The impact of demographic change in the balance between formal and informal old-age care in Spain. Results from a mixed microsimulation–agent-based model

Spijker, Jeroen; Devolder, Daniel; Zueras, Pilar

doi:10.1017/s0144686x20001026

Cited by 15 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…In the case of Southern European countries, including Spain, this is also an issue [ 17 – 19 ], as public institutions do not have enough capacity to manage the provision of care for the elderly, reason why the family is still the fundamental basis for elderly support and care there. In contrast, in Nordic and Western European countries the State is the main provider of such care [ 20 – 23 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The contribution of social participation to differences in life expectancy and healthy years among the older population: A comparison between Chile, Costa Rica and Spain

et al. 2021

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We study the health trajectories of the population aged over 60, comparing between one European and two Latin American countries (Spain, Chile and Costa Rica) which have similar longevity patterns. Our focus is on functional limitation and mortality risks, considering differences by gender, education and social participation. Data come from national panel surveys (EPS, CRELES, SHARE). Multistate modelling is used to estimate transition probabilities between two health states: healthy to unhealthy, unhealthy to healthy as well as the transition to death from healthy or unhealthy states, to estimate the duration of stay in a specific state (computing healthy and unhealthy life expectancies) and the effect of the selected covariates. Results show that older Costa Ricans have the smallest gender gap in life expectancy but women have a lower healthy life expectancy compared to those in Chile and Spain. Participation in social activities leads to higher healthy life expectancy among the elderly in Costa Rica and Spain, whilst there were no relevant educational differences observed in longevity in the analysed countries. To conclude: despite the different patterns observed in health transitions and survival across the three countries, social participation is associated with greater health and longevity among people of old age, with little effect coming from educational attainment. Public policies should therefore be aimed at reducing unhealthy life years and dependency at advanced ages by promoting more engagement in social activities, especially among vulnerable groups who are more likely to experience impairment from a younger age.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The contribution of social participation to differences in life expectancy and healthy years among the older population: A comparison between Chile, Costa Rica and Spain

et al. 2021

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“…The rest are estimates obtained from our kinship microsimulation model. See also Spijker et al (2020).…”

Section: Comparing the Results Of The Simulation Of Ancestors In Different Microsimulation Models Of Kinshipmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It allows to comprehensively study the demand and supply of informal care for elderly persons in situations of dependence, based on their available network of relatives. The model was recently briefly described and used to study the impact of demographic change in the balance between formal and informal old-age care in Spain (Spijker, Devolder, & Zueras, 2020) However, the parameter specifications and functions required in the microsimulation kinship and ABM models were suppressed for reasons of space. Moreover, the current version also has several new additions, including the possibility for an individual to separate from their partner.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

DEMOCARE: A mixed kinship microsimulation and Agent-Based models for studying family supply of time for care of elderly people with disabilities

Devolder¹,

Spijker²,

Zueras³

2021

Preprint

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This paper presents a mixed model for studying the amount of time of care available from family members of elderly people with disabilities, mainly of irreversible type, like Alzheimer or other neurological diseases. This model starts with data obtained from a classical microsimulation model of kinship which provides descending genealogies of elderly persons, based on demographic parameters specifics to the population studied. These genealogies are then fed to an Agent-Based model which follow these elderly persons and their kin for age 50 until their death in order to study the balance between the demand for care of disabled persons and the supply of care by their kin. This supply depends on the situation of these kin, typically of their labour status as well as the eventual needs for care of their own families. The paper reviews the methodology for the construction of microsimulation models of kinship and presents our own implementation. It also details the specifications of the Agent-based part of the overall model. Finally, we present some results using Spanish data.

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“…As mentioned in the Introduction, little agent-based modelling work has been done on informal social care; one study from Spain was directed more at demographic modelling rather than simulating policy outcomes [ 21 ]. We hope that by constructing this detailed simulation framework and providing it to the research community, other colleagues may make use of these resources to examine other aspects of the complex world of social care policy.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Our previous work has explored social care provision and policy solutions using ABMs [15][16][17]. Social care is not a frequent topic for modelling, and to our knowledge only one other agent-based simulation explicitly including informal and formal social care has been published besides our own work: an examination of the impact of demographic change on formal and informal care in Spain [21]. While the topics are related, the model produced by Spijker et al is significantly different in its construction and intended purpose.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Social and child care provision in kinship networks: An agent-based model

Gostoli

Silverman

2020

PLoS ONE

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Providing for the needs of the vulnerable is a critical component of social and health policy-making. In particular, caring for children and for vulnerable older people is vital to the wellbeing of millions of families throughout the world. In most developed countries, this care is provided through both formal and informal means, and is therefore governed by complex policies that interact in non-obvious ways with other areas of policy-making. In this paper we present an agent-based model of social and child care provision in the UK, in which agents can provide informal care or pay for private care for their relatives. Agents make care decisions based on numerous factors including their health status, employment, financial situation, and social and physical distance to those in need. Simulation results show that the model can produce plausible patterns of care need and availability, and therefore can provide an important aid to this complex area of policy-making. We conclude that the model’s use of kinship networks for distributing care and the explicit modelling of interactions between social care and child care will enable policy-makers to develop more informed policy interventions in these critical areas. “The moral test of government is how it treats those who are in the dawn of life, the children; those who are in the twilight of life, the aged; and those in the shadows of life, the sick, the needy and the handicapped.” — Hubert Humphrey Jr.

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The impact of demographic change in the balance between formal and informal old-age care in Spain. Results from a mixed microsimulation–agent-based model

Cited by 15 publications

References 43 publications

The contribution of social participation to differences in life expectancy and healthy years among the older population: A comparison between Chile, Costa Rica and Spain

The contribution of social participation to differences in life expectancy and healthy years among the older population: A comparison between Chile, Costa Rica and Spain

DEMOCARE: A mixed kinship microsimulation and Agent-Based models for studying family supply of time for care of elderly people with disabilities

Social and child care provision in kinship networks: An agent-based model

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