The Sisyphus Syndrome in Health Revisited

Zweifel, Peter; Steinmann, Lukas; Eugster, Patrick

doi:10.1007/s10754-005-1864-6

Cited by 47 publications

(34 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…This effect, where population aging results in a larger demand for health care aimed at the older population, resulting in further population aging, has been named the Sisyphus syndrome. Empirical evidence on this phenomenon, however, is limited (Zweifel et al 2005). Finally, increases in the share of older people can also be expected to result in a further rise in wages for the health care sector (Dixon 2003;Simoens et al 2005).…”

Section: Interactionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The effect of population aging on health expenditure growth: a critical review

et al. 2013

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Although the consequences of population aging for growth in health expenditures have been widely investigated, research on this topic is rather fragmented. Therefore, these consequences are not fully understood. This paper reviews the consequences of population aging for health expenditure growth in Western countries by combining insights from epidemiological and health economics research. Based on a conceptual model of health care use, we first review evidence on the relationship between age and health expenditures to provide insight into the direct effect of aging on health expenditure growth. Second, we discuss the interaction between aging and the main societal drivers of health expenditures. Aging most likely influences growth in health expenditures indirectly, through its influence on these societal factors. The literature shows that the direct effect of aging depends strongly on underlying health and disability. Commonly used approximations of health, like age or mortality, insufficiently capture complex dynamics in health. Population aging moderately increases expenditures on acute care and strongly increases expenditures on long-term care. The evidence further shows that the most important driver of health expenditure growth, medical technology, interacts strongly with age and health, i.e., population aging reinforces the influence of medical technology on health expenditure growth and vice versa. We therefore conclude that population aging will remain in the centre of policy debate. Further research should focus on the changes in health that explain the effect of longevity gains on health expenditures, and on the interactions between aging and other societal factors driving expenditure growth.

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Section: Interactionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The effect of population aging on health expenditure growth: a critical review

et al. 2013

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“…Zweifel et al [38], in contrast, used a panel of 17 OECD countries over a period of 30 years (1970 2000) and tried to jointly explain HCE and life expectancy. As one of the determinants of HCE, they constructed an artificial variable by multiplying ''life expectancy at 60'' (averaged over both sexes) with the share of persons over 65 in the total population.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Health Care Expenditures and Longevity: Is There a Eubie Blake Effect?

2012

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It is still an open question whether increasing life expectancy as such causes higher health care expenditures (HCE) in a population. According to the ''red herring'' hypothesis, the positive correlation between age and HCE is exclusively due to the fact that mortality rises with age and a large share of HCE is caused by proximity to death. As a consequence, rising longevity through falling mortality rates may even reduce HCE. However, a weakness of many previous empirical studies is that they use cross-sectional evidence to make inferences on a development over time. In this paper, we analyse the impact of rising longevity on the trend of HCE over time by using data from a pseudo-panel of German sickness fund members over the period 1997 2009. Using (dynamic) panel data models, we find that age, mortality and 5-year survival rates each have a positive impact on per-capita HCE. Our explanation for the last finding is that physicians treat patients more aggressively if the results of these treatments pay off over a longer time span, which we call ''Eubie Blake effect''. A simulation on the basis of an official population forecast for Germany is used to isolate the effect of demographic ageing on real per-capita HCE over the coming decades. We find that, while falling mortality rates as such lower HCE, this effect is more than compensated by an increase in remaining life expectancy so that the net effect of ageing on HCE over time is clearly positive.

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“…Long-term care has been the fastest growing component of health-care expenditure since 2000 (Figure 7). Some of the rising costs might be indirect through the increased political weight of the elderly population who support more public health-care spending (Zweifel et al, 2005). Some of the increase is also due to a "Baumol effect" (Baumol, 1961), whereby services in the health-care sector, especially in long-term care, are relatively more labour intensive and do not benefit from the same rate of productivity growth as the overall economy.…”

Section: Fostering Value-based Competition and Better Governance In Hmentioning

confidence: 99%

Raising Public Spending Efficiency in Switzerland

Dutu

2016

OECD Economics Department Working Papers

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The Sisyphus Syndrome in Health Revisited

Cited by 47 publications

References 17 publications

The effect of population aging on health expenditure growth: a critical review

The effect of population aging on health expenditure growth: a critical review

Health Care Expenditures and Longevity: Is There a Eubie Blake Effect?

Raising Public Spending Efficiency in Switzerland

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