The future of wind forecasting and utility operations

Ahlstrom,; Jones, L.; Zavadil, R.; Grant, W.

doi:10.1109/mpae.2005.1524621

Cited by 93 publications

(28 citation statements)

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“…Ahlstrom et al [330] discussed one recent wind integration study performed by Xcel Energy and analyzed the results. The authors also investigated issues related to integrating wind forecasting into the control room, the integration of EMS with wind forecasting, and the role of wind forecasting in the real-time power system prediction.…”

Section: Wind Integration Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Wind power forecasting : state-of-the-art 2009.

Monteiro¹,

Bessa²,

Miranda³

et al. 2009

300

264

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Section: Wind Integration Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Wind power forecasting : state-of-the-art 2009.

Monteiro¹,

Bessa²,

Miranda³

et al. 2009

300

264

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“…These units must also carry additional reserves to maintain system reliability should an unexpected drop in wind occur, as the power output from wind farms is also relatively difficult to predict [3]. However, even when state-of-the-art methods of forecasting are employed, the next day hourly predicted wind output can vary by 10%-15% of the total wind capacity as reported in [4], which can result in thermal units being over-and under-committed [2]. Furthermore, in certain systems wind is allowed to self-dispatch, so forecast output is not included in the day-ahead schedule.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Base-Load Cycling on a System With Significant Wind Penetration

Troy

Denny

O’Malley

2010

IEEE Trans. Power Syst.

220

120

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Abstract-Certain developments in the electricity sector may result in suboptimal operation of base-load generating units in countries worldwide. Despite the fact they were not designed to operate in a flexible manner, increasing penetration of variable power sources coupled with the deregulation of the electricity sector could lead to these base-load units being shut down or operated at partload levels more often. This cycling operation would have onerous effects on the components of these units and potentially lead to increased outages and significant costs. This paper shows the serious impact increasing levels of wind power will have on the operation of base-load units. Those base-load units which are not large contributors of primary reserve to the system and have relatively shorter start-up times were found to be the most impacted as wind penetration increases. A sensitivity analysis shows the presence of storage or interconnection on a power system actually exacerbates base-load cycling until very high levels of wind power are reached. Finally, it is shown that if the total cycling costs of the individual base-load units are taken into consideration in the scheduling model, subsequent cycling operation can be reduced.Index Terms-Costs, interconnected power systems, power system modeling, pumped storage power generation, thermal power generation, wind power generation.

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“…Over a time frame of a few minutes, it is possible to experience sudden changes in wind speed, such as gusts or lulls. The predictability of wind in the short-term is still low, and, even with elaborate forecasting tools, it is often difficult to beat persistency (Giebel 2003, Ahlstrom et al 2005. The intermittency of wind is directly transmitted into wind power, which dramatically reduces the marketing value of wind (Milligan and Porter 2006).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Supplying Baseload Power and Reducing Transmission Requirements by Interconnecting Wind Farms

Archer

Jacobson

2007

Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

228

113

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Wind is the world's fastest growing electric energy source. Because it is intermittent, though, wind is not used to supply baseload electric power today. Interconnecting wind farms through the transmission grid is a simple and effective way of reducing deliverable wind power swings caused by wind intermittency. As more farms are interconnected in an array, wind speed correlation among sites decreases and so does the probability that all sites experience the same wind regime at the same time. Consequently, the array behaves more and more similarly to a single farm with steady wind speed and thus steady deliverable wind power.In this study, benefits of interconnecting wind farms were evaluated for 19 sites, located in the Midwestern United States, with annual average wind speeds at 80 m above ground, the hub height of modern wind turbines, greater than 6.9 m/s (class 3 or greater).We found that an average of 33% and a maximum of 47% of yearly-averaged wind power from interconnected farms can be used as reliable, baseload electric power. Equally significant, interconnecting multiple wind farms to a common point, then connecting that point to a far-away city can allow the long-distance portion of transmission capacity to be reduced, for example, by 20% with only a 1.6% loss of energy. 2Although most parameters, such as intermittency, improved less than linearly as the number of interconnected sites increased, no saturation of the benefits was found. Thus, the benefits of interconnection continue to increase with more and more interconnected sites.3

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The future of wind forecasting and utility operations

Cited by 93 publications

References 0 publications

Wind power forecasting : state-of-the-art 2009.

Wind power forecasting : state-of-the-art 2009.

Base-Load Cycling on a System With Significant Wind Penetration

Supplying Baseload Power and Reducing Transmission Requirements by Interconnecting Wind Farms

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