The life cycle impact for platinum group metals and lithium to 2070 via surplus cost potential

Abstract

Purpose A surplus cost potential (SCP) indicator has been developed as a measure of resource scarcity in the life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) context. To date, quality SCP estimates for other minerals than fossils are either not yet available or suffer methodological and data limitations. This paper overcomes these limitations and demonstrate how SCP estimates for metals can be calculated without the utilisation of ore grade function and by collecting primary economic and geological data. Methods Data were collected in line with the geographical distribution, mine type, deposit type and production volumes and total production costs in order to construct costcumulative availability curves for platinum group metals (PGMs) and lithium. These curves capture the total amount of known mineral resources that can be recovered profitably at various prices from different types of mineral deposits under current conditions (this is, current technology, prevailing labour and other input prices). They served as a basis for modelling the marginal cost increase, a necessary parameter for estimating the SCP indicator. Surplus costs were calculated for different scenario projections for future mineral production considering future market dynamics, recyclability rates, demand-side technological developments and economic growth and by applying declining social discount rate. Results and discussion Surplus costs were calculated for three mineral production scenarios, ranging from (US$ 2014 /kg) 6545-8354 for platinum, 3583-4573 for palladium, 8281-10,569 for rhodium, 513-655 for ruthenium, 3201-4086 for iridium and 1.70-5.80 for lithium. Compared with the current production costs, the results indicate that problematic price increases of lithium are unlikely if the latest technological trends in the automotive sector will continue up to 2070. Surplus costs for PGMs are approximately one-third of the current production costs in all scenarios; hence, a threat of their price increases by 2070 will largely depend on the discovery of new deposits and the ability of new technologies to push these costs down over time. This also applies to lithium if the increasing electrification of road transport will continue up to 2070. Conclusions This study provides useful insight into the availability of PGMs and lithium up to 2070. It proves that if time and resources permit, reliable surplus cost estimates can be calculated, at least in the short-run, based on the construction of one's own curves with the level of quality comparable to expert-driven consulting services. Modelling and incorporating unknown deposits and potential future mineral production costs into these curves is the subject of future work.

Iridium and Ruthenium oxide miniature pH sensors: Long-term performance

“…However, the performance and characteristics of IrOx can vary greatly, particularly long term. Furthermore, IrOx is one of the more expensive platinum group metals (9). Although it shows superior sensitivity, in many cases super-Nernstian with sensitivities above -60 mV pH -1 due to its increased proton exchange capacity in the hydrated oxide film, application for long time monitoring is limited primarily due to long hydration times and delamination, limiting life-time to 2 months (6,(10)(11)(12)(13).…”

Sustainable development model for measuring and managing sustainability in the automotive sector

“…Although the valuation coefficients developed by PwC are the intellectual property of the company, the valuation methods and tools that the company uses are publicly available (see Kering, 2013). Those 10 assessment criteria were supplemented by the surplus cost models developed through this doctorate project (see Jasiński, Meredith, & Kirwan, 2018 for surplus cost modelling) to measure the external impacts of energy consumption and resources and minerals consumption. Valuation models for nine assessment criteria (stratospheric ozone depletion, ecotoxicity, human toxicity, vehicle safety, congestion, noise and vibration, vehicle interior air quality, labor rights, and human rights) were still subject to development by the time this study was completed.…”

“…The ReCiPe assesses the impact on resource scarcity based on the surplus cost concept, defined as a global future cost increase due to marginal resource use (Ponsioen, Vieira, & Goedkoop, 2014). If compared with the current production costs, the surplus cost can indicate whether the problematic price increases of a mineral are possible (or is unlikely) over time, if the latest technological trends and consumption patterns will continue (Jasiński, Meredith, & Kirwan, 2018).…”

Our mental models of mineral depletion —and why they matter.

“…For example, many minor metals, such as indium, niobium, thorium, rhodium, palladium, and the rare earths, are now produced as by-products or co-products with other metals. Major new uses in electric cars, renewable energy facilities, or other high tech products could cause their demand to surge requiring their production as main products at much higher costs (Lokanc et al, 2015;Jordan et al, 2015;Jasiński et al, 2017). Even major metals could conceivably experience sharply higher production costs and prices in the future if the low-cost sources of supply from which they are currently extracted become exhausted.…”