The Twenty-First-Century Singularity in the Big History Perspective—A Re-analysis

Korotayev, Andrey

doi:10.1007/978-3-030-33730-8_2

Cited by 51 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 64 publications

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“…Special attention should be paid to the fact that the peak of the current Kondratieff wave was noticeably lower than the previous peak, whereas previously the peak of every next wave always turned out to be higher than the peak of the previous cycle (see, e.g., Korotayev and Tsirel 2010a, 2010cGrinin 2012a, 2012b;Grinin, Korotayev, and Tausch 2016). This serves as an additional confirmation of the fact that in the 1970s, most of the global macrotrends that had been observed during the preceding centuries and millennia were reversed (see, e.g., Korotayev and Bogevolnov 2010;Korotayev 2015a;Korotayev, Goldstone, and Zinkina 2015;Korotayev 2020). However, an appreciable part of the academic community continues to ignore this fact, maintaining faith in the continuous 'acceleration of the pace of historical development' and refusing to see that since the early 1970s the pace of historical development is no longer accelerating, but rather slowing down (cf.…”

Section: Kondratieff Waves In the Global Gdp Dynamicsmentioning

confidence: 53%

Which Countries Generate Kondratieff Waves in Global GDP Growth Rate Dynamics in the Contemporary World?

Korotayev¹,

Bilyuga²,

Шишкина³

2020

jogs

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It is shown that the Kondratieff wave dynamics in the growth rates of global GDP is generated now by the developing countries, while in the previous era the Kondratieff dynamics was generated primarily by the most economically developed countries of the First World. We re-visit the question of the presence of the Kondratieff waves in the world GDP dynamics. We find that, though in the post 1960 series they are quite visible at the global level, they are hardly visible in the GDP growth rates of the economically developed countries where the Kondratieff wave component (still detectable with special techniques) is almost entirely overwhelmed by the secular trend towards the decline of the GDP growth rates. After analyzing how much this trend is connected with the decline of the population growth rates and the decline of the share of investments in GDP, we move to the analysis of the Kondratieff waves in the GDP growth rates of the developing countries where they turn out to be much more pronounced and visible, which allows us to conclude that in the present the K-waves are generated by the Third World. We also show that in the developing countries a pronounced Kondratieff wave dynamics is accompanied by an overall upward trend (that stands in a sharp contrast with the pronounced downward trend observed in the developed economies). Finally, we analyze Kondratieff waves in the efficiency of investments as well as demographic characteristics of the developing countries, which allows us to forecast that the GDP growth rates in the developing countries are likely to also step on the downward secular trend starting with the sixth Kondratieff wave.

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Section: Kondratieff Waves In the Global Gdp Dynamicsmentioning

confidence: 53%

Which Countries Generate Kondratieff Waves in Global GDP Growth Rate Dynamics in the Contemporary World?

Korotayev¹,

Bilyuga²,

Шишкина³

2020

jogs

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“…Among those who see technology as a causal agent, some see it as an intrinsic property of all life, growing as if it were a living thing 43 . The so-called “singularity” is viewed as a point where technological advancement escapes human control 46 . To formalize the concept and make it predictive and numerical, we must define technology and attach it to something that we can measure.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Footprints to Singularity: A global population model explains late 20th century slow-down and predicts peak within ten years

Bystroff

2021

Preprint

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Projections of future global human population are traditionally made using birth/death trend extrapolations, but these methods ignore limits. Expressing humanity as a K-selected species whose numbers are limited by the global carrying capacity produces a different outlook. Population data for the second millennium up to the year 1970 was fit to a hyper-exponential growth equation, where the rate constant for growth itself grows exponentially due to growth of life-saving technology. The discrepancies between the projected growth and the actual population data since 1970 are accounted for by a decrease in the global carrying capacity due to ecosystem degradation. A system dynamics model that best fits recent population numbers suggests that the global biocapacity may already have been reduced to one-half of its historical value and global carrying capacity may be at its 1965 level and falling. Simulations suggest that population may soon peak or may have already peaked. Population projections depend strongly on the unknown fragility or robustness of the Earth's essential ecosystem services that affect agricultural production. Numbers for the 2020 global census were not available for this study.

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“…Moreover, two periods of relatively slow growth of the world urban population (including long phases when the urban population and the world urbanization level would hardly grow or could even considerably fall) can be noted: B1, from the mid-third millennium BCE to the late second millennium BCE; and B2, between the second and seventeenth centuries CE. Two other periods are essentially close to these epochs: Period B0, immediately preceding the mid-fourth millennium (when the world urban population did not grow simply because cities had not yet emerged and no cities existed on the Earth), and Period B3, which is expected to begin in the twenty-second century, when forecasts predict the world urban population will again stop growing in any significant way (since the World System urbanization is supposed to reach its saturation level with stabilization [or even some decline] of the world population) (see, e.g., Korotayev, Malkov, Khaltourina 2006a, 2006b, 2007Korotayev, Komarova, Khaltourina 2007;Korotayev 2008Korotayev , 2009Korotayev , 2012Korotayev , 2013Grinin 2006;Korotayev 2018Korotayev , 2020b.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…From the sixteenth to the first half of the twentieth century (especially the nineteenth -the first half of the twentieth century) the phase transition was connected with the transition to the industrial principle of production. The period from the end of the twentieth century and (presumably) the whole twenty-first century is connected with the transition to scientific and information / cybernetic principle of production (for more detail see Grinin 2006;Grinin L., Grinin, A., Korotayev 2017a, 2017b, 2020a, 2020b.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Here, we present the model founded on the ideas described above, as well as in Part 1 of the Supporting Online Materials, and on our earlier general models of development of the World System (Korotayev 2005(Korotayev , 2006c(Korotayev , 2006d(Korotayev , 2007a(Korotayev , 2008(Korotayev , 2009(Korotayev , 2012(Korotayev , 2013(Korotayev , 2018(Korotayev , 2020bKorotayev, Malkov, Khaltourina 2006a, 2007Korotayev, Malkov 2012Grinin 2006Grinin , 2007aGrinin , 2011) and some ideas of the theory of dynamics of collective solidarity (asabiyyah) 5 formulated by Peter Turchin (2003Turchin ( , 2005Turchin ( , 2007.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Mathematical Model of Interaction between Civilization Center and Tribal Periphery: A Description

Korotayev¹,

Гринин²,

Гринин³

2021

seh

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This article offers a mathematical model describing the influence of one of the major factors of the World System's macrodynamics throughout most of its history (since the 'urban revolution') -the interaction between civilizations and their tribal peripheries. The proposed mathematical model is intended to describe the possible influence of the interaction between the World System civilizational core and its tribal periphery on the formation of the specific curve of the world urbanization dynamics. It simulates completion of the phase transition, behavior of the system in the attraction basin and beginning of the phase transition to the attraction basin of the new attractor and is aimed at identifying the role of the factor of interaction between the civilizational core and barbarian periphery in the formation of attractor effect during the completion of phase transition, that is for clarification of the reasons why there was observed not only the slowdown of growth rates of the main indicators of the World System development after completion of phase transitions during its development, but also their falling with the subsequent temporary stabilization near some equilibrium level.

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The Twenty-First-Century Singularity in the Big History Perspective—A Re-analysis

Cited by 51 publications

References 64 publications

Which Countries Generate Kondratieff Waves in Global GDP Growth Rate Dynamics in the Contemporary World?

Which Countries Generate Kondratieff Waves in Global GDP Growth Rate Dynamics in the Contemporary World?

Footprints to Singularity: A global population model explains late 20th century slow-down and predicts peak within ten years

Mathematical Model of Interaction between Civilization Center and Tribal Periphery: A Description

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