The Regime Shifts Database: a framework for analyzing regime shifts in social-ecological systems

Abstract

Regime shifts, i.e., large, persistent, and usually unexpected changes in ecosystems and social-ecological systems, can have major impacts on ecosystem services, and consequently, on human well-being. However, the vulnerability of different regions to various regime shifts is largely unknown because evidence for the existence of regime shifts in different ecosystems and parts of the world is scattered and highly uneven. Furthermore, research tends to focus on individual regime shifts rather than comparisons across regime shifts, limiting the potential for identifying common drivers that could reduce the risk of multiple regime shifts simultaneously. Here, we introduce the Regime Shifts Database, an open-access database that systematically synthesizes information on social-ecological regime shifts across a wide range of systems using a consistent, comparative framework, providing a wide-ranging information resource for environmental planning, assessment, research, and teaching initiatives. The database currently contains 28 generic types of regime shifts and > 300 specific case studies. Each entry provides a literature-based synthesis of the key drivers and feedbacks underlying the regime shift, as well as impacts on ecosystem services and human well-being, and possible management options. Across the 28 regime shifts, climate change and agriculture-related activities are the most prominent among a wide range of drivers. Biodiversity, fisheries, and aquatic ecosystems are particularly widely affected, as are key aspects of human well-being, including livelihoods, food and nutrition, and an array of cultural ecosystem services. We hope that the database will stimulate further research and teaching on regime shifts that can inform policy and practice and ultimately enhance our collective ability to manage and govern large, abrupt, systemic changes in the Anthropocene.

Toward understanding the dynamics of land change in Latin America: potential utility of a resilience approach for building archetypes of land-systems change

“…Building on the experience of the regime shifts database framework (Biggs et al 2018), we developed a template (Appendix 1) for systematically collecting literature-based and expertknowledge synthetic insights from case studies on land use/cover change. The template substantially reduces complexity from the original source and is designed to facilitate data collection from people without a background in regime shifts, but with extensive expertise on the specific patterns, trends, and drivers involved in particular cases of land-use change.…”

“…The coder should not include his/her own hypothetical thinking if it is not backed up by the literature or expert. This methodological assumption is inherited from the regime shifts database in which only causal hypotheses that can be traced back to scientific publications are reported (Biggs et al 2018). We have relaxed that assumption to include the knowledge of experts.…”

“…Databases are useful for cross comparing and synthesizing knowledge; they can support theory building and identify points of intervention (Biggs et al 2018). Online collaborative platforms that seek to understand local change at the global scale already exist.…”

“…Recent work has shown that some challenges of operationalization can be overcome through the creation of a database of case studies of land-use change (Ramankutty and Coomes 2016). We aim to set foundations for such a database, adapting the comparative framework developed for the regime shifts database (Biggs et al 2018) to integrate more socially driven dynamics. The regime shifts database has allowed the creation of a consistent framework to systematically analyze impacts, key drivers, underlying feedbacks, and management options, as well as facilitating comparison between multiple regime shifts.…”

Migrant remittances can reduce the potential of local forest transitions—a social-ecological regime shift analysis

“…When the system is near a critical threshold, small changes can produce systemic reorganization around alternative sets of structures and processes. Multiple geophysical and ecological systems exhibit regime shifts (Lenton et al 2008, Biggs et al 2018. More recently, a regime shifts perspective has also been used to model qualitative change in coupled social-ecological systems (Lade et al 2013, Lansing et al 2014, Filatova et al 2016.…”