The impact of foresight on policy-making: insights from the FORLEARN mutual learning process

Abstract

The paper presents recent insights from the ongoing FORLEARN project 1 , which aims to develop Foresight theory and practise by supporting the sharing of experience ("mutual learning") in Europe. Six functions of Foresight for policy-making are elaborated on:1. Informing policy: generating insights regarding the dynamics of change, future challenges and options, along with new ideas, and transmitting them to policy-makers as an input to policy conceptualisation and design.2. Facilitating policy implementation: enhancing the capacity for change within a given policy field by building a common awareness of the current situation and future challenges, as well as new networks and visions amongst stakeholders.3. Embedding participation in policy-making: facilitating the participation of civil society in the policy-making process, thereby improving its transparency and legitimacy.4. Supporting policy definition: jointly translating outcomes from the collective process into specific options for policy definition and implementation.5. Reconfiguring the policy system: in a way that makes it more apt to address long-term challenges.6. Symbolic function: indicating to the public that policy is based on rational information.The relationship between these functions and the tensions that can arise when a Foresight exercise attempts to address more than one function are discussed. Possible approaches for Foresight practice to better achieve the targeted impact on policy-making are outlined and emerging guidelines for improving Foresight practice are presented.

Identification and Ranking Indexes of Evaluation and Selection of Foresight Methods in Cultural Policy Making

“…The results of this research in aspects of method combination, capacity of participate experts are in agreement with studies of Popper (2008), Horton (1999), Gavigan and Scapolo (1999), Martin (1995) and in networking, process sophistication, favorite landscape are in agreement with Keenan (2007), Miles (2005), Da Costa et al (2008), Martine and Irvine (1989), Miles and Miles (2003) An interesting point in this research is culture role in evolution of evaluation and selection indexes of foresight methods in policy making. For importance of culture issue such as ability in making favorite cultural landscape for future, method ability in imaging possible and probable future in culture field, saving security of gathered data method ability in cultural participation, responsiveness to new evolutions, capacity to participate experts, penetration coefficient in culture field have more credit than pubic indexes of selecting foresight methods.…”

“…Information process and collecting power based on evidence, ability to produce coded on-time output (related to process), using creativity, capacity of combination with other methods, reliance on expert power, specialty, implicit knowledge and people experience, past information and statistics in foresight field, capacity of participation (Popper, 2008), reinforcing human resources and forces to use method (CIRIA, 2000;Karlsen and Karlsen, 2013), method ability in making landscape (Gavigan and Scapolo, 1999), reliance and credit of output (Miles 2005;Keenan 2007), ability of method in discoursing (Da Costa et al, 2008), method ability in identification priorities (Martin and Irvine, 1989) are indexes which are considered in selecting foresight methods. Poteralska and Sacio (2013) in a research under the title of "evaluating foresight projects of technology proposed that for daily increasing of foresight methods proposed that need to foresight evaluation is undeniable for daily increasing trend of foresight methods.…”

Future scenarios to inspire innovation

“…The value of the scenario exercise depends on the ways in which the resulting insights are implemented in on-going and forthcoming actions. However, the explicit and direct uses of scenarios in predefined decisionmaking contexts are just part of a broader social process (Da Costa et al, 2008). Also important indirect and diffuse links exist between developing and using scenarios and orienting innovation systems and research priorities (inspired by Andersen et al, 2007, p.8-9):…”

Interactive foresight on the Hungarian SMEs

“…The integral character of foresight is interpreted as an integral element of networked and distributed policy making by its policy informing, facilitating and advisory functions (Miles, 2008;Da Costa et al, 2008;Eriksson and Weber, 2008). In another interpretation, the technology foresight makes effort to involve itself into the economic and social issues associated with technology development and the democratic civil society as participants (Georghiou, 2001;Havas, 2011, Hronszky andFésüs, 2011).…”