volume 15, issue S1, P151-184 2009
DOI: 10.1017/s1357321700005559
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Michael Murphy

Abstract: ABSTRACTAssumptions about future mortality are more important than those for factors such as fertility, migration, disability trends or real interest rates for cost projections of the U.S. Old Age, Survivors, Disability and Health Insurance scheme. Recently, one factor has been assumed to be the key driver of future mortality in both official British population projections and actuarial ones: a ‘cohort effect’ associated with a group who were born in a period centred on the early 1930s who have been identified…

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