The Investment Implications of Global Energy Trends

Birol, Fatih

doi:10.1093/oxrep/gri008

Cited by 9 publications

(3 citation statements)

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“…Many programmes from governments and development agencies are based on these assumed positive linkages between energy supply and opportunities for income generation, looking for winwin situations. This issue is crucial in a context where investors in the energy sector are sought to meet the unmet energy demands and the increasing volumes of those demands worldwide (Barnes, 2007;Barnett, 2000;Birol, 2005;International Energy Agency, 2009). The number of people currently without access to electricity, at 1.4 billion (compared to 1.6 billion one decade ago) shows the size of the challenge to increase the viability of supply.…”

Section: Energy and Income Generationmentioning

confidence: 99%

The role of energy in creating opportunities for income generation in the Indian Himalayas

Dijk

2012

Energy Policy

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Although it is clear that there are links between access to modern energy carriers and economic development, the necessary understanding of these links is lacking. Research in literature shows mixed results. This paper studies the mechanisms that link energy supply and impacts on income generation. Empirical data from 264 small scale enterprises in 16 clusters of villages in the Indian Himalayas is analysed. The steps between energy supply and impacts on enterprise are stratified, studying actual energy use of energy services. The analysis shows that for the majority of typical enterprises in rural areas, which are informal enterprises with less than 6 workers, the impacts on incomes are low even though the uptake of electricity in enterprises is high. The key factor influencing impacts on incomes is limitations in access to markets for enterprise products, especially social access. For most small scale rural entrepreneurs the main impacts of energy access are on wellbeing. The findings are discussed to come to policy recommendations in the field of energy supply and complementary fields to achieving positive impacts on rural development.

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Section: Energy and Income Generationmentioning

confidence: 99%

The role of energy in creating opportunities for income generation in the Indian Himalayas

Dijk

2012

Energy Policy

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“…Relatively high levels of medium‐term investment levels would be required to meet projected increased demand (Birol 2005). Conventional forecasts, though, assume that ample global reserves of oil remain (EIA 2005; OECD 2004: ch.…”

Section: Energy Demand and Economic Expansionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Heavy Constraints on a "Weightless World"?.

Perraton

2006

Am J Economics & Sociology

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. Late 1990s claims of a shift toward a new economy in the United States and other developed economies were said to accelerate earlier trends reducing the material content of production. The shift toward a postindustrial services economy is said to have been accentuated by application of new information and communications technologies, dramatically reducing the material content of production. This offers the possibility for continuous economic expansion unconstrained by resources supply. This paper provides a critical analysis of these trends in relation to resource use by developed economies. It shows that trends toward a lower material content of production are occurring, and this has led to poor demand conditions for primary producers. Nevertheless, these trends fall well short of eliminating Western economies’ dependence on key resources. This paper shows the changing role of resources in economic activity among developed economies.

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“…As the scope of such models is expanding across multiple infrastructures and energy carriers [1] they become increasingly detailed and complex [2]. Hence, well-founded information on future energy demand with the high temporal and spatial resolution is one of the most crucial inputs for such models, having a direct impact on associated decision-making processes [3] affecting real-time grid operation as well as long-term infrastructure extension planning. Accordingly, there is a strong need for reliable models predicting and simulating energy demand (in this article, all methods for the mathematical representation of energy demand or consumption are summarized under the term "energy demand modeling".…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling Energy Demand—A Systematic Literature Review

et al. 2021

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In this article, a systematic literature review of 419 articles on energy demand modeling, published between 2015 and 2020, is presented. This provides researchers with an exhaustive overview of the examined literature and classification of techniques for energy demand modeling. Unlike in existing literature reviews, in this comprehensive study all of the following aspects of energy demand models are analyzed: techniques, prediction accuracy, inputs, energy carrier, sector, temporal horizon, and spatial granularity. Readers benefit from easy access to a broad literature base and find decision support when choosing suitable data-model combinations for their projects. Results have been compiled in comprehensive figures and tables, providing a structured summary of the literature, and containing direct references to the analyzed articles. Drawbacks of techniques are discussed as well as countermeasures. The results show that among the articles, machine learning (ML) techniques are used the most, are mainly applied to short-term electricity forecasting on a regional level and rely on historic load as their main data source. Engineering-based models are less dependent on historic load data and cover appliance consumption on long temporal horizons. Metaheuristic and uncertainty techniques are often used in hybrid models. Statistical techniques are frequently used for energy demand modeling as well and often serve as benchmarks for other techniques. Among the articles, the accuracy measured by mean average percentage error (MAPE) proved to be on similar levels for all techniques. This review eases the reader into the subject matter by presenting the emphases that have been made in the current literature, suggesting future research directions, and providing the basis for quantitative testing of hypotheses regarding applicability and dominance of specific methods for sub-categories of demand modeling.

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The Investment Implications of Global Energy Trends

Cited by 9 publications

References 0 publications

The role of energy in creating opportunities for income generation in the Indian Himalayas

The role of energy in creating opportunities for income generation in the Indian Himalayas

Heavy Constraints on a "Weightless World"?.

Modeling Energy Demand—A Systematic Literature Review

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