The spatial extent of rainfall events and its relation to precipitation scaling

Lochbihler, Kai; Lenderink, Geert; Siebesma, A. Pier

doi:10.1002/2017gl074857

Cited by 104 publications

(108 citation statements)

References 36 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Here we include finer details of convective rain cells and are able to sample a more continuous spectrum of the their size in the range from around 12 to 18 °C dew point temperature. Given this, we find that intensity and size of rain cells jointly increase under warming atmospheric conditions which is in line with the results of Lochbihler et al () and Lenderink et al ().…”

Section: Conclusion and Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

“…So all of these studies point at a redistribution of rain intensity toward the center of the convective cell at the expense of the spatial extent. However, in contrast to these findings, Lochbihler et al (2017) find that convective cells grow in size at higher dew point temperatures and that this growth accelerates beyond 17 to 18 • C dew point temperature. For the same region, Lenderink et al (2017) obtain from station records of hourly precipitation that rainfall events at higher dew point temperatures blanket more stations than at lower dew point temperatures.…”

Section: 1029/2018jd029954contrasting

confidence: 95%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Response of Extreme Precipitating Cell Structures to Atmospheric Warming

2019

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

With increasing temperatures, it is likely that precipitation extremes increase as well. While, on larger spatial and longer temporal scales, the amplification of rainfall extremes often follows the Clausius‐Clapeyron relation, it has been shown that local short‐term convective precipitation extremes may well exceed the Clausius‐Clapeyron rate of around 6.5%/K. Most studies on this topic have focused exclusively on the intensity aspect, while only few have examined (with contradictory results) how warmer and moister conditions modulate the spatial characteristics of convective precipitation extremes and how these connect to increased intensities. Here we study this relation by using a large eddy simulation model. We simulate one diurnal cycle of heavy convective precipitation activity based on a realistic observation‐based strongly forced case setup. Systematically perturbed initial conditions of temperature and specific humidity enable an examination of the response of intensities and spatial characteristics of the precipitation field over an 8° dew point temperature range. We find that warmer and moister conditions result in an overall increase of both intensities and spatial extent of individual rain cells. Colder conditions favor the development of many but smaller rain cells. Under warmer conditions, we find a reduced number of individual cells, but their size significantly grows along with an increase of intensities over a large part of a rain cell. Combined, these factors lead to larger and more intense rain cells that can produce up to almost 20% more rain per degree warming and therefore have a large impact.

show abstract

Section: Conclusion and Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

Section: 1029/2018jd029954contrasting

confidence: 95%

Response of Extreme Precipitating Cell Structures to Atmospheric Warming

2019

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Nevertheless, in the model, the total precipitable coverage remains practically unchanged with temperature change, as is also assumed in the two statistical methods. This case study finding might contradict the recent observational study of Lochbihler et al (2017), where Dutch radar precipitation data were used to conclude that on average the precipitable cells increase with increasing temperature and precipitation intensity, especially at higher dew point temperatures. On the other hand, Wasko et al (2016) found evidence that precipitation intensity in Australia increases with temperature, while the storm's spatial extent decreases, as a redistribution of moisture towards the center takes place at the cost of the outer region of the precipitable area.…”

Section: Futurecontrasting

confidence: 99%

Future extreme precipitation intensities based on a historic event

Manola

Hurk

Moel

et al. 2018

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. In a warmer climate, it is expected that precipitation intensities will increase, and form a considerable risk of high-impact precipitation extremes. This study applies three methods to transform a historic extreme precipitation event in the Netherlands to a similar event in a future warmer climate, thus compiling a "future weather" scenario. The first method uses an observation-based non-linear relation between the hourly-observed summer precipitation and the antecedent dew-point temperature (the P i -T d relation). The second method simulates the same event by using the convective-permitting numerical weather model (NWP) model HARMONIE, for both present-day and future warmer conditions. The third method is similar to the first method, but applies a simple linear delta transformation to the historic data by using indicators from The Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)'14 climate scenarios. A comparison of the three methods shows comparable intensity changes, ranging from below the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) scaling to a 3 times CC increase per degree of warming. In the NWP model, the position of the events is somewhat different; due to small wind and convection changes, the intensity changes somewhat differ with time, but the total spatial area covered by heavy precipitation does not change with the temperature increase. The P i -T d method is simple and time efficient compared to numerical models. The outcome can be used directly for hydrological and climatological studies and for impact analysis, such as flood-risk assessments.

show abstract

“…Eggert et al (2015) found that convective precipitation dominates precipitation extremes in Germany at scales below 10 km and shorter than 45 min. Over the Netherlands, 90% of summertime convective events were <7 km in cell diameters, and peak precipitation intensities declined rapidly within 5 km from the storm center (Lochbihler et al, 2017). Yet, considerable uncertainties remain in radar-derived quantitative estimates of precipitation intensities at surface level (Berne & Krajewski, 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Strong Dependence of Extreme Convective Precipitation Intensities on Gauge Network Density

Schroeer

Kirchengast

Sungmin

2018

Geophysical Research Letters

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Extreme convective precipitation on subhourly scales is notoriously misrepresented in rain gauge‐based observations, but uncertainties are weakly quantified at the 1 to 30 km scale. We employ a unique observing network, the high‐density WegenerNet and surrounding operational rain gauge network in southeastern Austria, to sample convective precipitation extremes at these scales. By systematically constructing lower‐density networks, we explore how estimated maximum area precipitation depends on observing station density. Using subhourly to hourly temporal resolution, we find a d−0.5(±0.1) power law decay of the event maximum area precipitation over distances d from 1 to 30 km, showing that operational gauge networks underrate extreme convective precipitation falling over small areas. Furthermore, extremes at point scale are found underestimated by operational networks by about 20%. We consider the dependencies representative for short‐duration convective events over similar regions at midlatitudes and the results valuable for high‐resolution climate model evaluation.

show abstract

The spatial extent of rainfall events and its relation to precipitation scaling

Cited by 104 publications

References 36 publications

Response of Extreme Precipitating Cell Structures to Atmospheric Warming

Response of Extreme Precipitating Cell Structures to Atmospheric Warming

Future extreme precipitation intensities based on a historic event

Strong Dependence of Extreme Convective Precipitation Intensities on Gauge Network Density

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About