The Record Low Bering Sea Ice Extent in 2018: Context, Impacts, and an Assessment of the Role of Anthropogenic Climate Change

Thoman, Richard; Bhatt, Uma S.; Bieniek, Peter A.; Brettschneider, Brian; Brubaker, Michael; Danielson, Seth L.; Labe, Zachary M.; Lader, Rick; Meier, Walter N.; Walsh, John E.

doi:10.1175/bams-d-19-0175.1

Cited by 54 publications

(43 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…The surge on 31 December was considerably higher at Cape Espenberg with the combined surge and wave run-up height measured at 5 m MHW. This decline in the duration and extent of sea ice in the Bering and Chukchi Seas has been well-documented in the literature (e.g., Douglas, 2010;Mahoney, 2018;Overland et al, 2018;Petty et al, 2018;Walsh et al, 2018;Thoman et al, 2020). According to the Alaska Ocean Observatory Network (AOOS) Sea Ice Atlas, sea ice concentration at the mouth of Kotzebue Sound (67.00 • N 164.50 • W) in December 2016 was the 17th lowest over the entire 168-year record for the month of December (Alaska Ocean Observing System [AOOS], 2014; Figure 12).…”

Section: Potential Linkages To Arctic Warmingsupporting

confidence: 58%

Mid-Winter Breakout of Landfast Sea Ice and Major Storm Leads to Significant Ice Push Event Along Chukchi Sea Coastline

et al. 2020

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During the winter of 2016, anomalous sea ice conditions and a powerful storm culminated in a destructive erosion event along the Chukchi Sea coastline of Cape Espenberg, Alaska. This event is commonly referred to as an "ice push" or "ivu," the Inupiat word for an ice ridging event. In this article, we report the process and impact of this event by combining traditional ecological knowledge, news accounts, meteorological data, remote sensing, and ground surveys. The midwinter detachment of shorefast ice was caused by a low-pressure system and wind-driven swell that destabilized shorefast ice, while northerly winds developed an open-water lead offshore to the eventual impact area. These conditions preceded the impact of an extratropical cyclone on December 31, 2016, when powerful southerly winds and the second largest storm surge in Kotzebue Sound since at least 2003 led to the compressional failure of the ice cover under uniaxial loading perpendicular to the southern coastline of the Cape, resulting in the ice push event. Ice-pushed debris was shoved up to 6.2 m above mean high water, with ∼3.5 km of coastline experiencing net erosion. The largest accumulation of ice-pushed debris had a volume of 1,000 m 3 , and rose 3 + m above the surrounding ground surface even after roughly 6 months of melting. On low-lying areas, driftwood and other debris were deposited 130 m landward by the surge 5.0 m above mean high water, indicating the potential threat of such events to property, infrastructure, and, in this case, archeological sites and associated cultural resources. The anomalous environmental and sea ice conditions that preceded the ivu seem to suggest that such events may occur more frequently in a warmer Arctic.

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Section: Potential Linkages To Arctic Warmingsupporting

confidence: 58%

Mid-Winter Breakout of Landfast Sea Ice and Major Storm Leads to Significant Ice Push Event Along Chukchi Sea Coastline

et al. 2020

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“…Even in the most recent decade of the 2010s, most extreme low temperature events occurred prior to 2013. The rapid decline in low temperature days beginning in the 2010s is likely related to the loss of sea ice cover (Thoman et al 2020). The frequency of observed extreme low temperature events was similar across both models.…”

Section: Historical Climatology and Projections In Nomementioning

confidence: 75%

“…In the Arctic, there is strong evidence that temperatures have increased in terms of climatological means, yearly averages, and daily highs (AMAP 2017). Higher temperatures have contributed to sea ice loss, more frequent severe wildfires, and a shortened snow season in Alaska (Thoman et al 2020;Thoman and Walsh 2019). There is high confidence in future changes for air temperature, precipitation, and sea ice in the Arctic.…”

Section: Climate Change and Extreme Weathermentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Fourth, research on the historical socio-economic impacts of extreme weather events in Alaska often focuses on individual events (AMAP 2017;Brunner et al 2004). For example, the 2018 record low Bering sea ice extent led to shifting marine mammal die off events and sightings of animals outside their traditional range, loss or impairment of maritime subsistence activities, loss of an ice airstrip, and enhanced coastal flooding (Thoman et al 2020). Marine ecosystem impacts of recent extreme years in the Pacific subarctic region have also been documented (Huntington et al 2020).…”

Section: Socio-economic Impactsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, risk assessments are complicated by challenges in monitoring and assessing long-term historical trends in impacts and estimating projected change (Downton et al 2005;Morss et al 2011). This is especially the case in Alaska, where sparse observational networks limit documentation and analyses of extreme weather events and impacts are often only documented for individual events (Brunner et al 2004;Thoman et al 2020). As such, there is a limited understanding of historical trends and projected impacts from extreme weather events in the Arctic, though impacts and local observations of change are documented (AMAP 2017;Larsen et al 2014;Markon et al 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Integrating archival analysis, observational data, and climate projections to assess extreme event impacts in Alaska

et al. 2020

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Understanding potential risks, vulnerabilities, and impacts to weather extremes and climate change are key information needs for coastal planners and managers in support of climate adaptation. Assessing historical trends and potential socio-economic impacts is especially difficult in the Arctic given limitations on availability of weather observations and historical impacts. This study utilizes a novel interdisciplinary approach that integrates archival analysis, observational data, and climate model downscaling to synthesize information on historical and projected impacts of extreme weather events in Nome, Alaska. Over 300 impacts (1990–2018) are identified based on analyses of the Nome Nugget newspaper articles and Storm Data entries. Historical impacts centered on transportation, community activities, and utilities. Analysis of observed and ERA5 reanalysis data indicates that impacts are frequently associated with high wind, extreme low temperatures, heavy snowfall events, and winter days above freezing. Downscaled output (2020–2100) from two climate models suggests that there will be changes in the frequency and timing of these extreme weather events. For example, extreme cold temperature is projected to decrease through the 2040s and then rarely occurs afterwards, and extreme wind events show little change before the 2070s. Significantly, our findings also reveal that not all weather-related extremes will change monotonically throughout the twenty-first century, such as extreme snowfall events that will increase through the 2030s before declining in the 2040s. The dynamical nature of projected changes in extreme events has implications for climate adaptation planning.

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The Alaska Blocking Index, version 2: Analysis and covariability with statewide and large‐scale climate from 1948 to 2020

Ballinger

Walsh

Alexeev

et al. 2022

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Monitoring and quantifying high-latitude atmospheric circulation variability and trends are important towards understanding the anatomy of extreme events and constraining their probabilities under continued Arctic change. The greater Alaska region stands out as one region of enhanced warming and environmental changes over the Arctic amplification era, which has shown proclivity to extreme events and speaks to the need to consistently monitor overlying atmospheric variability. In this paper, we describe the creation and analysis of an updated, daily mid-tropospheric Alaska Blocking Index (ABI) time series from 1948 to 2020. Sensitivity testing and index modifications from the initial dataset are discussed, and the new ABI is evaluated over the full period and subperiods. Additionally, we assess the role of the ABI as a regional climate indicator by analysing its variability against surface air temperature and precipitation from 13 climate divisions across Alaska as well as broaderscale hemispheric temperatures. Months of the highest ABI means mainly transpired in the most recent climatological period, 1991-2020, and most notably during the spring and autumn transition seasons, reflecting the nonstationary nature of the jet stream magnitude through time atop Alaska. ABI trends are positive across all months, seasons, and annually only in the 1991-2020 period. Contemporaneous ABI values are strongly and positively correlated with air temperature across all Alaskan climate divisions during the warm season, but negatively correlated with winter temperatures over southeastern Alaska. Meanwhile, the ABI is significantly anticorrelated with summer precipitation over Interior and southern Alaska, but only over southeastern Alaska in other seasons. The ABI is statistically differentiated from the primary modes of atmospheric variability as shown by its generally weak correlations with the Arctic Dipole and the Arctic Oscillation (r ≤ 0.40).

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The Record Low Bering Sea Ice Extent in 2018: Context, Impacts, and an Assessment of the Role of Anthropogenic Climate Change

Cited by 54 publications

References 11 publications

Mid-Winter Breakout of Landfast Sea Ice and Major Storm Leads to Significant Ice Push Event Along Chukchi Sea Coastline

Mid-Winter Breakout of Landfast Sea Ice and Major Storm Leads to Significant Ice Push Event Along Chukchi Sea Coastline

Integrating archival analysis, observational data, and climate projections to assess extreme event impacts in Alaska

The Alaska Blocking Index, version 2: Analysis and covariability with statewide and large‐scale climate from 1948 to 2020

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