The surge of great earthquakes from 2004 to 2014

Lay, Thorne

doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2014.10.047

Cited by 147 publications

(150 citation statements)

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“…In contrast, the 2014 Iquique earthquake spanned only about 20% of the northern Chile seismic gap, with most of the 1877 M ~ 8.8 earthquake rupture zone remaining unbroken (e.g., Hayes et al, 2014b;Meng et al, 2015a;Cesca et al, 2016). Earthquakes along northern Japan were common in the last century, mainly in the M 7-8 magnitude range, but the 2011 M w 9 Tohoku earthquake ruptured a region where the last giant event occurred in A.D. 869, along with multiple rupture zones of previous individual ruptures (e.g., Koper et al, 2011;Lay, 2015). The 2010 M w 8.8 Maule earthquake ruptured a seismic gap in a region that last ruptured in 1835 in an M ~8.5 earthquake (e.g., , but the main slip extended beyond that rupture, overlapping the rupture zone of a large event in 1928, but not the adjacent 1985 rupture zone.…”

Section: Spatial Variations Of Slipmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Point source time functions are routinely determined by the SCARDEC method (e.g., Vallée and Douet, 2016). Efforts are under way to synthesize the accumulated data sets (e.g., Kanamori, 2014;Lay, 2015;Ye et al, 2016bYe et al, , 2016cDenolle and Shearer, 2016;Meier et al, 2017;Melgar and Hayes, 2017;Hayes, 2017), and we will not attempt to summarize the multitude of studies. Large shallow coseismic slip occurred in the 2015 Illapel (e.g., Li et al, 2016;Melgar et al, 2016), 2011 Tohoku (e.g., Lay et al, 2011b;Iinuma et al, 2012;Ozawa et al, 2012;Satake et al, 2013;Romano et al, 2014;Bletery et al, 2014;Melgar and Bock, 2015;Lay, 2017), 2010 Maule (e.g., Vigny et al, 2011;Yue et al, 2014b;Yoshimoto et al, 2016;Maksymowicz, et al, 2017), and 2004 Sumatra (e.g., Ammon et al, 2005;Rhie et al, 2007;Fujii and Satake, 2007) events, accompanying slip on the downdip portions of the megathrusts.…”

Section: Spatial Variations Of Slipmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In many places, the historical record of great earthquakes is limited, with too few events to establish any reg-Bilek and Lay | Subduction zone megathrust earthquakes GEOSPHERE | Volume 14 | Number 4 ularity, or such limited information about early events that it is hard to establish their relationship to more recent well-documented ruptures. Nonetheless, the time interval since the last great earthquake in a given region and that event's inferred size and spatial extent have quite successfully guided designation of "seismic gaps" as regions with potential for future great earthquakes (e.g., McCann et al, 1979;Nishenko, 1991), albeit without time predictability (e.g., Lay, 2015). Smaller events appear to be irregular in occurrence and to interact strongly with nearby ruptures, causing the seismic gap approach to be less useful than for great events.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Subduction zone megathrust earthquakes

2018

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Subduction zone megathrust faults host Earth's largest earthquakes, along with multitudes of smaller events that contribute to plate convergence. An understanding of the faulting behavior of megathrusts is central to seismic and tsunami hazard assessment around subduction zone margins. Cumulative sliding displacement across each megathrust, which extends from the trench to the downdip transition to interplate ductile deformation, is accommodated by a combination of rapid stick-slip earthquakes, episodic slow-slip events, and quasi-static creep. Megathrust faults have heterogeneous frictional properties that contribute to earthquake diversity, which is considered here in terms of regional variations in maximum recorded magnitudes, Gutenberg-Richter b values, earthquake productivity, and cumulative seismic moment depth distributions for the major subduction zones. Great earthquakes on megathrusts occur in irregular cycles of interseismic strain accumulation, foreshock activity, main-shock rupture, postseismic slip, viscoelastic relaxation, and fault healing, with all stages now being captured by geophysical monitoring. Observations of depth-dependent radiation characteristics, large earthquake slip distributions, variations in rupture velocities, radiated energy and stress drop, and relationships to aftershock distributions and afterslip are discussed. Seismic sequences for very large events have some degree of regularity within subduction zone segments, but this can be complicated by supercycles of intermittent huge ruptures that traverse segment boundaries. Factors influencing variability of large megathrust ruptures, such as large-scale plate structure and kinematics, presence of sediments and fluids, lower-plate bathymetric roughness, and upper-plate structure, are discussed. The diversity of megathrust failure processes presents a suite of natural hazards, including earthquake shaking, submarine slumping, and tsunami generation. Improved monitoring of the offshore environment is needed to better quantify and mitigate the threats posed by megathrust earthquakes globally.

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Section: Spatial Variations Of Slipmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Spatial Variations Of Slipmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Subduction zone megathrust earthquakes

2018

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“…This explains the correlation between triggered outer-rise normal faulting and adjacent slip patch reaching the trench, as evidenced by the northern and southern sections of the 2010 Maule earthquake (Yue et al, 2014). More observational examples, including the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and some tsunami earthquakes, can be found in Lay (2015).…”

Section: Model Application To Dynamic Rupture and Observational Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For example, the similar kinematics marked by a changing direction in displacement vector, seen near the extensional end(s) of a rupture zone (Fig. 1a,b), in the limit analysis model with a decreasing effective basal friction toward the trench (Cubas et al, 2013), in the bending slab near the trench (Lay, 2015), or along the trailing edge of a subducting seamount (Ding and Lin, 2012), explains the common occurrence of triggered normal faulting in the nearby regions. A discussion on triggered reverse faulting near geometric or strength irregularities along the megathrust can be found in Xu, Fukuyama, et al (2015).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simple Crack Models Explain Deformation Induced by Subduction Zone Megathrust Earthquakes

Xu¹,

Fukuyama²,

Yue³

et al. 2016

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

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Following the 2010 Maule and 2011 Tohoku earthquakes, many studies have examined the relation between megathrust earthquakes and subsequent deformation. Here, we apply simple models based on mode II shear cracks, including approximated effects of the free surface to study induced deformation during coseismic and early postseismic stages. We distinguish between buried and surface ruptures represented by a full-crack and a half-crack model, respectively. We adopt an analogybased approach to interpret the half-crack model from well-known results of the full-crack model, which is also validated by our numerical simulations. With transferable knowledge between the two models, we provide easy ways to understand (1) the contrasting deformation patterns in the frontal wedge of the overriding plate between buried ruptures and surface ruptures, (2) the correlation between triggered outer-rise normal faulting and surface ruptures, and (3) the similar deformation patterns for both buried and surface ruptures toward the down-dip end, with a preference for normal faulting in the overriding plate and for reverse faulting in the subducting plate. These model outcomes are consistent with several recent observations on aftershocks and veins in a paleoaccretionary wedge. We further investigate some important transient features during rupture propagation which show that a transition from compressional to extensional deformation in the frontal wedge of the overriding plate is possible even during a single rupture event. Our work provides alternative views for understanding various aspects of subduction zone megathrust earthquakes and raises the issue of important transient features that were typically ignored in previous studies.

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Validation of linearity assumptions for using tsunami waveforms in joint inversion of kinematic rupture models: Application to the 2010 Mentawai M_w 7.8 tsunami earthquake

Yue

Lay

et al. 2015

JGR Solid Earth

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Tsunami observations have particular importance for resolving shallow offshore slip in finite-fault rupture model inversions for large subduction zone earthquakes. However, validations of amplitude linearity and choice of subfault discretization of tsunami Green's functions are essential when inverting tsunami waveforms. We explore such validations using four tsunami recordings of the 25 October 2010 Mentawai M w 7.8 tsunami earthquake, jointly inverted with teleseismic body waves and 1 Hz GPS (high-rate GPS) observations. The tsunami observations include near-field and far-field deep water recordings, as well as coastal and island tide gauge recordings. A nonlinear, dispersive modeling code, NEOWAVE, is used to construct tsunami Green's functions from seafloor excitation for the linear inversions, along with performing full-scale calculations of the tsunami for the inverted models. We explore linearity and finiteness effects with respect to slip magnitude, variable rake determination, and subfault dimensions. The linearity assumption is generally robust for the deep water recordings, and wave dispersion from seafloor excitation is important for accurate description of near-field Green's functions. Breakdown of linearity produces substantial misfits for short-wavelength signals in tide gauge recordings with large wave heights. Including the tsunami observations in joint inversions provides improved resolution of near-trench slip compared with inversions of only seismic and geodetic data. Two rupture models, with fine-grid (15 km) and coarse-grid (30 km) spacing, are inverted for the Mentawai event. Stronger regularization is required for the fine model representation. Both models indicate a shallow concentration of large slip near the trench with peak slip of~15 m. Fully nonlinear forward modeling of tsunami waveforms confirms the validity of these two models for matching the tsunami recordings along with the other data.

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The surge of great earthquakes from 2004 to 2014

Cited by 147 publications

References 149 publications

Subduction zone megathrust earthquakes

Subduction zone megathrust earthquakes

Simple Crack Models Explain Deformation Induced by Subduction Zone Megathrust Earthquakes

Validation of linearity assumptions for using tsunami waveforms in joint inversion of kinematic rupture models: Application to the 2010 Mentawai M_w 7.8 tsunami earthquake

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The surge of great earthquakes from 2004 to 2014

Cited by 147 publications

References 149 publications

Subduction zone megathrust earthquakes

Subduction zone megathrust earthquakes

Simple Crack Models Explain Deformation Induced by Subduction Zone Megathrust Earthquakes

Validation of linearity assumptions for using tsunami waveforms in joint inversion of kinematic rupture models: Application to the 2010 Mentawai Mw 7.8 tsunami earthquake

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Validation of linearity assumptions for using tsunami waveforms in joint inversion of kinematic rupture models: Application to the 2010 Mentawai M_w 7.8 tsunami earthquake