Time series analysis of the impact of tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence among Australian adults, 2001–2011

Wakefield, Melanie; Coomber, Kerri; Durkin, Sarah; Scollo, Michelle; Bayly, Megan; Spittal, Matthew J; Simpson, Julie A; Hill, David

doi:10.2471/blt.13.118448

Cited by 59 publications

(58 citation statements)

References 32 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Finally, we did not include in our analysis exposure to tobacco control mass media campaigns funded by the Australian government, as we do not have access to information on the dates of introduction nor the population coverage. We note however that these were found to make a negligible contribution to the reduction of smoking prevalence compared to the contributions of comprehensive smoke-free policies and tax increase 19 .…”

Section: Study Design and Sampling Proceduresmentioning

confidence: 92%

“…17 Accordingly, this decline in prevalence observed over the past 15 years across OECD countries is the result of a "pre-existing" continuous and uniform trend. Two studies published in peer-reviewed journals 18,19 contradict this assumption and strongly suggest that the evolution of smoking prevalence over periods which largely overlap the period considered by Kaul and Wolf was associated with the introduction of tobacco control measures.…”

mentioning

confidence: 87%

“…The data were aggregated by month, with an average of 4,500 observations per month, to produce observed monthly prevalence estimates "as the average of 0-1 variable smoker in the RMSS data that indicates whether an individual in the sample smokes." 9 Roy Morgan Research's data are known for the consistency of their random sampling methods 18 and have been used in previous research to obtain reliable estimates of smoking prevalence in Australia 18,19 . However, as the data used by Kaul and Wolf are not publicly available, we reconstructed them from Figures 1 and 2 in their paper on adults 9 .…”

Section: Study Design and Sampling Proceduresmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To adjust for other tobacco control measures which may have confounded the estimated impact of plain packaging, we developed indicator variables for the introduction of comprehensive smoke-free policies, the introduction of graphic health warnings, and the large tax increase on tobacco products of April 2010. We did not include measures for which Wakefield and co-authors 18,19 found no significant effect on smoking prevalence, such as increased availability of smoking cessation medications, pointof-sale bans and partial smoking bans. Finally, we did not include in our analysis exposure to tobacco control mass media campaigns funded by the Australian government, as we do not have access to information on the dates of introduction nor the population coverage.…”

Section: Study Design and Sampling Proceduresmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Wakefield et al 18,19 treat smoke-free policies as a single intervention and build an indicator variable based on their level of implementation, attributing a score of 0 for no ban, 0.5 for partial bans and 1 for complete smoking bans. In their first paper, which looks at the period from June 1995 to December 2006, during which partial smoking bans were put in place, they observed "no effect of the implementation of smoke-free restaurant laws on smoking prevalence."…”

Section: Comprehensive Smoke-free Policiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 4 more Smart Citations

Refuting tobacco-industry funded research: empirical data shows decline in smoking prevalence following introduction of plain packaging in Australia

Diethelm¹,

Farley²

2015

Tob. Prev. Cessation

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

IntroductIon Legislation to introduce plain packaging of tobacco products, advocated as an important tobacco control policy in the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, has been vigorously attacked by the tobacco industry on the grounds that it results in no measurable impact on smoking rates. This claim is based on two industry-funded working papers that examined trends in smoking prevalence in Australia.objectIve To assess the effect of plain packaging on smoking prevalence in Australia, taking into account key tobacco control measures introduced over the period [2001][2002][2003][2004][2005][2006][2007][2008][2009][2010][2011][2012][2013], which could potentially act as confounders, with the aim of investigating the findings of the industry-funded papers. MethodsMonthly smoking prevalence and sample sizes from repeat cross-sectional surveys were reconstructed from the working paper by reverse engineering of the industry presented data and analysed as a time series using logistic regression. Indicator variables reflecting comprehensive smokefree policy, graphic health warnings, 25% taxation increase, and introduction of plain packaging were constructed from official information.results Smoking prevalence in Australia declined from 25% to 18% over the 13 year period examined -an overall 28% relative reduction or an average annual reduction of 2.8% (95% confidence interval 2.6% -2.9%). A significantly improved fit was obtained by the full model which included terms for tax increase (4.8%, 2.7% -6.8% reduction), comprehensive smoke-free policy (4.5%, 1.7% -7.2% reduction) and plain packaging (3.7%, 1.1% -6.2% reduction) in addition to an adjusted average annual reduction of 1.7% (1.3% -2.2%).conclusIons A significant decline in smoking prevalence in Australia followed the introduction of plain packaging, after adjusting for the impact of other tobacco control measures. This conclusion is in marked contrast to that of the industry-funded analysis. IntroductIonGuidelines on Article 13 of the WHO Framework-convention for Tobacco Control explain how Parties can fulfil their treaty obligations with respect to enacting and enforcing a comprehensive ban on tobacco advertising, promotion and sponsorship. Among the proposed measures, Parties are invited "to restrict or prohibit the use of logos, colours, brand images or promotional information on packaging other than brand names and product names displayed in a standard colour and font style."1 Australia was the first country to introduce this proposal by adopting the Tobacco Plain Packaging Act in November 2011 with progressive implementation between 1st October and 1st December 2012 2,3 . The objectives of the plain (or standardized) packaging measure are to: "(a) reduce the appeal of tobacco products to consumers; and (b) increase the effectiveness of health warnings on the retail packaging of tobacco products; and (c) reduce the ability of the retail packaging of tobacco products to mislead consumers about the harmful effects of smoking or using tobacco pro...

show abstract

Section: Study Design and Sampling Proceduresmentioning

confidence: 92%

mentioning

confidence: 87%