The importance of reduced meat and dairy consumption for meeting stringent climate change targets

Abstract

For agriculture, there are three major options for mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions: 1) productivity improvements, particularly in the livestock sector; 2) dedicated technical mitigation measures; and 3) human dietary changes. The aim of the paper is to estimate long-term agricultural GHG emissions, under different mitigation scenarios, and to relate them to the emissions space compatible with the 2°C temperature target. Our estimates include emissions up to 2070 from agricultural soils, manure management, enteric fermentation and paddy rice fields, and are based on IPCC Tier 2 methodology. We find that baseline agricultural CO 2 -equivalent emissions (using Global Warming Potentials with a 100 year time horizon) will be approximately 13 Gton CO 2 eq/year in 2070, compared to 7.1 Gton CO 2 eq/year 2000. However, if faster growth in livestock productivity is combined with dedicated technical mitigation measures, emissions may be kept to 7.7 Gton CO 2 eq/year in 2070. If structural changes in human diets are included, emissions may be reduced further, to 3-5 Gton CO 2 eq/year in 2070. The total annual emissions for meeting the 2°C target with a chance above 50 % is in the order of 13 Gton CO 2 eq/year or less in 2070, for all sectors combined. We conclude that reduced ruminant meat and dairy consumption will be indispensable for reaching the 2°C target with a high probability, unless unprecedented advances in technology take place.

Edible insects are the future?

“…The sustainability of meat consumption, in particular ruminant meat (13) , has been questioned as the livestock sector is responsible for more than 14 % of all greenhouse gas emissions (CH 4 and NH 4 ) (24) and 59 % of the global agricultural ammonia emissions (25) . Implementing mitigation strategies in livestock production (24,26) will not be enough; dietary changes will still be needed in order to meet the 2°C temperature-increase target set by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (27,28) . To use other protein sources is another option and seaweed, duckweed, cultured meat and insects have been proposed (29) .…”

Reducing meat consumption in developed and transition countries to counter climate change and biodiversity loss: a review of influence factors

“…Moreover, the significance of products from ruminants is worthy of note. Reducing ruminant meat and dairy products has the highest impact on GHG emissions compared to other foods (Gerber et al 2013;Hedenus et al 2014;Meier and Christen 2013). However, the question of how to achieve this change in dietary behaviour in the direction of reduced meat consumption as well as animal product consumption in general has yet to receive the attention it deserves (Dibb and Fitzpatrick 2014;Laestadius et al 2013;Westhoek et al 2011).…”

Help the climate, change your diet: A cross-sectional study on how to involve consumers in a transition to a low-carbon society

“…Experts and policy-makers increasingly agree that in order to mitigate climate change a transition is required to achieve a low-carbon society, with patterns of consumption that are consistent with low levels of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and that extremely valuable results can be achieved through changes in the Western diet (see CarlssonKanyama & González, 2011;Hedenus, Wirsenius, & Johansson, 2014;Hoolohan, Berners-Lee, McKinstry-West, & Hewitt, 2013;Popp, Lotze-Campen, & Bodirsky, 2011;Stehfest et al, 2009;Westhoek et al, 2014). For instance, Stehfest et al (2009) estimate that a global transition toward low-meat diets may reduce the costs of climate change mitigation by as much as 50% in 2050.…”