The NADI Mathematical Model on the Danger Level of the Bili-Bili Dam

Abstract

The research discusses the NADI mathematical model due to the overflow of the Bili-Bili dam, using secondary data obtained through online literature review by collecting various information related to the Bili-Bili Dam, starting from the Jeberang River Scheme, the chronology of floods, normal or dry conditions, and dam operation patterns. The aim of this study is to predict the level of danger of Bili-bili dam overflow over time, considering extreme weather factors and standard operating procedures performed by humans. The research uses analytical and computational methods. The study obtained the NADI mathematical model due to the overflow of the Bili-Bili dam, with two equilibrium points: (1) the equilibrium point free of disaster, (2) the disaster equilibrium point, and a basic disaster reproduction number of R0 = 1.219. This indicates that the water discharge from the dam is high and has an impact on the overflowing water for communities around the Jeneberang river. Therefore, it can be concluded that the NADI model can be used to simulate the Bili-bili dam process based on extreme weather and dam SOP, and predict the level of danger of Bili-bili dam overflow, which is also a novelty that has not been done in previous studies.