Thermal Response of Large Seasonally Ice‐Covered Lakes Over Tibetan Plateau to Climate Change

Abstract

In this study, a process‐based lake model is used to investigate the influence of climate change on the thermodynamics of 30 large lakes over Tibetan Plateau (TP). The lake model was driven by the atmospheric forcing derived from the bias‐corrected projections of three global climate models in the twenty‐first century under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The hindcasts during 2000–2014 can reasonably capture the seasonality and magnitude of satellite retrieved lake surface temperature (LST). Future projections during 2015–2100 suggest a widespread increased LST, declined ice cover, and prolonged stratification, with the severity of changes in line with the climate driver shifts under different SSPs. Under the scenario with the highest level of anthropogenic radiative forcing (SSP5‐8.5), the end‐of‐century (2086–2100) changes of LST, ice thickness, and stratification duration averaged across all studied lakes reach 4.90°C, −0.43 m, and 65.46 days, respectively. Note that the positive ice‐albedo feedback can cause excess lake warming by accelerating ice break‐up (30.07 days earlier) and stratification onset (46.83 days earlier). By the end of this century, more frequent, multi‐seasonal thermal extremes are anticipated to push nearly half of the studied lakes into a permanent heatwave state. Together with the remarkable LST increase and winter ice loss, the lakes will mix less frequently and may shift from a dimictic to warm monomict mixing regime. Hopefully, the irreversible thermal changes can be avoided if the anthropogenic radiative forcing is controlled within the envelope outlined by the stringent climate mitigation scenario SSP1‐2.6.