión de destinos turísticos, demostrando cómo es metodológicamente posible combinar la técnica Delphi con un ejercicio de creación de escenarios. Los hallazgos sugieren que el conocimiento de las partes interesadas puede beneficiar la planificación y la gestión de los destinos turísticos. Futures analyses and scenario-building exercises have received scant attention from scientific literature on the planning and management of tourist destinations. This article emphasizes the importance of a territorial foresight strategy and scenario building in the planning and management of tourist destinations, demonstrating how it is methodologically possible to combine the Delphi technique with a scenario-building exercise. The findings suggest that the knowledge provided by stakeholders operating within the tourism system can benefit the planning and management of tourist destinations.

Meatless gastronomy: a threat or an opportunity for tourism development?

“…We refer to Delphi as “a technique that values the knowledge and opinion of a panel of experts, based on judgements and interpretations.” We adopted this definition from Moreira and Santos (2020, p. 426), who conclude that a combination of Delphi and Scenarios methods can be useful to explore the future and can support destination management.…”