The 'virtual economy' of REDD+ projects: does private certification of REDD+ projects ensure their environmental integrity?

Seyller, C.; Desbureaux, Sébastien; Ongolo, Symphorien; Karsenty, Alain; Simonet, Guillaume; Faure, Jacques; Brimont, Laura

doi:10.1505/146554816818966273

Cited by 20 publications

(17 citation statements)

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“…Second, selecting what the reference scenario should be requires developing plausible and relatively detailed projections of future change -a process that is challenging enough in itself, but which is made more difficult by the high risk of being gamed given the stakes at play 4,25,26 . Third, the appropriate rate of change might vary considerably spatially, among different biota, and over time, so the challenge of ensuring the reference scenario remains plausible is ongoing.…”

Section: Reference Scenarios For Nnlmentioning

confidence: 99%

The many meanings of no net loss in environmental policy

Brownlie²,

et al. 2018

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Section: Reference Scenarios For Nnlmentioning

confidence: 99%

The many meanings of no net loss in environmental policy

Brownlie²,

et al. 2018

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“…This article aims at determining a transparent FREL adjusted to likely future developments and highlights significant uncertainties associated with this process. Adjustment of reference levels, such as other outcomes of international climate negotiations [109], are sometimes perceived as loopholes putting actual GHG reductions at risk [10]. In that sense, this article contributes to narrowing these loopholes by proposing a transparent approach to determining a FREL adjusted to future circumstances.…”

Section: Conclusion and Recommendationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The scenarios underlying the most contested reference levels proposed for HFLD countries or regions (see for instance [10,13]) follow an ad-hoc narrative, i.e., "what would happen if . .…”

Section: Policy Implicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The FRL/FREL will therefore have to take socioeconomic development into consideration, which influence the trajectories of future drivers of change and the effort to be compensated will have to be based on the effectiveness of national/international policies and measures to address these. However, the potential for inflation of the FRL/FREL and the subsequent creation of "hot air" when historical baselines are adjusted, have been the subject of much thinking about design principles [7][8][9] and criticism of applied methodologies [10][11][12][13]. How to define a benchmark for emissions remains an issue in the era of the Paris Agreement where many countries mention REDD+ in their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC's) [14] and state that GHG emissions from land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) are likely to increase in the future under the business-as-usual scenario [15,16].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Determining a Carbon Reference Level for a High-Forest-Low-Deforestation Country

Pirker

Mosnier

Nana³

et al. 2019

Forests

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Research Highlights: A transparent approach to developing a forest reference emissions level (FREL) adjusted to future local developments in Southern Cameroon is demonstrated. Background and Objectives: Countries with low historical deforestation can adjust their forest reference (emission) level (FREL/FRL) upwards for REDD+ to account for likely future developments. Many countries, however, find it difficult to establish a credible adjusted reference level. This article demonstrates the establishment of a FREL for southern Cameroon adjusted to societal megatrends of strong population—and economic growth combined with rapid urbanization. It demonstrates what can be done with available information and data, but most importantly outlines pathways to further improve the quality of future FREL/FRL’s in light of possibly accessing performance-based payments. Materials and Methods: The virtual FREL encompasses three main elements: Remotely sensed activity data; emission factors derived from the national forest inventory; and the adjustment of the reference level using a land use model of the agriculture sector. Sensitivity analysis is performed on all three elements using Monte Carlo methods. Results: Deforestation during the virtual reference period 2000–2015 is dominated by non-industrial agriculture (comprising both smallholders and local elites) and increases over time. The land use model projections are consistent with this trend, resulting in emissions that are on average 47% higher during the virtual performance period 2020–2030 than during the reference period 2000–2015. Monte Carlo analysis points to the adjustment term as the main driver of uncertainty in the FREL calculation. Conclusions: The available data is suitable for constructing a FREL for periodic reporting to the UNFCCC. Enhanced coherence of input data notably for activity data and adjustment is needed to apply for a performance-based payment scheme. Expanding the accounting framework to include forest degradation and forest gain are further priorities requiring future research.

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“…The issues of carbon leakage, additionality and permanence remain unsolved. Overall, the effectiveness of REDD+ is strongly questioned (Seyller et al, 2015 andSunderlin et al, 2015).…”

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confidence: 99%

Essays on marine resources conservation : macroeconomics and national accounting

Virto¹

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The 'virtual economy' of REDD+ projects: does private certification of REDD+ projects ensure their environmental integrity?

Cited by 20 publications

References 48 publications

The many meanings of no net loss in environmental policy

The many meanings of no net loss in environmental policy

Determining a Carbon Reference Level for a High-Forest-Low-Deforestation Country

Essays on marine resources conservation : macroeconomics and national accounting

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