The science behind “values”: Applying moral foundations theory to strategic foresight

Abstract

“Values” play an oversized role in strategic foresight: they help define scanning frameworks, direct scanning efforts, inform change driver and scenario development, and underpin change within various systems and domains (e.g., politics, society, etc.). And yet, values are largely understudied within foresight. They are rarely defined consistently or explored with reference to a theoretical model of how values emerge or evolve. Rather, values are researched using dissimilar methods depending on the foresight research at hand, which can lead to gaps in analysis and inconsistency between foresight projects. Moral Foundations Theory (MFT), a social psychological theory that identifies common human moral values, offers a solution. MFT describes six moral values or “foundations”—care, fairness, loyalty, authority, sanctity, and liberty—each explained through the evolutionary development of humanity and detectable across cultures. Within foresight, MFT can be applied to understand and identify shifts in the influence of different values, which can result in more novel and unexpected conclusions. With these potential benefits available, we propose adopting and adapting MFT for use within the foresight to improve the way it approaches, identifies, and utilizes values. Our article unpacks MFT into its core tenets and illustrates how it can be used to inform scanning, change driver development, and scenario construction.

Navigating vaccination choices: The intersecting dynamics of institutional trust, belonging and message perception among Congolese migrants in the UK (A reflexive thematic analysis)

“…Recent literature exploring reasons for vaccine hesitancy among diverse groups has proposed that aligning pro-vaccination messages with the moral values and intuitions that people endorse may be more effective than vaccination mandates. Of note, a UK study (66) found that individuals who more strongly endorsed the moral foundation of liberty, which prizes freedom, choice, and individual rights (67), tended to be more vaccine hesitant. Members of the Collaboration on Social Science and Immunisation (Australia) also recently proposed that less coercive, trust-promoting measures should be prioritised over mandates, along with efforts to understand and address context-specific factors (68).…”

Navigating vaccination choices: The intersecting dynamics of institutional trust, belonging and message perception among Congolese migrants in London, UK (a reflexive thematic analysis)

“…Recent literature exploring reasons for vaccine hesitancy among diverse groups has proposed that aligning pro-vaccination messages with the moral values and intuitions that people endorse may be more effective than vaccination mandates. Of note, a UK study [ 68 ] found that individuals who more strongly endorsed the moral foundation of liberty, which prizes freedom, choice, and individual rights [ 69 ], tended to be more vaccine hesitant. Members of the Collaboration on Social Science and Immunisation (Australia) also recently proposed that less coercive, trust-promoting measures should be prioritised over mandates, along with efforts to understand and address context-specific factors [ 70 ].…”

Foresight and futures thinking for international development co‐operation: Promises and pitfalls

“…Strategic foresight can be thought of as the practical application of futures thinking through a distinct approach to research: it uses a host of tools and techniques to develop a rigorous appreciation of alternative and plausible futures (Cuhls, 2020; Mills & Wilner, 2023). Use of these tools falls across a spectrum of approaches, from foresight practitioners who follow a very prescribed, structured, and sequenced suite of methods and tools, to those who are relatively tools‐agnostic, responding to the needs, focus, and desired outcome of the research question that is being explored.…”