The role of surprise in the attribution process

Stiensmeier‐Pelster, Joachim; Martini, Alice; Reisenzein, Rainer

doi:10.1080/02699939508408963

Cited by 74 publications

(54 citation statements)

References 20 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…So, the classic probability theory maintains that people develop expectations about events unfolding in the world and experience surprise when deviations occur, when schematic predictions fail, or are disconfirmed. The standard evidence for this theory comes from findings of an inverse relationship between judgments/experiences of surprise and estimates of the probability of outcomes (see e.g., Frank, 2009;Lorini & Castelfranchi, 2006;Schützwohl, 1998;Stiensmeier-Pelster, Martini & Reisenzein, 1995). One immediate problem with this account, raised by Kahneman and Miller (1986), is that people cannot always rely on prediction, that often people retrospectively make sense of surprises.…”

Section: Assessing Probability Theories Of Surprisementioning

confidence: 99%

Why some surprises are more surprising than others: Surprise as a metacognitive sense of explanatory difficulty

Foster

Keane

2015

Cognitive Psychology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The UCD community has made this article openly available. Please share how this access benefits you. Your story matters! (@ucd_oa) Some rights reserved. For more information, please see the item record link above. TitleWhy some surprises are more surprising than others: Surprise as a metacognitive sense of explanatory difficulty Publisher's statement This is the author's version of a work that was accepted for publication in Cognitive Psychology. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Cognitive Psychology (VOL 81, ISSUE 2015, (2015 Early theories of surprise, including Darwin's, argued that it was predominantly a basic emotion. Recently, theories have taken a more cognitive view of surprise, casting it as a process of "making sense of surprising events". The current paper advances the view that the essence of this sense-making process is explanation; specifically, that people's perception of surprise is a metacognitive estimate of the cognitive work involved in explaining an abnormal event. So, some surprises are more surprising because they are harder toexplain. This proposal is tested in eight experiments that explore how (i) the contents of memory can influence surprise, (ii) different classes of scenarios can retrieve more/less relevant knowledge from memory to explain surprising outcomes, (iii) how partial explanations constrain the explanation process reducing surprise, (iv) how, overall, any factor that acts to increase the cognitive work in explaining a surprising event, results in higher levels of surprise (e.g., task demands to find several rather than just one explanation). Across the present studies, using a many different materials, paradigms and measures, it is consistently and repeatedly found that the difficulty of explaining a surprising outcome is the best predictor for people's perceptions of the surprisingness of events. Alternative accounts of these results are considered, as are future directions for this research.

show abstract

Section: Assessing Probability Theories Of Surprisementioning

confidence: 99%

Why some surprises are more surprising than others: Surprise as a metacognitive sense of explanatory difficulty

Foster

Keane

2015

Cognitive Psychology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…A primeira é o conceito da desconfirmação de expectativas (Stiensmeier-Pelster et al, 1995) e afirma que o evento surpreendente desconfirma as crenças implícitas, de acordo com as quais o ocorrido era improvável em determinada situação. A segunda abordagem é o conceito da divergência do schema teórico (Meyer et al, 1991;Rumelhart, 1984) e afirma que a surpresa será produzida por um evento que diverge do schema;…”

unclassified

Surpresa e a formação da satisfação do consumidor

Laran

Rossi

2006

RAE electron.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

O artigo apresenta o teste de um novo modelo, teoricamente lastreado, da influência das surpresas positiva e negativa no processo de formação da satisfação. Os resultados de uma pesquisa survey demonstram uma influência negativa da surpresa negativa na satisfação, totalmente mediada pelo afeto negativo, e uma influência positiva da surpresa positiva na satisfação, totalmente mediada pelo afeto positivo. O artigo contribui para o entendimento das principais emoções que determinam a satisfação, com foco na surpresa, que pode ter valência tanto positiva quanto negativa.

show abstract

“…The model combines the situation awareness model described in [7] with the surprise model described in [12]. The former was based on Endsley's threephase theory on situation awareness [5], whereas the latter was inspired, among others, by the expectation disconfirmation theory from [18]. The integration of both models was achieved by matching beliefs about the situation that are generated by the situation awareness model with expectations about the world that are present within the surprise model.…”

Section: Fig 3: Flight Paths (Sa+ Sur-)mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This evaluation consists of determining the degree of expectation disconfirmation [18], how important the event is to the subject and how novel the event is. This evaluation is used to generate the surprise intensity.…”

Section: B the Surprise Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrating Situation Awareness and Surprise: A Computational Agent Model

Bosse¹,

Merk

Treur³

2012

2012 IEEE/WIC/ACM International Conferences on Web Intelligence and Intelligent Agent Technology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract-To increase realism of virtual agents in serious gaming applications, computational models of human cognitive processes can play an important role. This paper presents a computational agent model that integrates models for situation awareness and surprise. The crucial element in the integration of both models is a mechanism that matches beliefs about the situation from the situation awareness model with expectations about the world from the surprise model. To evaluate the integrated model, it has been implemented within an existing simulator for F16 pilots, and four variants of the model were tested within a domain-specific scenario. The results indicate that the model has promising capabilities to enhance realism of virtual agents.

show abstract

The role of surprise in the attribution process

Cited by 74 publications

References 20 publications

Why some surprises are more surprising than others: Surprise as a metacognitive sense of explanatory difficulty

Why some surprises are more surprising than others: Surprise as a metacognitive sense of explanatory difficulty

Surpresa e a formação da satisfação do consumidor

Integrating Situation Awareness and Surprise: A Computational Agent Model

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About