volume 1, issue 2, P331-350 1995
DOI: 10.1017/s1357321700001100
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M.J. Murphy

Abstract: ABSTRACTForecasts of mortality are included in official population projections. The methodology and performance of British mortality forecasts is reviewed and compared with those of the United States of America in the quarter century up to 1989. The results are found to have been surprisingly poor when compared, for example, with the more widely-criticised fertility component; similar conclusions hold for other developed countries. Although the methodology has become more sophisticated over the years by using …

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