The growth of high ages in England and Wales, 1635-2106

Thatcher, A. R.

doi:10.1007/978-3-642-11520-2_11

Cited by 6 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…4). In view of predictions of very rapid growth of the number of centenarians (Thatcher, 2010), the results based on the exponential regression for n may capture the most likely development.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Human life is unlimited – but short

Rootzén

Zholud

2017

Extremes

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Does the human lifespan have an impenetrable biological upper limit which ultimately will stop further increase in life lengths? This question is important for understanding aging, and for society, and has led to intense controversies. Demographic data for humans has been interpreted as showing existence of a limit, or even as an indication of a decreasing limit, but also as evidence that a limit does not exist. This paper studies what can be inferred from data about human mortality at extreme age. We find that in western countries and Japan and after age 110 the risk of dying is constant and is about 47% per year. Hence data does not support that there is a finite upper limit to the human lifespan. Still, given the present stage of biotechnology, it is unlikely that during the next 25 years anyone will live longer than 128 years in these countries. Data, remarkably, shows no difference in mortality after age 110 between sexes, between ages, or between different lifestyles or genetic backgrounds. These results, and the analysis methods developed in this paper, can help testing biological theories of aging and aid confirmation of success of efforts to find a cure for aging.A discussion of this paper will follow in a later issue of Extremes Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Human life is unlimited – but short

Rootzén

Zholud

2017

Extremes

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“…Some reports in this area are highly sensationalistic, particularly those traceable to financiers or CEO’s touting novel procedures that promise to “disrupt” mortality (Sifferlin, 2017). But there are also legitimate scientific voices that suggest that already-existing generations may attain maximal lifespans in excess of 125 years (Thatcher, 2010: 200; Rootzén and Zholud, 2017). Although extant studies of supercentenarians do not reveal many common features, gender is one key linking factor (women outnumber men among supercentenarians), while access to modern medical procedures is another (Maier et al, 2010: 319–320).…”

Section: Naturalizing the Centennialmentioning

confidence: 99%

Naturalizing the centennial: History, memory, and the limits of human lifespans

Morrow

2020

Memory Studies

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Recent studies of centennials focus on explaining the social and political contexts for such commemorations. This paper develops an alternative, naturalistic theory of these long-range anniversaries. The paper starts by describing the value of a naturalistic account of complex cultural formations, and by reviewing basic demographic and physiological facts underlying centennial observances. Next, the paper provides a novel taxonomy of three central social functions of centennials, highlighting their roles as standards of greatness, mirrors of progress, and spurs to renovation. Each of these functions reflects the existence of certain predictable limits to human lifespans. The paper concludes by considering some transformations in form and function that centennials might undergo in a potential future of extended longevity.

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“…He was actively engaged in demographic research until his death. One of his last papers, The Compression of Deaths above the Mode , is published in this volume of Demographic Research (Thatcher et al 2010). Roger signed the copyright agreement for the paper on January 24, just a few weeks before his death.…”

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confidence: 99%