The Gnat and the Bull Do Climate Outlook Forums Make a Difference?

Gerlak, Andrea K.; Mason, Simon J.; Daly, Meaghan; Liverman, Diana; Guido, Zack; Vaughan, Catherine; Knudson, Chris; Greene, Christina; Buizer, James L.; Jacobs, Katharine L.

doi:10.1175/bams-d-19-0008.1

Cited by 12 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 62 publications

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“…The past few decades have seen an increase in awareness of the importance of CIS in Sub Saharan Africa and an allocation of resources towards the development of these services. Government and civil society institutions have invested in strengthening CIS, for example through the regional climate outlook forums (Gerlak et al., 2020; Ogallo et al., 2008; Patt et al., 2007) and development of national and sub‐national meteorological service capacity to support CIS (Mwanga et al., 2017).…”

Section: Status Of Holistic Cis In Africamentioning

confidence: 99%

Develop medium‐ to long‐term climate information services to enhance comprehensive climate risk management in Africa

et al. 2023

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Increasing climate change risks in Africa, emerging from global warming and their interaction with non‐climate risks such as market, have increased the need for comprehensive Climate Risk Management (CRM) that considers both climatic and non‐climatic risks and enables actions that address the underlying drivers of vulnerability to these risks. However, comprehensive CRM requires holistic Climate Information Services (CIS), that is, CIS that balances between components focused on provision of short‐ and long‐term climate information for both local and non‐local decision makers. In this article, we ask: to what extent is CIS in Africa holistic? We review recent and ongoing CIS interventions in Africa to determine whether a balance of components between short‐ and long‐term CIS for local and non‐local decision makers is achieved for holistic CIS. We find a focus on provision of short‐term, that is, Sub‐Seasonal‐to‐Seasonal (S2S) CIS for local and non‐local decision makers, with limited focus on medium‐ to long‐term (MLT) CIS, particularly MLT CIS for local decision makers which represents the biggest gap to achieving holistic CIS in Africa. We present a supported case that ensuring holistic CIS in Africa will require a portfolio‐based approach to CIS development, particularly focusing on MLT CIS for local decision makers. We further highlight the need for integration of this MLT CIS for local decision makers into existing CIS. Achieving this will require: (a) experimentation and innovation with different CIS formats, products and timeframes to enable learning and flexibility to achieve desired goals; (b) capacity development of producers and consumers of climate information to ensure that they have the skills and expertise to understand and generate, and articulate needs and consume MLT CIS respectively; and (c) coordinated allocation of financial resources to ensure that all components of the holistic CIS are advanced.

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Section: Status Of Holistic Cis In Africamentioning

confidence: 99%

Develop medium‐ to long‐term climate information services to enhance comprehensive climate risk management in Africa

et al. 2023

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Exploring the landscape of seasonal forecast provision by Global Producing Centres

et al. 2022

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Despite the growing demand for seasonal climate forecasts, there is limited understanding of the landscape of organisations providing this critically important climate information. This study attempts to fill this gap by presenting results from an in-depth dialogue with the organisations entrusted with the provision of seasonal forecasts by the World Meteorological Organisation, known as the Global Producing Centres for Long-Range Forecasts (GPCs-LRF). The results provide an overview and detailed description of the organisational setup, mandate, target audience of GPCs-LRF and their interactions with other centres. Looking beyond the GPCs-LRF to other centres providing seasonal forecasts, some of which have been rapidly taking prominent places in this landscape, revealed a heterogeneous and still maturing community of practice, with an increasing number of players and emerging efforts to produce multi-model ensemble forecasts. The dialogues pointed at the need to not only improve climate models and produce more skilful climate forecasts, but also to improve the transformation of the forecasts into useful and usable products. Finally, using the lenses of credibility, salience and legitimacy, we explore ways to bridge the fragmentation of the information offered across the organisations considered and the people involved in the delivery and use of seasonal forecasts. The paper concludes by suggesting ways to address the boundary crossing between science, policy and society in the context of seasonal climate prediction.

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