The Impact of Weather Forecast Inconsistency on User Trust

Abstract

For high-impact weather events, forecasts often start days in advance. Forecasters believe that consistency among subsequent forecasts is important to user trust and can be reluctant to make changes when newer, potentially more accurate information becomes available. However, to date, there is little empirical evidence for an effect of inconsistency among weather forecasts on user trust, although the reduction in trust due to inaccuracy is well documented. The experimental studies reported here compared the effects of forecast inconsistency and inaccuracy on user trust. Participants made several school closure decisions based on snow accumulation forecasts for one and two days prior to the target event. Consistency and accuracy were varied systematically. Although inconsistency reduced user trust, the effect of the reduction due to inaccuracy was greater in most cases suggesting that it is inadvisable for forecasters to sacrifice accuracy in favor of consistency.

Effective uncertainty visualization for aftershock forecast maps

“…results indicate for designing public forecast maps (Seipel and Lim, 2017;Correll et al, 2018). In contrast, other experimental literature on uncertainty communication (e.g., Burgeno and Joslyn (2020); Joslyn and LeClerc (2012); Van Der Bles et al…”

End‐user satisfaction with Hurricane Dorian information in Atlantic Canada

“…While a growing body of research suggests that addressing uncertainty in forecasts effectively builds end‐user trust (Burgeno & Joslyn, 2020; Joslyn & Grounds, 2015; Joslyn & LeClerc, 2012; LeClerc & Joslyn, 2015), ‘Sharpiegate’ inadvertently reflects concerns that meteorologists frequently raise regarding probabilistic forecast communication (i.e., that end‐users may ignore a large body of evidence indicating risks are high, instead favouring a minority view that risks are low). Former‐President Trump's ad hoc extension of Hurricane Dorian's track into Alabama represents an inverse of meteorologists' concern (i.e., an overstatement of very minimal risk).…”

“…Secondly, many end-users were aware of the shifting messaging around Hurricane Dorian's intensity. This inconsistency seemed to convey a sense of uncertainty (e.g., Burgeno & Joslyn, 2020) that adjusted end-users' expectations. This supports suggestions that probabilistic forecast information may be a better strategy for communicating information to the public and building end-user trust.…”

“…This reflects concerns that false alarms negatively impact user confidence (e.g., Barnes et al, 2007). Although the connection between false alarms and trust in the context of high‐impact weather has been repeatedly challenged (Barnes et al, 2007; Burgeno & Joslyn, 2020; Dow & Cutter, 1998; LeClerc & Joslyn, 2015), it is nevertheless highly pervasive. As such, an emphasis on accuracy continues to shape operational meteorology even though weather events are often difficult to verify (Barnes et al, 2007) and/or neatly categorize (Spinney, 2019).…”

A Supplementary Approach for Effective Anti-Doping Education: A Pilot Study Applying Refutation Texts to Modify Misperception of the Whereabouts System

“…Thus, the outcome is expected for participants who choose to predict the protagonist’s action and are more likely to have a positive perception. It is well known that when the outcome of a weather forecast is not consistent with the actual weather, the trust in that forecast is reduced [ 38 , 39 ]. It can thus be suggested that the expected outcome might contribute to a positive perception of the whereabouts initiative.…”