The Influence of Economic Business Cycles on United States Suicide Rates

Abstract

A number of social science investigators have shown that a downturn in the economy leads to an increase in the suicide rate. However, the previous works on the subject are flawed by the fact that they employ years as their temporal unit of analysis. This time period is so large that it makes it difficult for investigators to precisely determine the length of the lag effect, while at the same time removing the autocorrelation effects. Also, although most works on suicide and the business cycle employ unemployment as a measure of a downturn in the business cycle, the average duration of unemployment represents a better measure for determining the social impact of an economic downturn. From 1947 to 1977 the average monthly duration of unemployment is statistically related to the suicide rate using multivariate time-series analysis. From 1910 to 1939 the Ayres business index, a surrogate measure for movement in the business cycle, is statistically related to the monthly suicide rate. An examination of the findings confirms that in most cases a downturn in the economy causes an increase in the suicide rate.

Effects of socioeconomic factors on secular trends in suicide in Japan, 1953–86

“…The parallelism between suicide rates and unemployment rate was evident for the period 1953-72 in both men and women (Fig. 2), which is in keeping with other findings (Vigderhous & Fishman, 1978;Boor, 1980;Kreitman & Platt, 1984;Platt, 1984;Platt & Kreitman, 1984;Wasserman, 1984;Cormier & Klerman, 1985). However, the correlation between suicide rates and unemployment rate weakened in men and became negative in women for the period 1973-86.…”

Filicide and fatal abuse in Japan, 1994–2005: Temporal trends and regional distribution

“…Several authors have pointed out the correlation between suicide rate and economy fluctuations. [56][57][58][59][60] Several studies have suggested a trend of regional suicide rate differences, consistent with those of unemployment rates or other socioeconomic index in Japan. [61][62][63] Archer and Gartner have reported that the correlation between homicide rates and unemployment rates varies from nation to nation.…”

Attitudes Toward the Unification of Western Europe and Cross‐National Suicide Rates: Eight European Countries, 1973–1990

“…Breault and Barkey (1982) reported that deaths due to political violence (their measure of political integration) in 42 nations during the 1960s were inversely related to crude suicide rates. While Boor (1982) found support for Durkheim's theory of political integration, Marshall (1981) and Wasserman (1984a; 1984b) report that political integration is indirectly related to suicide because political crises stimulate economic activity, which in turn lowers the suicide rate. We examine, therefore, unemployment and annual percentage change in the gross domestic product per capita in our analysis.…”