The impact of climate change, human interference, scale and modeling uncertainties on the estimation of aquifer properties and river flow components

Santos, R.M.B.; Fernandes, Luís Filipe Sanches; Moura, João Paulo; Pereira, Mário; Pacheco, Fernando António Leal

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.09.001

Cited by 87 publications

(46 citation statements)

References 80 publications

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“…The Beça River basin catches an average precipitation of 1440 mm·yr −1 , with a range of 650-2400 mm·yr −1 . The records of average temperature and annual precipitation pertaining the period 1978-2006, but discarding the anomalous years of 2000 and 2001, indicate overall heating and drying trends of +0.78°C·decade −1 and −300 mm·decade −1 , respectively (Santos et al, 2014). These records are illustrated in Fig.…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 85%

“…Pacheco, 2013, 2014; Pacheco and Weijden, 2012aWeijden, , 2012bWeijden, , 2014aWeijden, , 2014bPacheco et al, , 2014Pacheco et al, , 2015Sanches Fernandes et al, 2010, 2013Valle Junior et al, 2014a. In the study area, Mike Basin has previously been used with daily discharge rates to estimate river flow components within the period 1978-2006, namely the overland flow, inter and base flows (main results available in Santos et al, 2014).…”

Section: Watershed Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Calibration is considered satisfactory when this coefficient is larger than 0.6. In the study by Santos et al (2014), carried out in the Beça River basin, the NashSutcliffe index was reported to be 0.75, meaning that the NAM rainfall-runoff model was able to accurately simulate the relevant hydrologic processes in that basin. In the last stage, the NAM algorithm has to run for a specific record of climatic data to obtain estimates of the flow components.…”

Section: Watershed Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Firstly, temperature and precipitation were corrected for bias and then used in the NAM algorithm to simulate daily stream flows within the period October 2071 to September 2099, under the B2 and A2 emission scenarios. The simulated flows were based on the same automatically calibrated NAM parameters and optimized values as those used by Santos et al (2014). Secondly, the daily stream flows were converted into monthly averages, from which water column depths were estimated by:…”

Section: Flow Velocities and Water Column Depthsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Since 1998 a significant portion (N40%; Santos et al, 2014) of river water reaching the Bragadas dam is diverted to an adjacent watershed, the Tâmega River basin. As a consequence of prominent water retention, river water downstream the dam became scarce during the summer months, forming small pools dispersed along the water course.…”

Section: Water Qualitymentioning

confidence: 99%

See 4 more Smart Citations

Impacts of climate change and land-use scenarios on Margaritifera margaritifera, an environmental indicator and endangered species

Santos

Fernandes

Varandas

et al. 2015

Science of The Total Environment

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105

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• Develop a verification scheme to check stress on M. margaritifera based on thresholds • Assess the impact of future climate change in conservation status of M. margaritifera • Assess the impact of land-use in habitat requirements of M. margaritifera • Propose conservation measures to prevent extinction of M. margaritifera in Portugal a b s t r a c t a r t i c l e i n f o In this study, we assess the impacts of future climate and land-use in the Beça River (northern Portugal) under different scenarios and how this will translate into the conservation status of the endangered pearl mussel Margaritifera margaritifera (Linnaeus, 1758). This species is currently present in several stretches of the Beça River that still hold adequate ecological conditions. However, the species is threatened by projected declines in precipitation for the 21st century, with implication on the river flows and water depths that might decrease below the species requisites. This situation could be especially critical during summer conditions since the ecological flows may not be assured and several river stretches may be converted into stagnant isolated pools. The habitat connectivity will also be affected with reverberating effects on the mobility of Salmo trutta, the host of M. margaritifera, with consequences in the reproduction and recruitment of pearl mussels. In addition, humanrelated threats mostly associated with the presence of dams and an predicted increases in wildfires in the future. While the presence of dams may decrease even further the connectivity and river flow, with wildfires the major threat will be related to the wash out of burned areas during storms, eventually causing the disappearance of the mussels, especially the juveniles. In view of future climate and land-use change scenarios, conservation strategies are proposed, including the negotiation of ecological flows with the dam promoters, the replanting of riparian vegetation along the water course and the reintroduction of native tree species throughout the catchment.

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Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 85%

Section: Watershed Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Watershed Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Flow Velocities and Water Column Depthsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Water Qualitymentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Impacts of climate change and land-use scenarios on Margaritifera margaritifera, an environmental indicator and endangered species

Santos

Fernandes

Varandas

et al. 2015

Science of The Total Environment

Self Cite

105

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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The sensitivity of water availability to changes in the aridity index and other factors—A probabilistic analysis in the Budyko space

Gudmundsson

Greve

Seneviratne

2016

Geophysical Research Letters

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One of the pending questions in the context of global change is whether climatic drivers or other factors have stronger influences on water availability. Here we present an approach that allows to estimate the probability that changes in the aridity index have a larger effect on water availability than equal relative changes in other factors. The analysis builds upon a probabilistic extension of the Budyko framework, which is subject to an analytical sensitivity assessment. The results show that changes in water availability are only dominated by changes in the aridity index in very humid climates. This implies that projected intensifications of aridity in drylands may have less influence on water availability than commonly assumed. Instead, other climatic or nonclimatic factors are dominating. The analysis does hence allow to map regions in which water availability is more sensitive to equal relative changes in either the aridity index or all other factors.

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Biogeochemical asynchrony: Ecosystem drivers of seasonal concentration regimes across the Great Lakes Basin

Meter

Chowdhury

Byrnes

et al. 2019

Limnology & Oceanography

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Changes in seasonal nutrient dynamics are occurring across a range of climates and land use types. Although it is known that seasonal patterns in nutrient availability are key drivers of both stream metabolism and eutrophication, there has been little success in developing a comprehensive understanding of seasonal variations in nutrient export across watersheds or of the relationship between nutrient seasonality and watershed characteristics. In the present study, we have used concentration and discharge data from more than 200 stations across U.S. and Canadian watersheds to identify (1) archetypal seasonal concentration regimes for nitrate, soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP), and total phosphorus, and (2) dominant watershed controls on these regimes across a gradient of climate, land use, and topography. Our analysis shows that less impacted watersheds, with more forested and wetland area, most commonly exhibit concentration regimes that are in phase with discharge, with concentration lows occurring during summer low-flow periods. Agricultural watersheds also commonly exhibit in-phase behavior, though the seasonality is usually muted compared to that seen in less impacted areas. With increasing urban area, however, nutrient concentrations frequently become essentially aseasonal or even exhibit clearly outof-phase behavior. In addition, our data indicate that seasonal SRP concentration patterns may be strongly influenced by proximal controls such as the presence of dams and reservoirs. In all, these results suggest that human activity is significantly altering nutrient concentration regimes, with large potential consequences for both in-stream metabolism and eutrophication risk in downstream waterbodies.

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The impact of climate change, human interference, scale and modeling uncertainties on the estimation of aquifer properties and river flow components

Cited by 87 publications

References 80 publications

Impacts of climate change and land-use scenarios on Margaritifera margaritifera, an environmental indicator and endangered species

Impacts of climate change and land-use scenarios on Margaritifera margaritifera, an environmental indicator and endangered species

The sensitivity of water availability to changes in the aridity index and other factors—A probabilistic analysis in the Budyko space

Biogeochemical asynchrony: Ecosystem drivers of seasonal concentration regimes across the Great Lakes Basin

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