The impact of family planning programs on fertility in developing countries: A critical evaluation

Hernandez, Donald J.

doi:10.1016/0049-089x(81)90005-3

Cited by 16 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…Trying to control for interactions between fertility reduction and development, studies covering most of the developing countries (Maudlin and Berelson 1978;Lapham and Maudlin 1984) have reported that about two-thirds of the fertility decline is associated with increases in de-velopment, with family-planning programs contributing another 15-20 percent in fertility reduction? Some analysts disagree, however, arguing that even this fraction gives too much credit to the efficacy of such programs (Hernandez 1981;Pritchett 1994).…”

Section: The Global Demographic Tr Ansi Tio Nmentioning

confidence: 99%

Labnotes from the Jeremiah Experiment: Hope for a Sustainable Transition

Kates¹

1995

Annals of the Association of American Geographers

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Independent Scholarorries come in two flavors-the bitter lemon of private fears; the sour W apples of public concern. Private fears of illness and loneliness, loss and failure, death and purgatory are universal. Public concerns arise and recede, occur, and reoccur. A recurrent set of public concerns revolve around our numbers and our sustenance: are we too many, will there be enough, is there too much, will humankind, indeed, any kind survive?I am a child of the great depression and a youth of the great second war. I came to adulthood as new public concerns dimmed the bright hopes of the great peace: the cold war, the difficult struggles for independence, hunger and poverty, and, overall, the nuclear holocaust. But amidst these dominant concerns, a specific set of questions arose to set the agenda of many, enough, and too much. Can our population continue to double and redouble within our and our children's lifetimes? Will there be food enough to feed the many, material sufficient for their needs and desires, energy adequate to move them, to raise their food, and to transform the materials that they need? Will the transformation of energy and materials impose incommensurate burdens on human health, habitat, well being, and our life support systems of nature and earth?

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Section: The Global Demographic Tr Ansi Tio Nmentioning

confidence: 99%

Labnotes from the Jeremiah Experiment: Hope for a Sustainable Transition

Kates¹

1995

Annals of the Association of American Geographers

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“…The literature includes a number of analyses on the effectiveness of family planning policies (Chandrasekaran and Hermalin 1975;Mauldin and Berelson 1978;Tsui and Bogue 1978;Demeny 1979;Tsui 1979a, 1979b;Hernandez 1981Hernandez , 1984. In these analyses fertility change is related by regression to variables suggested by theoretical reasons and by previous empirical research.…”

Section: Family Planning Examplementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Also, the family planning policies are carriers of modernizing values, with a potential for reducing the traditional preferences for large families. In addition, the stronger versions of these policies provide for strong incentives toward limiting the number of children, and promote a collective condemnation of high fertility norms and behaviors (Cuca 1979;Cuca and Pierce 1977;Hernandez 1981Hernandez , 1984Lapham and Mauldin 1972;Lapham and Simmons 1987).…”

Section: Family Planning Examplementioning

confidence: 99%

Bayesian Regression and the Expansion Method

Casetti¹

1992

Geographical Analysis

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This paper shows that within a Bayesian frame of reference the propensity to regard a model as invariant can be formulized into a prior probability density function of the parameters of an expanded formulation in which this model is encapsulated. The Bayesian approach allows to bring to the sugace the implications of alternative levels of commitment to invariance assumptions on the results of empirical analyses, and can quantijiy the comparative strength of alternative dri3 specijications. The "expanded Bayesian regressions are demonstrated by an example focusing upon the effectiveness of family planning. INTRODUCTIONThe mathematical models in the social sciences and elsewhere are very often estimated under implicit or explicit assumptions of "parametric stability" or "invariance." At the very least, they are presumed valid (read, stable) over the data sets from which they are estimated, and in fact the conventional estimation of population parameters presupposes that a model "holds" over the data employed to estimate it. The stability assumptions have an even deeper foundation and reach whenever a mathematical model is viewed as the expression of a "law, " or a candidate for law status. Invariance and universal validity are the distinguishing traits of laws.The alternative to stability is "instability" or "drift." Let us say that a model drifts across a context whenever it holds with different parameter values at different points of the context. As a research philosophy, the expansion methodology suggests that the stability of mathematical models should never be assumed. On the contrary, the contextual drift of models should be expected, hypothesized, searched for, and tested, and theories concerning the nexus between models and contexts should both guide and follow the investigations of contextual drift.However, the focus of this paper is not on the comparative merits of assuming contextual stability or contextual drift, but rather on how to investigate the impacts of these alternative assumptions on regression results, which brings us to the central issue of this presentation. This paper will show that, within a Bayesian frame of reference, the propensity to regard a model as invariant can be formalized Emilio Casetti I 59 into a prior probability density function of the parameters of an expanded formulation in which this model is encapsulated. This prior combines with a likelihood function reflecting sample information to produce a posterior probability density function on the basis of which hypotheses of parametric drift can be investigated and tested.In the specific Bayesian approach employed here, the intensity of commitment to assumptions of parametric invariance is represented by a parameter, g. By changing the value of this g, we can investigate the impact of alternative levels of commitment to invariance on the results of an empirical analysis, and we can determine at which level of commitment to invariance "drift hypotheses" are rejected. The notion of parametric stability is supported when the rejec...

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The Impact of Voluntary Family Planning Programs on Contraceptive Use, Fertility, and Population

Bongaarts

Hodgson

2022

Fertility Transition in the Developing World

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This chapter examines the long-standing debate about the effects of family planning programs on contraceptive behavior and fertility. We begin with a brief overview of the main rationale for family planning, namely the removal of obstacles to practicing contraception by women who want to space or limit their births. The central sections of the chapter then discuss the evidence on the effects of family planning programs. Three sources of evidence are examined: (1) controlled experiments; (2) natural experiments; and (3) statistical studies. These sources provide broadly comparable estimates of the effects of a high-quality family planning program: an increase of 25–35% in contraceptive prevalence and a decline of about 1.5 births per woman in the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) compared to a population without family planning support. The statistical analyses examine the roles of family planning programs in changing contraceptive demand and its satisfaction and the pattern of wanted and unwanted fertility. Demand refers to the proportion of women who do not want to get pregnant and its satisfaction refers to the proportion of women with a demand that practice contraception. As expected, family planning programs raise the satisfaction of demand for contraception and reduce unwanted fertility. Contrary to common conclusions made in economic theories of fertility, family planning programs have a substantial impact on demand for contraception and on wanted fertility. We conclude with a discussion of the criticisms of family planning programs and the claims that these programs have at best a small impact and are not cost-effective.

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The impact of family planning programs on fertility in developing countries: A critical evaluation

Cited by 16 publications

References 42 publications

Labnotes from the Jeremiah Experiment: Hope for a Sustainable Transition

Labnotes from the Jeremiah Experiment: Hope for a Sustainable Transition

Bayesian Regression and the Expansion Method

The Impact of Voluntary Family Planning Programs on Contraceptive Use, Fertility, and Population

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