Three-stage Linear Model Simulation of Midui Glacier since Little Ice Age (LIA)

Abstract

Studying the past glacier fluctuations during the Little Ice Age (LIA) is crucial for interpretation of climate-induced glacier changes. Thickness, flux and length changes are particularly vital, as they are the sequential changes on the glacier with changes in mass balance. In the past, the studies regarding long-term glacier fluctuations were particularly based on moraine dating in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. However, arrays of glacier changes for each time step were not well understood. Based on the dominant role of warming temperature in glacier retreat, we hypothesized that during LIA, low temperature could have mediated the glacier fluctuation compared to precipitation. To test this hypothesis, we used three-stage linear model and simulated thickness, flux and length of the Midui glacier since 1385 CE. Our results showed that the glacier advanced during the LIA (1550-1780 CE) was controlled by temperature rather than precipitation. The simulated changes were more comparable with moraine records when both the climatic factors were considered as forcing. In the light of these findings, we concluded that the three-stage linear model was important tool to emulate the past climate driven glacier fluctuations in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. This study may help to advance our understanding of variation in glacier behavior under ongoing warming climate.