The Impact of Refugee Crises on Host Labor Markets: The Case of the Syrian Refugee Crisis in Turkey

Abstract

The Impact of Refugee Crises on Host Labor Markets:The Case of the Syrian Refugee Crisis in Turkey *The civil war in Syria has culminated into major refugee crises in its neighboring countries. By the end of 2013 more than half a million people were seeking shelter in cities and refugee camps in Turkey. We analyze how the Syrian refugee influx in Turkey has affected food and housing prices, employment rates and internal migration patterns in regions of Turkey where refugees are being accommodated. Refugee camps are geographically concentrated near the Syrian border, which enables us to employ the rest of regional Turkey as control group with a difference-in-difference approach to analyze the impact on local economies. Our findings suggest that housing and to a lesser degree food prices increased, but employment rates of natives in various skill groups are largely unaffected. Incumbent natives appear to be staying put considering the limited migration out of the region, but there is a significant decline in internal migration into regions hosting refugees. Nevertheless, the decline in internal in-migration is less than a tenth of the refugee influx, implying that there is little evidence of refugees crowding out natives in local labor markets.

Is It Merely a Labor Supply Shock? Impacts of Syrian Migrants on Local Economies in Turkey

“…The findings from empirical studies on the subject are mixed. Seven of the studies that are closely related to ours are Akgündüz, van den Berg, and Hassink (2015), Del Carpio and Wagner (2015), Ceritoglu, Yunculer, Torun, and Tumen (2017), Aksu, Erzan, and Kırdar (2018), Bağır (2018), Akgündüz and Torun (2020), and Altındağ, Bakis, and Rozo (2020). While the first and the fourth studies argue that no net significant employment effect occurs on native workers, others claim a significant decline in employment for native workers who are at the same skill level as the Syrian migrants.…”

“…Third, we correct standard errors for serial correlation and a small number of clusters. Except for Akgündüz et al (2015) and Akgündüz et al (2018), none of the studies consistently account for serial correlation. They use heteroskedasticity robust or region-by-time clustered standard errors for testing purposes, which leads to over-rejection of the null hypothesis (Bertrand, Duflo, and Mullainathan 2004).…”

“… 3 The six articles are Akgündüz et al (2015), Akgündüz et al (2018), Ceritoglu et al (2017), Bağır (2018), Aksu et al (2018), and Öztürkler and Göksel (2015). …”

Refugee Inflow and Labor Market Outcomes in Brazil: Evidence from the Venezuelan Exodus

“…It is worth emphasizing that our study is limited to examining only labor market outcomes in Roraima. Previous studies show that outcomes such as housing or food prices or natives’ health can be affected by a higher demand induced by the refugee influx (Akgunduz, van den Berg, and Hassink 2015; Alix‐Garcia and Saah 2010). We have not examined other potential outcomes that could be affected by the refugee inflow, and inadequate public resources have led to increasing dissatisfaction among Roraima natives.…”

“…It is worth emphasizing that our study is limited to examining only labor market outcomes in Roraima. Previous studies show that outcomes such as housing or food prices or natives' health can be affected by a higher demand induced by the refugee influx (Akgunduz, van den Berg, and Hassink 2015;Alix-Garcia and Saah 2010).…”