The March 1993 Superstorm Cyclogenesis: Incipient Phase Synoptic- and Convective-Scale Flow Interaction and Model Performance

Dickinson, Michael; Bosart, Lance F.; Bracken, W. Edward; Hakim, Gregory J.; Schultz, David M.; Bedrick, Mary A.; Tyle, Kevin R.

doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1997)125<3041:tmscip>2.0.co;2

Cited by 63 publications

(42 citation statements)

References 54 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The observed diabatic influence of the PREs on downstream ridge amplification is comparable to the synoptic-scale feedback from diabatic heating associated with heavy precipitation accompanying tropical convection (e.g., Sardeshmukh and Hoskins 1988), MCSs (e.g. ; Fritsch and Maddox 1981;Chen et al 2006;Saulo et al 2007;Metz and Bosart 2010), recurving and transitioning TCs (e.g., Bosart and Lackmann 1995;Atallah and Bosart 2003;Riemer et al 2008;Torn and Hakim 2009;Archambault 2010;Riemer and Jones 2010), extratropical cyclones (e.g., Dickinson et al 1997;Bosart 1999;Pomroy and Thorpe 2000;Archambault et al 2010), and positively tilted PV streamers (e.g., Massacand et al 2001).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 68%

“…This shortening of the halfwavelength of the trough-ridge pattern was associated with increased QG forcing for ascent that contributed to the maturation of PRE 3 and the subsequent ET of TC Ike. Bosart and Lackmann (1995), in their analysis of the reintensification of TC David (1979) over the Northeast, and Dickinson et al (1997) and Bosart (1999), in their analysis of the March 1993 ''Superstorm'' over eastern North America, pointed to the dynamical importance of the shortening of the downstream half wavelength due to diabatically driven synoptic-scale ridging and jet stream intensification in augmenting QG forcing for ascent over cyclone centers during cyclogenesis. The observed diabatic influence of the PREs on downstream ridge amplification is comparable to the synoptic-scale feedback from diabatic heating associated with heavy precipitation accompanying tropical convection (e.g., Sardeshmukh and Hoskins 1988), MCSs (e.g.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

An Analysis of Multiple Predecessor Rain Events ahead of Tropical Cyclones Ike and Lowell: 10–15 September 2008

et al. 2012

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

An analysis of three predecessor rain events (PREs) that occurred ahead of North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) Ike and east Pacific TC Lowell during 10-15 September 2008 is presented. The three PREs produced all-time daily record rainfall at many locations, including Lubbock, Texas (189.5 mm); Wichita, Kansas (262 mm); and Chicago-O'Hare, Illinois (169 mm), on 11-13 September, respectively. PRE 1 organized over Texas on 10 September with moisture from a stalled frontal boundary and the Bay of Campeche, and matured with moisture from TC Lowell. PRE 2 organized over the Texas Panhandle on 11 September with moisture from the Bay of Campeche, and developed and matured over Kansas and Missouri with moisture from TC Lowell. PRE 3 developed over Texas on 11 September, merged with and absorbed PRE 2 over Kansas and Missouri, and matured as it ingested moisture from TC Ike. All three PREs matured in the equatorward entrance region of an intensifying subtropical jet stream (STJ).Heavy rainfall with the three PREs occurred along a plume of moist air characterized by high precipitable water values that extended poleward over the central United States near the juxtaposition of the nose of a low-level jet, a region of lower-tropospheric forcing for ascent along a surface baroclinic zone, and the STJ equatorward entrance region. The cumulative upscale effect of persistent deep convection from the three PREs enhanced and ''locked in'' a favorable upper-tropospheric flow pattern conducive to ridge development over the Ohio Valley and STJ intensification over the central U.S. and Great Lakes region.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 68%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Analysis of Multiple Predecessor Rain Events ahead of Tropical Cyclones Ike and Lowell: 10–15 September 2008

et al. 2012

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Many studies suggest that large numerical model forecast errors may result from a failure of the numerical model to adequately capture diabatically driven ridge amplification (e.g., Davies and Didone 2013;Gray et al 2014), whether associated with recurving TCs (e.g., Henderson et al 1999;Torn 2010), mesoscale convective systems (e.g., Dickinson et al 1997;Rodwell et al 2013), or warm conveyor belts of explosively deepening extratropical cyclones (e.g., Doyle et al 2014). A question to be addressed is whether forecast error and uncertainty associated with the negative PV advection by the irrotational wind are systematic sources of forecast error and uncertainty in the midlatitudes.…”

Section: Summary and Future Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Composite Perspective of the Extratropical Flow Response to Recurving Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones

Archambault

Keyser

Bosart

et al. 2015

Monthly Weather Review

Self Cite

119

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This study investigates the composite extratropical flow response to recurving western North Pacific tropical cyclones (WNP TCs), and the dependence of this response on the strength of the TC-extratropical flow interaction as defined by the negative potential vorticity advection (PV) by the irrotational wind associated with the TC. The 2.58 NCEP-NCAR reanalysis is used to construct composite analyses of all 1979-2009 recurving WNP TCs and of subsets that undergo strong and weak TC-extratropical flow interactions.Findings indicate that recurving WNP TCs are associated with the amplification of a preexisting Rossby wave train (RWT) that disperses downstream and modifies the large-scale flow pattern over North America. This RWT affects approximately 2408 of longitude and persists for approximately 10 days. Recurving TCs associated with strong TC-extratropical flow interactions are associated with a stronger extratropical flow response than those associated with weak TC-extratropical flow interactions. Compared with weak interactions, strong interactions feature a more distinct upstream trough, stronger and broader divergent outflow associated with stronger midlevel frontogenesis and forcing for ascent over and northeast of the TC, and stronger upper-level PV frontogenesis that promotes more pronounced jet streak intensification. During strong interactions, divergent outflow helps anchor and amplify a downstream ridge, thereby amplifying a preexisting RWT from Asia that disperses downstream to North America. In contrast, during weak interactions, divergent outflow weakly amplifies a downstream ridge, such that a RWT briefly amplifies in situ before dissipating over the western-central North Pacific.

show abstract

“…Several recent studies have used PV surgery as a cornerstone of their diagnosis of particular events (Huo et al 1999;Dickinson et al 1997;Davis and Bosart 2002). In a study more germane to the current topic, Roebber et al (2002) both remove and amplify the PV associated with an upper-tropospheric shortwave trough to assess its contribution to the 3 May 1999 Oklahoma tornado outbreak.…”

Section: Pv Modification Schemementioning

confidence: 99%

Potential Vorticity Diagnosis of the Severe Convective Regime. Part I: Methodology

Gold

Nielsen‐Gammon

2008

Monthly Weather Review

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Observational and modeling studies have shown that shear and instability are powerful predictors of the likelihood of severe weather and tornadoes. To the extent that upper-tropospheric forecast errors can be described as potential vorticity (PV) anomalies on the forecasted PV field, knowing (and being able to quantify) the effects of such errors on shear and instability would allow forecasters to anticipate the effects of those errors on the likely mode of severe weather. To test the sensitivity of the severe convective environment to PV fluctuations, a PV inversion framework is adopted that utilizes nonlinear balance. The observed PV field is modified in a way that mimics realistic perturbations of trough intensity, location, or shape. Soundings, including moisture profiles, are reconstructed from the balanced geopotential height field assuming that air parcels conserve mixing ratio while their isentropic surfaces are displaced upward or downward by the addition of anomalous PV. Unperturbed balanced soundings agree reasonably well with full, unbalanced soundings, and differences are attributable to departures from nonlinear balance in areas of strong vorticity or acceleration. Balanced vertical wind profiles do not include the effects of friction, so the vertical shear of the balanced wind departs unacceptably from total shear within the lowest 1 km of the troposphere. The balanced wind perturbations are added to the total analyzed shear profile to estimate the effect of PV perturbations on shear and storm-relative helicity. By this process, the importance of typical or hypothesized upper-tropospheric forecast errors may be addressed in an idealized, case-study, or operational context.

show abstract

The March 1993 Superstorm Cyclogenesis: Incipient Phase Synoptic- and Convective-Scale Flow Interaction and Model Performance

Cited by 63 publications

References 54 publications

An Analysis of Multiple Predecessor Rain Events ahead of Tropical Cyclones Ike and Lowell: 10–15 September 2008

An Analysis of Multiple Predecessor Rain Events ahead of Tropical Cyclones Ike and Lowell: 10–15 September 2008

A Composite Perspective of the Extratropical Flow Response to Recurving Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones

Potential Vorticity Diagnosis of the Severe Convective Regime. Part I: Methodology

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About